George Mason coach Jim Larranaga knows about shocking the NCAA tournament.
Five years ago, he and his 11th-seeded Patriots did just that by becoming only the second double-digit seed to ever make the Final Four, a feat previously accomplished by No. 11 LSU in 1986.
But with 10th-seeded Florida State (23-10), No. 11 Marquette (22-14), No. 11 Virginia Commonwealth (26-11) and No. 12 Richmond (29-7) still alive in this year’s NCAA tournament entering the Sweet 16 that starts Thursday, Larranaga likes the chances of the Final Four being crashed by another double-digit seed.
“The field is really wide open,” Larranga said. “These teams have won at least two and sometimes three games. At this stage in the season, more than anything, those teams are going to be believing in themselves and feeling very, very confident. A lot of it will depend on matchups and who’s healthy.”
Here’s a look at the matchups for the double-digit-seeded teams remaining in the NCAA tournament and their chances of dancing into the Final Four in Houston:
No. 10 Florida State Seminoles
• Next game: No. 11 seed Virginia Commonwealth (26-11) on Friday in the Southwest Regional semifinals in San Antonio.
• How they got here: Beat No. 7 seed Texas A&M 57-50 and No. 2 seed Notre Dame 71-57.
• The skinny: After playing without several key players, including star forward Chris Singleton, their leading scorer and rebounder, for stretches this season because of injuries, the Seminoles finally have a full roster. It’s as deep as any team still left in the tournament, and the Seminoles’ size poses a major matchup problem for opponents, especially defensively. They lead the nation in defensive field goal percentage and held Texas A&M and Notre Dame to a combined 31 percent shooting. If their stingy defense can carry them past Virginia Commonwealth, a top 3-point-shooting team, their size and athleticism would match up well in potential game against top-seeded Kansas for a trip to the Final Four.
• Final Four chances: 30 percent.
No. 11 Marquette Golden Eagles
• Next game: No. 2 seed North Carolina (28-7) on Friday in the East Regional semifinals in Newark, N.J.
• How they got here: Beat No. 6 seed Xavier 66-55 and No. 3 seed Syracuse 66-62.
• The skinny: The last of the 11 Big East teams to make the NCAA tournament, the Golden Eagles are one of two teams from the conference still remaining. They play tough defense and pride themselves on their lack of star power. But they face a daunting challenge in North Carolina, which will look to push the pace offensively against them. They also figure to have a tough time scoring and rebounding against the bigger Tar Heels. Even if the Golden Eagles were to somehow win, they would then face a possible matchup against top-seeded Ohio State with a Final Four invite at stake — which doesn’t bode well for them, either. They’ve had a nice run but don’t figure to last much longer, just like their passionate coach Buzz Williams, who’s likely to leave for another job after the season.
• Final Four chances: 15 percent.
No. 11 Virginia Commonwealth Rams
• Next game: No. 10 seed Florida State (23-10) on Friday in the Southwest Regional semifinals in San Antonio.
• How they got here: Beat No. 11 seed USC 59-46 in a First Four game, No. 6 seed Georgetown 74-56 and No. 3 seed Purdue 94-76.
• The skinny: Criticized by many for their inclusion as an at-large selection, the Rams are arguably the NCAA tournament’s hottest team with three double-digit victories. They also have perhaps college basketball’s hottest coach, 33-year-old Shaka Smart, who is in his second year. The Rams have been carried by their 3-point shooting (41.4 percent in this tourney) and Smart’s confusing array of different defenses. To beat Florida State, they’ll need to continue their 3-point shooting success, which will be tough against the Seminoles’ top-ranked defense. The Rams might be able to do it once, but to then follow up against a potential opponent like top-seeded Kansas for a berth in the Final Four isn’t likely.
• Final Four chances: 10 percent.
No. 12 Richmond Spiders
• Next game: No. 1 seed Kansas (34-2) on Friday in the Southwest Regionals semifinals in San Antonio.
• How they got here: Beat No. 5 seed Vanderbilt 69-66 and No. 13 seed Morehead State 65-48.
• The skinny: The Spiders have once again spun an impressive web in the NCAA tournament. By beating Vanderbilt in the second round, they became the only school to win games as a No. 12, 13, 14 and 15 seed. They have a potential NBA draft pick, forward Justin Harper, and some size, but to upset top-seeded Kansas, they must hope the Jayhawks play down to them. That’s not impossible, especially if the Spiders can somehow keep it close entering the game’s final minutes. The Jayhawks’ late-game struggles cost them under coach Bill Self in previous NCAA tournament losses to other mid-majors like Northern Iowa last year and Bucknell in 2005. If the Spiders pulled the upset, they just could make the Final Four with a potential matchup with Virginia Commonwealth looming in the regional final.
• Final Four chances: 5 percent.
