Hendrick Motorsports’ Jimmie Johnson has five NASCAR Sprint Cup wins but has one top-10 finish in his past seven races.
Joe Gibbs Racing’s Denny Hamlin has five wins but has two finishes of 34th or worse in his past three races.
Richard Childress Racing’s Kevin Harvick has three wins and the points lead but could fall behind Johnson and Hamlin when the Chase for the Sprint Cup field is seeded before the championship run begins.
Gibbs’ Kyle Busch made his presence known with a stellar performance at Bristol Motor Speedway — and his third win of the year — but has a string of inconsistent runs in the nine previous races.
Hendrick’s Jeff Gordon sits second in the standings but hasn’t won a race this season and has only two top-10 finishes in his past five outings.
Only two races remain before NASCAR’s annual playoff kicks off, begging the question: Who is the championship favorite this season?
It’s a label most drivers are only-too-willing to pass along to someone else in order to ease the pressure on their own teams and to sidestep any potential jinx that moniker might create. But with Harvick’s win at Michigan two weeks ago — an outstanding performance that netted his first non-restrictor-plate victory since 2006 — many believe that he made a statement.
Harvick has led the standings for 15 consecutive weeks and 19 overall this season. His worst points position all season has been fifth, which came after the season opener at Daytona, and he’s in position to fall to no worse than fourth when the Chase opens after the next two races.
So as he enjoys the final weekend off of the season, Harvick finds himself the one tabbed as the favorite to end Johnson’s four-year hold on the Cup title.
Yet, it’s clearly necessary to be cautious in making any sweeping statements concerning favorites at this point. Historically, there’s no one better than Johnson and his crew chief, Chad Knaus, at managing the pressure and difficulty of the Chase. And Busch can be a potent threat if he gets on his game consistently during the Chase. So can Hamlin and crew chief Mike Ford; Hamlin has already stated his team has yet to reach its peak this year.
And technically, only two drivers — Harvick and Gordon — are locked into the field regardless of whether they even start the next two races. Busch will lock in once he takes the flag for the coming race at Atlanta Motor Speedway.
Still, two things are clear: The majority of the field seems to be set. And Harvick has been consistent enough to maintain control for such a lengthy stretch that he is impossible to overlook — even to the competition.
“Every since he took the point lead, I figured he’s the favorite,” Hamlin said. “He’s been rock solid, in my opinion. He hasn’t had any mechanical failures, really, to speak of. (He's done) the small stuff, just been solid. That’s what wins championships, not winning five, six, seven, 10 races.”
Still, Hamlin leaves a little wiggle room when making his pronouncement.
“Personally, the race fan in me says I’m as excited for the championship this year as anyone,” he said. “To me, I feel like it’s really wide open for a lot of guys. Other than Harvick, who’s been rock solid, there’s nobody that has really stepped up and been on it every single week. I have a lot of faith in our race team.
“I feel like we could go on a run. But there’s honestly eight guys that can do that. Now you got the Roush (Fenway Racing teams) that are running good enough to win the championship now. It’s really wide open, so I’m excited just to get to see that part.”
Roush Fenway’s Greg Biffle agrees his group has picked up its game overall.
Can that make one of its drivers — Biffle, Carl Edwards and Matt Kenseth are on track to make the field — the one to watch this time?
“I think the Chase is going to be real interesting, really up in the air,” Biffle said. “I feel like we have a strong chance of doing well in the 10 races.”
He points out that Johnson’s team hasn’t been as strong lately as in recent years. What that might mean overall, though, has yet to be seen.
Johnson acknowledges his team has been thinking ahead to the Chase and preparing for it as well. But he looks at Harvick as a true championship threat this year.
“I do think that those guys should be considered the favorites,” he said. “If you look at their success on all types of track, the 29 is doing a great job collecting a lot of points everywhere we go. ... They’re on fire right now; they’re doing a great job.
“In racing with Kevin over the years and being around him, I’ve always known that this is the most important thing to him. ... He has the talent, the team does and they have it all on the line right now and they’re doing a great job. We’re definitely working hard to catch those guys.”
Harvick, meanwhile, is keeping his eyes on Johnson.
He quickly passes the favorite title over to the four-time defending champion.
“I still think the No. 48 team is the team to beat,” he said. “No matter how good somebody runs, I still think that those guys are the ones to beat just for the fact that they have won it the last four years being in a somewhat similar situation. I’d like to just leave it all over there and let us keep doing what we are doing. Obviously, we’ve run well, and we feel like we can contend for a championship.
“But contending and winning are two different things, and I think we’ve shown we can win races and have shown that we can run good. But I still think until somebody completes the deal and knocks them off, they have to be the ones you have to beat just because they have done it four times.”
Gordon, too, is keeping a wary eye on his teammate.
The way he sees it, it’s impossible not to.
“I don't think you can ever count the No. 48 out,” Gordon said. “Until they show a weakness, how can you count them out? What I mean by that is we've seen them through the last four years show weaknesses at times during the season, but they always seem to rebound when it really counts and comes down to that Chase. They step it up in a way that you can't compete with. And so, until they don't do that, you've got to keep them as a favorite.”
Still, he gives a nod to Harvick, saying his is the strongest team right now.
Like most of the field, Gordon concedes things are certainly looking favorable for the RCR group at this point.
Others, though, are hoping they have ramped up their own performances enough to become the spoilers in this season’s title run.
That group includes Busch, who reminded drivers of his potency at Bristol. As he said, once the Chase begins, everything can change — and that's something everyone is keeping in mind as the Chase nears.
“We hit reset and we've got 10 weeks to show what we've got and hopefully it's enough,” he said.
