Mailbag: How Baylor and OU have saved Big 12, Penn State and more

Published Sep. 10, 2014 10:10 a.m. ET

Stewart Mandel

Editor's note: Every Wednesday, Stewart Mandel writes a Mailbag. To submit questions for the next one, email Stewart.Mandel@fox.com.

Having thoroughly exhausted the Big Ten-nightmare storyline from last weekend, it’s time to move on … to picking apart another conference.

The Big Ten has been getting crushed and rightfully so, but why does the Big 12 keep skating by with no criticism? Its only “signature wins” this year have been close losses to Florida State and Alabama. Texas got destroyed again by BYU. Texas Tech has the two least impressive wins on the year. Kansas and Iowa State are still Kansas and Iowa State. I don't understand why the Big 12 is still perceived as one of the top conferences.

-- Toby Lane, Wichita Falls, Texas

-- Hayden, Lubbock, Texas

Whereas the Big Ten is feeling the flip side right now of having its best teams test themselves out-of-conference, the Big 12 has shielded itself in part by playing so few notable games so far. But that’s about to change. This weekend, Big 12 teams will play seven games against Power 5 opponents. As FOX Sports Southwest’s David Ubben notes, that’s more such games than the conference played all of last season.

Mind you, none of those matchups Saturday jump off the page like Oregon-Michigan State or Michigan-Notre Dame. However, with the exception of Oklahoma-Tennessee, in which the Sooners are heavy favorites, and Kanas-Duke, where the Blue Devils are expected to roll, it’s a whole lot of games that could go either way. Interestingly, Texas Tech is just a two-point favorite against one of the worst teams in the SEC, Arkansas. So the Big 12 could certainly catch much of the same flack as the Big Ten did last week if it has a rough weekend.

In the bigger picture, I do think the Big 12 has slipped quite a bit in recent years. Part of that can be attributed to the fall of those “godless hippies” in Austin, but let’s not forget that realignment took a massive toll on that conference. It lost one of its name-brand programs in Nebraska and two others, Missouri and Texas A&M, that have subsequently fielded Top 5 teams. The two newcomers, TCU and West Virginia, have largely been disappointments. It is quite literally not the same Big 12 as it was in its heyday. It is a 10-team league in an era of 14-team conferences, so if even a few teams suffer down periods at the same time it gives the appearance that the league has little depth.

Ultimately, though, people usually judge conferences disproportionately by the teams at the top. In that department, the Big 12 has two legitimate playoff contenders, whereas the Big Ten after last weekend may not have any. As long as the Sooners and Bears remain Top 10-caliber teams, you’re probably not going to hear much criticism of the conference. And given their relatively light early schedules, they should remain so for many more weeks.

Hi Stewart, excellent article about Penn State. I'm sure that by this point you've already gotten a million indignant emails about the lifting of Penn State's sanctions. How many emails have you gotten that are indignant about the fact that Spanier et al. are still walking around free? And what does that say about the priorities of college football fans?

-- Chris G., Pittsburgh

Actually most readers who reached out were either in agreement or just disgruntled with the NCAA in general. I certainly saw plenty of the predictable HOW DARE YOU responses on Twitter, but, as much as I love Twitter for news and information, I’ve learned at this point it’s not a bastion for intellectual discourse. And you make an excellent point that I hadn’t even considered.

While Spanier, Tim Curley and Gary Schultz were long ago indicted and publicly shamed, technically, Penn State’s caught-in-the-crossfire football players served a punishment before the school’s actual alleged wrongdoers have even gone to trial. This may be the first time in NCAA history it responded to something too quickly.

Now that the NCAA has lifted Penn State's sanctions, how many scholarships can James Franklin hand out for the 2015 class, and what do you think are the chances they can win the East? The offensive line is still a major concern but Ohio State and Michigan State do have to come to Happy Valley.

-- Richard Caceres, Long Valley, New Jersey

Penn State can offer the full 25 scholarships next year. It will be interesting to see how Franklin and his staff manage the rest of the recruiting cycle. They already have 19 commitments in what Scout.com ranks as the No. 7 class nationally. Suddenly they have the ability to take more guys, but they’re not going to hand those out to just anyone, either. They could try to load up now, or they could hold open a few spots for potential 2016 early enrollees to really go big in that class.

Either way, obviously, the restoration to full numbers is a game-changer in their recruiting efforts. For all the adulation of Joe Paterno pre-scandal, Penn State had not been a true national recruiting power since the late ‘90s. Under Franklin I fully expect them to dominate their region while at the same time extending the program’s reach into the South.

In the short term, though, I don’t think the Nittany Lions are capable of winning the East this year. They just don’t have enough upper-echelon players or quality depth. One need only look at division mates Ohio State and Michigan to see the perils of playing with a limited offensive line. There’s a reason Franklin keeps stressing “Rutgers, Rutgers” rather than basking in Monday’s news. Before they can talk bowls or division titles they must first win a toss-up game this week in New Jersey.

But to be clear, we’ll be talking about Penn State as a contender again a lot sooner than originally anticipated, possibly by next year. Franklin’s staff is exceptional. Recruiting’s only going to get better. As bad as it looks today, that Big Ten East could truly become loaded, provided Michigan gets its act together sometime this decade.

Speaking of which …

Stewart, Now that we have a bigger sample size, is it possible that the problems at Michigan during the Rich Rod era were unfairly set on Rich Rod's shoulders? It now seems like it's a "Michigan" problem since they continue to struggle under Brady Hoke and let's face it, Lloyd Carr wasn't exactly setting the world on fire the last few years of his career, either.

-- Andy, Hollywood, Alabama

I wouldn’t necessarily give Rich Rod a free pass – those defenses toward the end of his Michigan tenure were pretty darn bad -- but at the same time, the guy has proven both before and after that failed stint that he knows how to coach. No question, his tenure was doomed from the start. From a fractured fan base to alienated program alums and an athletic department in flux, the support just wasn’t there. But more so, he was the definition of a “bad fit.”

And that’s what makes Hoke’s struggles so vexing. Whereas you could argue Rodriguez was set up to fail, Hoke has had every possible factor going for him. He’s the consummate Michigan Man. He had carte blanche to reinvent the program in his vision, including quietly building up one of the largest support staffs outside the SEC. The recruiting rankings say he’s got no shortage of necessary talent.

And yet it appears the Wolverines are in worse shape in Year 4 of the Hoke era than they were in Rodriguez’s final year. At least his predecessor’s offense was functional. Hoke has had four years to hand-pick the quarterback, running backs and offensive linemen to run his preferred smash-mouth attack, only to get shut out in South Bend last week. It’s truly baffling. But no, I don’t think there’s a “Michigan” problem, unless you believe having one of the most recognizable brands in the sport is somehow an impediment. Remember, Alabama endured 15 years of irrelevance prior to Nick Saban’s arrival. No marquee program is immune from an extended downturn.

Stewart, do you see Pat Haden resigning from the playoff committee? I get that we knew most committee members have a bias, but his actions show that he can't control that bias as a normal person would.

-- Bret, Tallahassee, Florida

Sorry, but I’m not in the Haden-Must-Go crowd. He apologized, the Pac-12 fined him and we move on. My only concern is he’ll get a text from Sarkisian during the selection meeting and bolt out of the room.

But it has certainly been amusing the past few days to learn of all the nefarious threats his uncontrollable bias apparently poses.

Hi Stewart, even as a lifelong BYU fan I'll grant that the Playoff is not going to happen for the Cougars. But what about getting into a New Year’s Eve or New Year’s Day bowl? Those are determined strictly by conference tie-ins plus the committee's rankings, correct? How high do they need to get, and do you think they have a chance of getting there, given their lack of any remaining high-profile games?

-- Greg, San Francisco

Indeed, BYU, like every other team in America, can qualify for an at-large spot in the Fiesta, Peach or Cotton bowls, should it finish high enough in the selection committee’s rankings. There’s no written-in-stone cutoff point, because the number of open spots will depend on where the Power 5 champs are ranked and which get into the playoff. Note, though, that this is the most favorable year in the three-year rotation for BYU since all three of those games are open. For example, in 2016, when the Fiesta and Peach are hosting semifinals, there will only be one open spot in the whole system due to the other bowls’ conference contracts. This year, based on the modeling I did for my book, there will likely be at least three openings, and if so, reaching the Top 9 or 10 should do it.

It’s hard to say what exactly BYU would need to do to finish that high without yet knowing what its strength of schedule will look like. Is Texas, whom the Cougars just demolished, looking at 8-4 or 4-8? What about Virginia, who they host in two weeks? Or UCF? Going undefeated would be the only sure ticket. Looking at that schedule today, I’m not sure 11-1 would be enough. But if a couple of teams we’re not currently expecting to field Top 25-caliber teams wind up doing so, and if BYU beats those teams and suffers its defeat to a respectable foe, then maybe its resume looks a lot differently in December.

Your position on Pat Haden's spot on the College Football Playoff Selection Committee appears to be that his actions last Saturday do not reflect on his ability to select teams for the new playoffs. However, the playoff organization itself says that in selecting the committee members, "The top-priority criterion was integrity." It seems pretty clear that Haden's actions showed a lack of integrity. If the playoff organization is to have any integrity itself then it needs to replace him.

-- Steve, location unknown

I’m not comfortable condemning a man’s entire integrity based on one sideline incident. Maybe the committee could appoint an “integrity monitor” like the NCAA gave Penn State. He can follow Haden around at the rest of USC’s games and report back if he ever barks at an usher or cuts in line for the urinals.

Before the season started, I read that Oregon was working on getting bigger and more physical, especially on defense. The game against Michigan State seemed to show that their plan was paying dividends. But when discussing last week’s game, you wrote, “I still have concerns about the Ducks’ defense.” Is that concern based on the history of the Ducks getting out-muscled by the likes of Stanford and LSU or on what you saw on Saturday?

-- Doug, St. Louis

Well first of all, isn’t every team in the country “working to get bigger and more physical” in the preseason? That’s right up there with “working harder than ever” in the weight room and “just trying to get better every single day” in the preseason coach-speak manual.

The only reason I said that is because of Oregon’s first-half performance, when Michigan State quarterback Connor Cook was able to do just about anything he wanted. At halftime the Spartans were averaging 6.6 yards per play – not good. All credit to Oregon, though, for making the adjustments and holding Michigan State to a lone field goal the rest of the way. So all in all, I was hardly discouraged by the Ducks’ defense, I’m just not ready to put them in in the same breath as two elite Pac-12 units we saw earlier in the day, USC’s and Stanford’s.

And of course, neither of those teams has Marcus Mariota putting up 46 on last season’s best defense in the country.

Hi, Stewart. Yes, Nebraska needed a Heisman-moment catch-and-run by Ameer Abdullah to beat McNeese State, but how depressed should I be? There seem to be plenty of good FCS teams capable of giving their FBS peers a competitive game. Is it time to chalk up another 9-4 season, or are we shortchanging some of these FCS teams?

-- Dave, Hangzhou, China

I wouldn’t read too much into one close call. Plenty of teams have gone on to have great seasons after similar scares. McNeese State might not be Michigan State but it’s generally considered a Top 5 to 10 FCS team. Last year it beat USF, then still a BCS-conference program, 53-21. Meanwhile, the Huskers were playing without their best defensive player (Randy Gregory) and played the second half without their top receiver (Kenny Bell). I’m not excusing Nebraska’s performance, just saying it’s not as inexplicable as it looks on the surface.

I’m curious, though, to see how the Huskers respond this week when they make the trek out to Fresno State. Early returns indicate the post-Derek Çarr Bulldogs are not very good, but it’s never easy traveling multiple time zones. If Nebraska turns in another ugly performance, then you might start worrying about something even worse than 9-4. From where I sit, though, given Wisconsin’s uncertainty at quarterback and Iowa’s thus-far uninspiring showings, the Huskers remain my favorite to reach Indianapolis from that side of the conference.

You have to understand, at USC, football is not a sport, it's a mental illness, their perceived reason for existing as an institution. Haden should absolutely be removed from the committee. If he is going to do this during a game, what is he going to do in the selection process?

Let us just take this moment to remind ourselves that Haden has been tasked with evaluating football teams, not manning the nuclear launch codes.

Stewart Mandel is a senior college sports columnist for FOXSports.com. He covered college football and basketball for 15 years at Sports Illustrated. His new book, “The Thinking Fan’s Guide to the College Football Playoff,” is now available on Amazon. You can follow him on Twitter @slmandel. Send emails and Mailbag questions to Stewart.Mandel@fox.com.