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A position-by-position breakdown of the BCS Championship game:
QUARTERBACKS
Alabama: Greg McElroy isn’t going to be a superstar and he’s not going to do anything in the NFL, but he’s a tremendous winner who was a phenomenal high school player at Southlake Carroll High in Texas where he threw for 56 touchdowns in one year after taking over for future Missouri Tiger, Chase Daniel. It was between Florida and Alabama for his decision, and some guy named Tebow chose to be a Gator, making the decision easy. After waiting his turn for a few years, McElroy has become a fantastic game-manager, in a good way, who overcame a midseason lull to be ultra-efficient, accurate, and against Auburn, clutch. He has only thrown four interceptions on the year with two coming against South Carolina, but he might have to take some chances down the field against the swarming Texas secondary and he can’t be afraid to get picked off a time or two. While he netted 110 yards and a touchdown rushing, he’s not a runner.
Texas: Colt McCoy is the winningest quarterback in D-I history, but his biggest moment came in one of his worst games, throwing three interceptions and just 184 yards in the Big 12 Championship victory over Nebraska. It’s not an overstatement to say that the game comes down to him. If he’s off and he’s not reading the speeding Bama defense well, this could be an ugly blowout, but if he’s on early, Texas has a shot. The entire offense will be put on his shoulders, so expect the Texas A&M game McCoy who ran for 175 yards and threw for 304 and less of the conservative pocket passer. This is his final game, and he’s going to turn it loose.
ADVANTAGE: Texas. Alabama can win if McElroy is just OK, but Texas doesn’t have a prayer if McCoy doesn’t come up with one of his best games of the season. How is McCoy in bowl games? He’s 3-0, completing 88-of-129 passes (68%) for 896 yards with five touchdowns, one interception, and with 72 rushing yards and two scores.
RUNNING BACKS
Alabama: How good is the Alabama backfield? The Heisman winner probably isn’t the most talented back. Mark Ingram is a thumper with speed and nice hands, and if possible, he’ll be a workhorse for the 'Bama offense, who’ll keep running until Texas proves it can stop him. Ingram finished 11th in the nation in rushing yards per game and only (with only being a relative term for a Heisman winner) ran for 15 scores, but he was consistent, great in the big games, and he always produced when healthy. But Trent Richardson might be better. The super-recruit has it all with power, more speed than Ingram, and the potential to eventually win one of those neat bronze statue things someday. Adding some nice pop to the mix is Roy Upchurch, a pounding back who could get five carries just to mix things up.
Texas: It’s not that the Texas running backs are bad, but they play second-fiddle to McCoy and the short passing game. It’s a two-headed monster with Tre Newton bringing the speed and quickness, and Cody Johnson the thumper who’s automatic around the goal line with 24 career rushing scores. Newton was out of the game plan for much of the season, but he came on to be the main man over the final three games to finish with a team-leading 513 yards and six scores. Vondrell McGee ran for 104 yards in the blowout or UTEP but that’s been it.
ADVANTAGE: Alabama … by a ton. However, Texas, who lives on the short to mid-range pass, averaged 4.1 yards per carry with 28 rushing touchdowns.
RECEIVERS
Alabama: If every player currently playing college football was in the NFL Draft, Julio Jones might be a top 15 pick. He’s the prototype with size, speed, a fantastic attitude, and the drive to be a special player, and while he’s the team’s unquestioned No. 1 target and the leading receiver, he’s grossly underutilized because of the tremendous 'Bama running game. In two years he has 100 catches for 1,497 yards and eight touchdowns, but he might have put up those types of numbers in about eight games at a place like Texas Tech. He really is that good. Texas has to keep its full attention on him at all times, meaning the small but speedy Marquis Maze should have all the underneath routes he wants. Unofficially the team’s fastest player, he’s a threat to do big things every time he touches the ball, but he hasn’t scored a touchdown since September and only has 30 catches on the year. Tight end Colin Peek will be better in the NFL than he is in college. A great blocker and a dependable target, he caught a touchdown pass in each of the last two games.
Texas: There was a time this year when Jordan Shipley was a real, live Heisman candidate. The sixth-year senior was the No. 1 target by far, catching 106 passes (the No. 2 receiver, James Kirkendoll, caught 48) for 1,363 yards and 11 touchdowns and also served as a devastating punt returner. However, as good as the slippery-smooth target has been throughout his career, making 238 career catches, he has been mediocre in the bowls catching 17 passes in the three games for a mere 133 yards (averaging 7.8 yards per catch) with no scores. 6-3, 220-pound Malcolm Williams was a Texas state champion-level sprinter in high school, and he has all the upside to grow into an NFL target if he can be a consistent playmaker. So-so throughout the year, he blew up late with 15 catches for 235 yards and a score in the final two regular season games. Kirkendoll caught two touchdown passes in each of the last two regular season games and will be used as a bit of a deep threat in three-wide sets.
ADVANTAGE: Texas, but only because the Longhorn receivers get to do more in the offense. Williams has NFL skills but hasn’t shown them off enough, while Shipley is a good college player, but he’s not Jones, and there isn’t a Texas speedster quite as fast as Maze.
OFFENSIVE LINE
Alabama: No, the Alabama offensive line wasn’t better without Andre Smith, but it was tremendous throughout the season at paving the way for the devastating running game. The outstanding backs helped to make the line look great at times, but this is a strong front five that will have to play at another level to dent the UT defensive front. While it’s not going to be easy to find running room, this is also a mediocre pass protection unit that hasn’t been exposed because 1) Bama doesn’t pass all that much and 2) no one has really sold out to get to McElroy. With that said, only allowing 15 sacks on the year despite facing Ole Miss, Virginia Tech, South Carolina, LSU, and Florida is still impressive. Mike Johnson might be the best guard in America, but the spotlight will be on right tackle Drew Davis against the tremendous Longhorn ends. James Carpenter can hold his own at left tackle, and Davis isn’t bad, but he’ll get to go against Sergio Kindle and has to at least break even.
Texas: This is a good, veteran line that’s at its best when it’s able to line up and pound away and use its strength, but when it has to protect against good pass rushes, there are problems. Don’t look too much into Ndamukong Suh’s performance in the Big 12 Championship; he’s a different player who took his game to another level. Adam Ulatoski is the star at left tackle and Chris Hall, despite the domination by Suh, is one of the nation’s better centers. This isn’t going to be a difference-making line and it’s not going to do enough against the strong Bama offensive front to win the game. The goal is to not be awful and not be a liability like it was against Nebraska.
ADVANTAGE: Alabama. The Tide can win because of its offensive line. The Longhorns can lose because of their line.
DEFENSIVE LINE
Alabama: The talent in the Bama defensive back eight overshadows the production from the front three. At 6-5, 354 pounds, Terrence Cody isn’t Ndamukong Suh, he isn’t a pass rusher and he doesn’t make a ton of stops, but he takes on two and three blockers at a time and is an anchor in the truest sense of the term. Lorenzo Washington and Brandon Deaderick function as extra tackles, Washington is 290 yards and Deaderick is 306, holding up against the run while everyone else gets to produce. The stats might not be there, but forget about running against this group.
Texas: If this isn’t the best defensive line in America, it’s No. 2. Junior Sam Acho has emerged as a difference-making pass rusher on one side, while the Longhorns have big, beefy blocks of granite on the inside with Kheeston Randall, Ben Alexander, Lamarr Houston and Tyrell Higgins forming a tough tackle rotation that doesn’t let anything pass. And then there’s Sergio Kindle, who was expected to be the next Brian Orakpo, didn’t do enough to get to the quarterback and was seen as a disappointment because he only had 3.5 sacks, but was still among the nation’s best ends because he did everything else well. Kindle might not come up with any sacks against the Tide, but he’ll force a few mistakes by breathing down hard on McElroy.
ADVANTAGE: Texas. The Longhorn ends are a little splashy, but the two lines are used to hold firm to let the other stars shine. No one has had any luck at running on either line with the talent up front being why UT is No. 1 in the nation against the run and Bama is No. 2. In this game, though, with the Tide needing to run, the Texas front four could make the difference.
LINEBACKERS
Alabama: Let’s get this out of the way: Rolando McClain is overrated. He was on TV every week, he’s the unquestioned leader of one of the nation’s best defenses, and he’s going to make some NFL team very, very happy, but he wasn’t the best linebacker in America this season and he won all the big awards based on reputation as much as anything else. There are several other linebackers in America who’d have been just as good behind Cody and the Tide defensive front. With that said, he’s going to have a monster game against a team that he should dominate against. Terrific at dropping into coverage, he should easily hit the double-digit mark in tackles against the short Texas passing game. If you don’t see a lot of yards after the catch coming from the UT receivers, McClain will probably be the reason why. He’ll also be used to make sure that McCoy doesn’t break off big runs going up the middle. Eryk Anders is a quick playmaker in Bama’s Jack position, Cory Reamer is a strong run defender with great range on the strongside, and Nico Johnson is a star in the making on the weakside, but they’re all just very, very good players working around one superstar in the middle.
Texas: The sum of the Texas linebackers are better than the parts. Roddrick Muckelroy is a sure tackler in the middle, earning Second Team All-Big 12 honors following a solid 79 tackle season and Emmanuel Acho is a rising star on the strongside, but this is a group that’s been able to flourish on sheer athleticism and hasn’t had to deal with any true power running games. The Longhorn linebackers are at their best when they get to run to the ball and chase down quick ball-carriers. It’ll be interesting to see how they hold up if Ingram and company can get to the second level.
ADVANTAGE: Alabama, but not by as much as you might think. Texas doesn’t have a McClain, but it’s a rock-solid group. Both corps can move and both will make plays in the backfield while cleaning everything up that their respective lines don’t stuff.
SECONDARY
Alabama: The Crimson Tide defensive backs are mostly used in man coverage and can get away with taking chances because of their tremendous talent and athleticism, and because no one in the SEC could throw the ball outside of Arkansas. The Hogs bomb away, but their receivers weren’t exactly Randy Moss and Andre Johnson, and LSU, which does have a few solid NFL receiving prospects, ended up getting shut down partly because Jarrett Lee came into the game. Javier Arenas might be a better return man than he is a corner, and he’s an all-star in both spots with peerless quickness and open-field tackling ability (especially for his size). Strong safety Mark Barron has turned into a special playmaker, taking over for Rashad Johnson in the secondary, finishing with 70 tackles and seven interceptions. Justin Woodall has nice coverage skills, but he plays more like another linebacker than a pure safety, and Kareem Jackson is a solid all-around corner who shines when teams try to stay away from Arenas.
Texas: This is a young group with four sophomores starting, but it’s among the most talented defensive backfields Mack Brown has ever had. At least it’s close. Earl Thomas is one of college football’s best all-around defensive backs with safety skills against the run and the quickness to erase anyone’s No. 1 receiver as a corner. The 5-10, 197-pound safety makes big plays happen all over the field and is the one the rest of the secondary works around. Thomas is the team’s best player in the secondary, but Curtis Brown is the best corner. He has next-level speed and athleticism with the quickness to match up with Marquis Maze if needed and the toughness to not get shoved around by Julio Jones.
ADVANTAGE: Dead even. Barron and Arenas are excellent, but the Longhorn defensive backs have more skills and are better at taking the ball away. Texas came up with a whopping 24 interceptions this season, while Alabama came up with 20, but the Tide is better against short-to-midrange passers and allowed just 48% of passes to be completed.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Alabama: Leigh Tiffin would’ve been a lock for the Lou Groza Award any other year, but UCLA’s Kai Forbath turned out to be everything for the Bruin offense. Tiffin nailed 29-of-33 field goals, and while he didn’t have to come up with the truly clutch kick, he’s as reliable as they come. Javier Arenas is among the nation’s most dangerous all-around kick and punt returners averaging 16.34 yards per punt return and 29 yards per kickoff try. Punter P.J. Fitzgerald is solid averaging a nice 42.1 yards per punt.
Texas: All Jordan Shipley has done is return more kicks and punts for touchdowns than anyone in Texas football history, while D.J. Monroe is a special kickoff returner averaging 35.79 yards per try, good for second in the nation. Hunter Lawrence connected on 22-of-25 field goal attempts, and after nailing the 46-yard bomb in the clutch against Nebraska to set the Longhorns to Pasadena, he’ll never have to buy another meal in Austin. Justin Tucker isn’t bad, but his average stinks because he’s more of a directional kicker and didn’t get many chances. He only punted 39 times.
ADVANTAGE: Even. Neither team is a rock at covering punts, but Texas is worse. However, Alabama is miserable in kickoff coverage (Texas is fine) and that could turn out to be the difference. Each team has returners who can take a kick the distance, each team has fantastic field goal kickers, and neither team has a major advantage over the other. The mediocre Texas punting might be offset by the Bama kick coverage team.
COACHING
Alabama: Nick Saban is among the giants in the game with one national title under his belt and at least one more on the way before he’s done at Alabama, even if Texas wins this game. While he’s known for being a big game head coach, that hasn’t necessarily been the case when his teams are the favorites. In the biggest of the big games, Saban, with the higher ranked team and as the favorite, won the 2007 Independence Bowl over Colorado and destroyed Georgia in the 2003 SEC Championship. But the track record hasn’t been strong when he’s coaching the team that’s supposed to get the win. Offensive coordinator Jim McElwain isn’t necessarily a risk-taker, but he’s creative with what he’s able to do to mix things up. Kirby Smart might be the defensive coordinator, but this is Saban’s D.
Texas: Mack Brown has always been a special recruiter and has been a far better coach than he gets credit for, but he’s not necessarily considered a top Xs and Os mind. Whatever. He wins, he wins a lot, and most of being a college head coach is about bringing in the top players and creating an atmosphere of greatness. Brown has done that. One thing Brown has been able to do as well as anyone is hire tremendous assistants, and with Will Muschamp his defensive coordinator, Major Applewhite a top assistant and running backs coach, and Greg Davis as offensive coordinator, Brown has some serious talent around him. Don’t think that Brown can’t coach or match wits with Saban, though. You don’t get within a heartbeat of two national titles without knowing how to teach a little bit.
ADVANTAGE: Even. The two staffs are as good as any in the game. There are several future head coaches among the assistants, while Brown and Saban are in their prime with each on the cusp of true greatness. If anything, though, the Texas staff, primarily Muschamp, knows Saban and the Alabama staff, having worked with many of them at LSU. Don’t read too much into that.
