Handicapping Saturday night's Quaker State 400 at Kentucky Speedway is a little more complicated than normal.
For one thing, the 1.5-mile Kentucky track has only hosted five NASCAR Sprint Cup Series races to date.
More importantly, though, some key elements of this year's race are very different from the same race a year ago.
Kentucky's racing surface has been repaved and the corners were reconfigured with progressive banking.
The asphalt is said to be unusually abrasive for a repave, and that's by design.
NASCAR is bringing a lower-downforce aero package than was raced here last year.
Goodyear is bringing an new tire combination to the track.
Add it all up, and Kentucky has the potential to be a real crapshoot.
That said, Team Penske and Joe Gibbs Racing are the only teams that have won at Kentucky and they both figure prominently into this weeks' 5 who can win.
5. JIMMIE JOHNSON -- Although the six-time champion has never won at Kentucky, he's run well here in the past. In five starts here, Johnson has an average finish of 7.40 and has led 203 laps at the track.
4. KURT BUSCH -- The elder Busch brother has 14 top-10 finishes in 17 races this year. He led 41 laps in the first Cup race here in 2011 and should have a fast car again this weekend.
3. MATT KENSETH -- Talk about consistency: In five Kentucky races, the 2003 Cup champ has one victory, three top fives and an average finish of 4.60. He's never finished worse than seventh at Kentucky.
2. BRAD KESELOWSKI -- Last week's Daytona winner has won twice at Kentucky and Team Penske appears to be getting stronger as the season goes on. Keselowski has led 408 laps here, second only to Kyle Busch.
1. KYLE BUSCH -- You'd have to be a dunce not to pick Busch. He's won two of the five Kentucky races, finished second once, earned four top fives, has led a series-high 437 laps and has an average finish of 3.80. His worst finish here was 10th.
