As I continue to call this the Year of Surprises, I still believe we have a couple more chapters to be written of who is in and who is out of the 2011 NASCAR Chase for the Sprint Cup.
With all the ups and downs some of these teams on the bubble are going through, I actually won’t be surprised who is in it when the field is set following the checkered flag in Richmond in two weeks.
It’s simply too hard to predict right now.
Now, I know two races don’t seem like a lot, but trust me, there can be some wild changes in these final two races before the Chase. The handful of teams on the edge of making or missing the Chase are so hit and miss right now, I don’t have a clue who the final 12 will be.
I don’t think I have ever seen Tony Stewart as bewildered as he seemed this past weekend at Bristol Motor Speedway. Every driver goes through peaks and valleys in their career. Stewart is no different. But, simply put, Bristol was probably in the top 10 or maybe even the top five worst races I’ve ever seen from him.
It was so surprising, even more so knowing that this is crunch time. In my book, Stewart always rises to the occasion when it is crunch time. I can’t explain why, but it doesn’t seem to be happening this year. I don’t know if some of the internal changes they have made at Stewart-Haas Racing are affecting things. The real head-scratcher is the organization has one car running well, but Stewart can’t seem to get anything going.
Over in the Dale Earnhardt Jr. camp, well I just don’t know. I think it’s safe to say Dale Jr. will make the Chase, but right now I have my doubts whether he will be a contender. Over in the Richard Childress Racing camp, Kevin Harvick isn’t running well now, even though he will be in the Chase, and his teammate, Clint Bowyer, is holding on by his fingertips hoping to make it in.
I think Bowyer’s contract negotiations have been a distraction. It’s the wrong time to be talking about contracts; you should be focused solely on making the Chase.
He doesn’t have a win yet. He fell back a spot to 12th in the points. He has only three top fives and only nine top 10s in 24 races this season. I don’t think the 2011 Chase is in the cards for that team.
Over in Denny Hamlin's camp, I don’t know if they have a grasp yet of what is wrong. This is not the Denny Hamlin we have come to know these past couple years. The man won eight races last year and was in contention for the championship right up until the checkered flag of the last race of the year.
Even though he does have a win, which might be his saving grace for the Chase, Hamlin has racked up four only top fives and eight top 10’s in 24 races this year. As it sits right now going into Richmond, Hamlin has the second of two wild-card spots available. Now, if Paul Menard, David Ragan or Marcos Ambrose, who also have wins, happen to get a second victory in one of these next two races, plus be in the top 20 in points, then Hamlin will be in a world of hurt.
I honestly don’t have a clue what the missing link is there. I don’t know if it is issues and jealousy with teammate Kyle Busch. I don’t know if there are issues between him and his crew chief, Mike Ford. Did the distraction of Carl Edwards possibly taking over the No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing car next year affect Hamlin? I really don’t know. Actually, I don’t think anybody has a clue.
The fun part of these next two weeks is learning the unknown. Everyone can speculate all they want about what is going to happen, but no one really knows. Once the checkered flag falls in Richmond in two weeks, I bet there will be owners, drivers and fans going, “Wow, did that really happen?”
Atlanta this weekend and Richmond next weekend are just that crucial. It is almost like that 10th spot in the points and that final wild-card spot are like hot potatoes, because it seems like no one wants it. There has been opportunity after opportunity presented to some of these guys, and no one has taken advantage of it.
I was looking at the names again on the Chase bubble and was trying to see if anyone had an edge at Atlanta Motor Speedway. The answer is, I don’t think so. Again, these guys are so up and down right now. What I do see as a clear possibility is that Brad Keselowski can use these next two weekends to catch and pass Stewart in the points, potentially knocking Tony out of the Chase.
As you probably know, with the new points system and Chase format, if Keselowski makes the Chase in a wild-card spot, he does not receive the bonus points for his wins in the regular season. With all the momentum and confidence he and that team have right now, they are hungry to get into the top 10. Actually I will put it another way: They are on a mission to get into the top 10.
If he were to do that, well, it would have a domino effect in three areas. First, he would be starting near the top in Chase points once the points are reset and his bonus points are added. Second, it is going to knock someone out of the top 10 and possibly out of the Chase completely. We’re talking about a big-name driver and big-name team seeing their season be destroyed.
Lastly, it would open up a wild-card spot for someone else to make the Chase and the combinations there are endless. So Keselowski isn’t doing Stewart any favors right now. Keselowski is the hottest driver on the circuit, and, unfortunately, as you saw in Bristol, Stewart is nowhere close.
Keselowski is going to be dogging Stewart these next two races until his tongue is hanging out.
I sure hope everyone is ready, because these next two races are going to be dramatic. I can’t wait to see what happens.
