For years, fans have waited for a showdown like this.
Certainly there have been tight races for the NASCAR Sprint Cup title in the past, but this one seems to have captured the imagination of both those fighting for the championship and those witnessing this piece of history.
Perhaps it’s because Jimmie Johnson has won four NASCAR Sprint Cup titles in a row, a streak that has divided fans on whether a potential fifth consecutive title would be an exciting new mark for future generations to attain or another setback for the sport longing for diversity among the drivers at the top.
Perhaps it’s because Denny Hamlin and crew chief, Mike Ford, have been so frank and, at times, downright brash in their approach and comments toward their challenge and new points lead.
Or perhaps it’s because Kevin Harvick is still in the mix and holds out hope for Richard Childress Racing to grab its first title since Dale Earnhardt in 1994.
Maybe fans are excited to see emotion overflowing on the track, as it did last weekend in the spat between Jeff Gordon and Jeff Burton, or with Kyle Busch’s penalty-drawing gesture. Maybe it’s just that, after two seasons when the season finale was a mere exclamation point on the championship, there’s going to be a lot of real racing for the title in the next two weeks.
Whatever the reason, the Chase for the Sprint Cup has captured attention once more.
Joe Gibbs Racing’s Hamlin is the new points leader with only two races to go — the first time since 2005 someone other than Johnson has been atop the standings at this point in the season. Johnson is 33 points back — close to his 2005 position when he was second to Tony Stewart with two to go. Stewart went on to win that title for JGR.
Johnson is second, followed closely by Harvick, who is 59 points behind Hamlin. It’s a tight crowd, one reminiscent of the 2004 run. That was the first year of the Chase and a season in which Kurt Busch led Gordon by 41 points (and Dale Earnhardt Jr. by 47 and Jimmie Johnson by 48) with two races to go. Busch went on to win that title by a mere eight points, the closest championship battle in the seven-year Chase.
Recently, though, it has been all Johnson.
Last year, he headed to Phoenix International Raceway with a 73-point edge over Mark Martin and 112 points over Jeff Gordon. They would finish in that order, with Johnson taking a 141-point edge to the championship banquet. The year before, Johnson led Carl Edwards by a whopping 106 points at this juncture in the season. He would build that lead to 141 points heading to Homestead-Miami Speedway and win the title by 69 points.
It was 2007 when Johnson was last challenged this closely, but even then he had the points lead at this stage — and a 30-point edge over teammate Gordon with two to go.
Now, though, things are different.
That adds more of an edge to Phoenix. It’s a track where Johnson excels — and one where his success rate is substantially higher than those surrounding him in the Chase. But even Johnson faces some uncertainty this weekend as he makes his first full-race debut with the crew that started last weekend’s race pitting the car of Gordon — and ended it working on Johnson’s. The seven over-the-wall crew members traded teams earlier this week, giving Johnson a new crew Sunday at Phoenix.
The flat one-mile oval is the kind of place where a bad pit stop can be extremely costly. It’s where any mishap can be, actually. Drivers can easily get strung out around the surface and find difficulty in working their way back up through the field.
On Sunday, everyone needs things to go well — especially the top three drivers.
Looking at their past rate of success, Johnson gets the nod for the weekend.
But how have the trio traditionally performed at Phoenix?
Denny Hamlin: In 10 Phoenix starts, Hamlin has six top-10 finishes, five of them top-fives. He has never won at the track. Hamlin has an average finish of 11.6 there, though, and has led 93 laps. His most recent finish of 30th is misleading as the driver was fresh off knee surgery at that race, so it’s more accurate, perhaps, to look at his previous stretch. In that run, he had four consecutive finishes of sixth or better, two of which were third-place finishes. In fact, Hamlin has finished third at the track four times in his Cup career. That wouldn’t be bad this weekend — unless the two in front of him are Johnson and Harvick.
Jimmie Johnson: Johnson has a stellar average finish of 4.9 at Phoenix. It’s a track where he has pretty much closed the door on Chase contenders in recent years – and is hoping to excel at once more. In 14 starts at the track, he has four wins. He has 12 top-10 finishes, nine of them top-fives, and has led 857 laps there. Johnson has finished no worse than fourth in his past eight races at the track and has wins in four of his past six races there. His career-worst finish at Phoenix? 15th. Doesn’t sound very encouraging for the competition.
Kevin Harvick: The RCR driver is the most difficult to get a read on for this weekend’s race. Harvick has been up and down at the track in recent races, but he has a pair of wins there. In 15 Phoenix starts, he has six top-10 finishes, three of them top-fives, and has led 316 laps. He has an average finish of 15.0. In recent races, though, he has been all over the place. Harvick was 13th earlier this year in Phoenix, 24th in this race a year ago and 30th before that. But his team has shown the ability to step up week to week in the Chase and outperform their recent results at tracks. There’s no reason for that not to continue this weekend.
In recent races, each of the three has run well and shown his ability to step up. Hamlin won at Martinsville Speedway, then Harvick finished second at Talladega Superspeedway and Hamlin won again last weekend.
If that level of competition continues this weekend, any of the three could be in charge heading into the season finale.
