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Predicting the CFP Committee's Second Ranking
Jan 12, 2015; Arlington, TX, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes head coach Urban Meyer celebrates with the college football championship trophy after beating the Oregon Ducks in the 2015 CFP National Championship Game at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
How will the CFP rankings shape up this week?
The College Football Playoff Committee wasted little time in shocking everyone last week voting Texas A&M No. 4 in the first CFP Ranking. Guess that was a mistake.
We can look at the Committee’s decision two ways. It is early and the first ranking means almost nothing or the Committee’s initial reaction to the relative strength of the SEC is disproportionate to reality. I think it is both.
Obviously, Mississippi’s State’s upset over Texas A&M will shift the Top Four in the CFP race when the second ranking is released on November 8 at 7:00 PM on ESPN’s College Football Playoff: Top 25 show.
Kirby Hocutt, CFP Chair, was widely criticized for his spin on the rankings. How will his explanations look this week?
Will the SEC continue to get the same respect considering Texas A&M’s loss and Auburn getting exposed against Vanderbilt? Will the drooling over Alabama’s superiority be tempered by its incredibly dull 10-0 win over a hapless LSU?
I thought Lane Kiffin was the best play caller in college football, at least that is what ESPN has been shoving down our throats for weeks. Remind me again on who Nick Saban called after the 2014 season was completed?
I think it is fair to say the SEC is not as deep this season and the Committee’s ranking should start reflecting the results of this season and not past performance.
Hocutt won’t address many of these issues again leaving us to debate who are the four best teams.
Each week, I will predict where the Committee places the Top 10 teams. Here we go:
#1 Alabama
Record:
9-0
Significant Wins:
At LSU. USC.
Remaining schedule:
Home against Mississippi State, Chattanooga and Auburn. SEC Championship Game.
Prediction:
Defeating the Tigers in Death Valley keeps the Crimson Tide at No. 1, but the gap between Alabama and the Top Six is not as wide ESPN experts suggest.
#2 Clemson
Record:
9-0
Significant Wins:
At Auburn and Florida State, home against Louisville.
At Wake Forest. Home against Pitt and South Carolina. ACC Championship Game
Prediction:
Clemson is rounding into championship form. The Tigers are the clear No. 2 team in the nation based on their schedule and road wins.
Michigan
Record:
9-0
Significant wins:
Colorado and Wisconsin
At Iowa and Ohio State. Home against Indiana.
Prediction:
The Wolverines schedule is questionable. Their ranking is not. This team is for real. They are ready for a rematch with the Buckeyes.
Washington
Record:
9-0
Significant Wins:
Stanford and Utah
At Washington State. Home against USC and Arizona State. PAC-12 Championship Game.
Prediction:
The path is clear for coach Chris Petersen to get his first shot at winning a national title. The Committee does not respect the Pac-12, but Petersen is a phenomenal coach carrying a huge chip on his shoulder. The Huskies pound USC next week leaving no doubt who is the best team in the Pac-12.
Next Six:
No. 5 Ohio State
Beating Nebraska 62-3 was the statement game the Committee and the rest of college football needed to see. The Buckeyes have played No. 8, No. 10, No. 12 and No. 14 and are 3-1 with two wins on the road. That’s the best resume out there, but the loss keeps them out of the Top Four.
No. 6 Louisville
The Cardinals will be six and might not move off this spot until the Nov 29. The Cardinals look impressive and they can hang with any team. They lost the game that mattered and are on the outside needing a lot of help to make into the CFP.
No. 7 Wisconsin
The Badgers move up a spot after beating Northwestern 21-7 in Evanston. They now control the Big Ten West Division and barring a major upset will get a rematch with the winner of the Ohio State and Michigan in the Big Ten Football Championship.
No. 8 Auburn
The Tigers move up a spot in the CFP rankings, though they hardly earned it with the lackluster performance against Vanderbilt. They play at Alabama on November 26 in what appears to be a de facto SEC Championship Game since the SEC East is dreadful.
No. 9 Penn State
I guess it took an upset over Ohio State to wake up a sleeping giant in Happy Valley. Saquon Barkley was a beast rushing for 167 yards and a touchdown in a 41-14 beat down over Iowa. The Nittany Lions probably won’t climb much higher, but coach James Franklin has them playing really well.
No. 10 Oklahoma
The Sooners are the best team in the Big 12 which is not saying much. Losses by Florida, LSU and Texas A&M catapult Oklahoma into the Top 10. They need complete chaos to make it back into the playoff. Won’t happen, but they are set up for another 10-win season. Not bad considering how the season started.
Analysis:
More from Scarlet and Game
Unlike last week, there will not be a surprise with the Top Four of the CFP rankings. Washington’s earned the spot.
Some underlying scenarios are possible. What happens if Auburn beats Alabama, Iowa pulls an upset over Michigan and Ohio State beats Michigan to send Penn State to the Big Ten Championship? Seems unlikely, but crazier things have happened.
Will Alabama or Ohio State get into the playoff without winning a conference title?
What if Ohio State wins the Big Ten, Clemson wins the ACC, Auburn wins the SEC and Washington loses the Pac-12. The Committee will likely have to choose between Louisville, Alabama and Michigan for the fourth spot? Perhaps it plugs in Oklahoma to the should it win the Big 12.
I still think it will be Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State and Washington in the CFP, but November has a funny way of destroying at least one team’s season. Who will it be?
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