By Bob Pockrass
Only a few days removed from the conclusion of the 2020 season, some would say it’s a little too early to look ahead to 2021.
But that’s what we’re here for – to get the 2021 conversation started.
Here's our list ranking drivers 1-to-30 three months before the 2021 Cup Series season begins in February:
1. Kevin Harvick
He won nine races in 2020, and with teams not focused much on car development thanks to the Next Gen car coming in 2022, the 2021 season could look much like 2020.
2. Brad Keselowski
He didn’t win the title but seemed consistent across most tracks in 2020. And 2021 is another contract year for him.
3. Denny Hamlin
It feels wrong to say a guy who won seven races in 2020 isn’t in the top two. But it’s not rare for some of those near the top to get leapfrogged over time.
4. Chase Elliott
He won the title thanks to three wins in the final five races. Will the Cup championship swagger mean anything?
5. Ryan Blaney
If not for a sorry opening in three playoff races, 2020 could have been a very different year for Blaney. Don’t be surprised if the threatens to win the title.
6. Kyle Busch
Will Kyle Busch have a new crew chief in 2021? And if so, would that make a huge difference? Busch should win more races next year no matter who will be the crew chief for his car.
7. Martin Truex Jr.
Truex finished seventh in the standings in 2020, and while he will be in his second year with crew chief James Small, it is easy to see him having a similar 2021 season.
8. Joey Logano
The guy led the opening stage of the finale and had the lead in the final stage at Phoenix before being passed by Elliott. How in the world is he this low? Is the fact that he seems to run better in even-numbered seasons reason enough?
9. Kyle Larson
Expect Larson to be solid in his first year at Hendrick. He will win races – the only question will be his consistency.
10. William Byron
The young Byron was 14th in the standings in 2020, and expect big things from him and new crew chief Rudy Fugle, who comes to Hendrick from Kyle Busch Motorsports.
11. Alex Bowman
Bowman was sixth in points in 2020 and had a solid end to the season. This ranking is more about the potential improvement of others, not the decline of Bowman.
12. Kurt Busch
Busch will win a race or two, but he likely will be more of a top 10 finisher rather than a top five.
13. Aric Almirola
Almirola was a little disappointing in 2020, finishing 15th in the standings. The second year paired with Mike Bugarewicz should pay some dividends.
14. Matt DiBenedetto
Fighting for his racing job once again in 2021, expect DiBenedetto to have a similar year to 2020, where he finished 13th in points.
15. Christopher Bell
In his second year in Cup and first year at Joe Gibbs Racing (replacing Erik Jones), Bell should make the playoffs. He still needs to have a crew chief named for him for next season.
16. Austin Dillon
Certainly it was a little bit of a surprise that he won a race to make the playoffs, but Dillon finished 11th overall in points – meaning his playoffs were better than five others who made the playoffs. That has to mean something. Plus the ECR engine package helped boost the Hendrick package at the end of the season as part of their new collaboration.
17. Tyler Reddick
Reddick was 19th in the standings as a rookie and should improve. The question is by how much?
18. Chase Briscoe
The replacement of Clint Bowyer should have a solid rookie season. The team has yet to announce a crew chief.
19. Cole Custer
Custer won at Kentucky to make the playoffs but will need to show more consistency to prove he is a top-16 driver.
20. Chris Buescher
He was 21st in the standings in his first year at Roush Fenway. So this ranking is saying that appears to be an accurate assessment of where this team is at.
21. Ryan Preece
Preece still hasn’t locked in a deal with JTG Daugherty Racing. He expects to return but the team still needs to secure a charter for his car. Assuming they get one, this would be a big jump after his 29th finish in the standings last year.
22. Ryan Newman
If Newman had not missed the three races after his scary Daytona 500 crash and earned the average of per-race points that he did in 2020, that would have put him 22nd in the standings.
23. Erik Jones
The replacement for Bubba Wallace at Richard Petty Motorsports should be higher than where Wallace finished 2020. But that was 22nd, and the big question is whether this team will retain the caliber of equipment in the last year of the current car. Jerry Baxter returns as crew chief.
24. Bubba Wallace
The new 23XI Racing team owned by Michael Jordan and Denny Hamlin has talked optimistically about their first season. Going to have to see it first, though, to predict Wallace will finish any better in 2021 than he did in 2020, when he finished 22nd in the standings. Mike Wheeler, the former Hamlin crew chief and Leavine Family Racing competition director, will be the crew chief.
25. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Stenhouse showed some speed at times but not enough to think there will be wholesale improvement over his 24th-place finish in the standings in 2020.
26. Ross Chastain
The new driver of the No. 42 Chip Ganassi Racing car likely will have some growing pains, but this will be a year about gaining experience.
27. John Hunter Nemechek
Front Row Motorsports typically doesn’t announce its driver lineup until December or January, but assuming Nemechek returns, he hopes to build on his 27th spot in the standings. But, frankly, he needs to find the wall less often.
28. Michael McDowell
This is an unfair ranking considering McDowell was 23rd in the standings in 2020, a very solid year for an FRM car. But the drivers who have moved ahead of him are expected to show more improvement in 2021.
29. Daniel Suarez
The driver for the new Trackhouse Racing team owned by Justin Marks, Suarez likely is going to be working for another building team in 2021. The team has not announced a crew chief.
30. Quin Houff
Assuming he returns to StarCom in the second year of his original multi-year deal, Houff is listed here as the only other full-time driver that has been announced. Rick Ware Racing is expected to have three or four full-time cars (and if four, all with charters) and Spire will have two to make for the total of 36 charters. They have not announced their lineups.
Stat of Note
Four drivers account for Hendrick Motorsports’ 13 Cup championships: Jimmie Johnson (7), Jeff Gordon (4), Terry Labonte (1) and Chase Elliott (1). But its been under the watch of five crew chiefs: Chad Knaus (7), Ray Evernham (3), Robbie Loomis (1), Gary DeHart (1) and Alan Gustafson (1).
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They Said It
"I feel good about our company. We've got young crew chiefs, young drivers, and they're super competitive. I think we'll be good for years to come." – Rick Hendrick
