Evaluating NBA Draft decisions
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Now that the page has been turned on the 2008-09 season, things are
a little slow on the college basketball front.
And though my life feels somewhat empty without another NCAA
tournament game to be watching, the NBA Playoffs are at least here
to help me maintain my basketball fix for another two months.
After all, in those 60 days, you can tell just by watching on
TV that compared to the regular season, the game's level of
intensity is taken up a notch.
That's because every game means a little bit more than the
last. It's that time of the season when the stars shine and new
ones are born.
So as we watch this year's NBA postseason action unfold,
there's also a draft class being molded into place for June 25
— when Commissioner David Stern takes the podium at Madison
Square Garden and reads off the league's next 60 rookies.
While underclassmen testing the waters will have until June
15 to pull out of the NBA Draft, many early entries have already
made up their minds and turned pro by signing with agents.
Here's a look at those prospects and whether they're making
the right move with their future.
DeJuan Blair, F, Pittsburgh: Even after a sensational
sophomore season that included an appearance in the Elite Eight,
Blair could afford to play one more year in college to help hone
his jumper. But with Levance Fields and Sam Young having played
their senior seasons, it's understandable why he's coming out now.
Draft decision: Good.
Chase Budinger, F, Arizona: Budinger was expected by many
to declare for the draft a lot sooner than waiting until after his
junior season, but with a new era beginning under Sean Miller,
staying in Tucson would have meant playing for a fourth different
coach in four years. And with enough size at 6-foot-7 and a deadly
perimeter game, he won't have a problem finding his way onto a NBA
roster.
Draft decision: Good.
Earl Clark, G/F, Louisville: Clark has the length and
athleticism to play at the next level, but he'll need to add some
more muscle and improve his defense significantly in order to stay
in front of opposing small forwards. His offensive game remains his
strong suit after averaging 14.2 points per game at Louisville, and
with sidekick Terrence Williams gone, the chances of a Final Four
appearance look bleak for the Cardinals next year.
Draft decision: Good.
Brandon Costner, F, N.C. State: The Wolfpack's leading
scorer last year at 13.3 points per game, Costner will have a tough
time playing the power forward slot in the NBA at only 6-foot-8.
The other major question mark for the junior out of Montclair,
N.J., is whether he'll have the athleticism to guard opposing small
forwards, which includes the likes of LeBron James, Lamar Odom and
Paul Pierce.
Draft decision: Bad.
Stephen Curry, G, Davidson: Despite not getting Davidson
back to the NCAA tournament, the sharp-shooting son of ex-NBA
player Dell Curry, who stole the show during March Madness two
years ago, did lead the nation in scoring at 28.6 points per game
this past season. With the range he has on his jump shot, Curry
— projected to go anywhere from 7th to 20th in the first
round — shouldn't have any trouble adjusting to the NBA
3-point line next season.
Draft Decision: Good.
DeMar DeRozan, F, USC: The Compton native had plenty of
hype surrounding him prior to his arrival at USC, but unlike
one-and-done phenom O.J. Mayo, DeRozan did little over the course
of the season to prove he was one of the best players in the
Pac-10, let alone in the nation. The 6-foot-7 freshman, in fact,
was only third on the team in scoring at 13.9 points per game,
sitting behind Dwight Lewis and Taj Gibson.
Draft Decision: Bad.
Eric Devendorf, G, Syracuse: After playing only 10 games
during the 2007-08 season due to a torn ACL, Devendorf came back
and finished second on the team in scoring this year at 15.7 points
per game while shooting 39 percent from three. Despite the solid
offensive numbers in 2008-09, it's hard to see the Bay City, Mich.,
native being taken in the first round with his lack of athleticism
and his defensive and rebounding skills still needing a lot of
work.
Draft Decision: Bad.
Wayne Ellington, G, North Carolina: Before the Final Four,
many might have questioned this move by Ellington. But with the
junior wingman being named the Final Four's Most Outstanding Player
and helping the Tar Heels win their fifth national championship,
Ellington proved over the month of March — complements of a
19.2 NCAA tournament scoring average — that he can rise to
the occasion when called upon.
Draft Decision: Good.
Jonny Flynn, G, Syracuse: He may be undersized at only
6-foot, but Flynn showed during the Big East tournament and NCAA
tournament that he was clearly the Orange's most talented player
this season. If the Niagara, N.Y., native can avoid more injuries
and can show that he's improved the range on his jump shot, he
should be one of the top three point guards taken in the draft.
Draft Decision: Good.
Blake Griffin, F, Oklahoma: The National Player of the
Year and a near deadlock to be the first pick in the draft, Griffin
absolutely dominated the 2008-09 college basketball season from
November all the way to March. In leading the Sooners to the Elite
Eight for the first time since 2003, the 6-foot-10 sophomore shot
over 65 percent from the field and averaged a double-double at 22.7
points and 14.4 rebounds per game.
Draft Decision: Good.
Daniel Hackett, G, USC: Hackett may have been one of the
best on-ball defenders in the Pac-10, but it's hard to see him
going anywhere in the first round. While the 6-foot-5 junior, who
finished fourth in scoring (12.3 points per game) for the Trojans,
has an adequate jump shot and solid passing skills, a spectacular
senior year would have made Hackett a much more attractive
acquisition in potentially another weak draft class next year.
Draft Decision: Bad.
James Harden, G, Arizona State: The Pac-10 Player of the
Year, Harden has a knack for scoring, whether it's inside or from
the perimeter, and that should unquestionably make him a lottery
pick. The All-American out of Los Angeles led the Sun Devils with
20.1 points per game this season, but he'll have to hope that a
strong camp performance also overshadows his two final collegiate
games, in which he tallied only nine and 10 points against the
likes of Temple and Syracuse.
Draft Decision: Good.
Paul Harris, F, Syracuse: When Harris committed to
Syracuse more than two years ago, there was a buzz in upstate New
York that Jim Boeheim was getting a player that could get him back
to the Final Four after Carmelo Anthony had in 2003. But despite
averaging 12 points and eight rebounds this season, Harris never
truly lived up to his billing as a potential All-American, and
there's no doubt a final year in college would have helped his
draft stock come next June.
Draft Decision: Bad.
Jordan Hill, F, Arizona: Despite a career filled with
coaching changes and an up-and-down junior season, the 6-foot-10
forward out of Atlanta took his game to another level this year,
averaging a double-double a game at 18.3 points and 11 rebounds.
And in a draft that doesn't feature many quality big men besides
Hill, National Player of the Year Blake Griffin and 7-foot-3 UConn
product Hasheem Thabeet, he should go somewhere within the first 10
picks.
Draft Decision: Good.
Brandon Jennings, G, Italy: There were few point guards out
of high school that were as hyped as Jennings, who spent his final
two seasons at Oak Hill. But while the Los Angeles native didn't
really help his draft stock by playing professionally overseas for
a year (he averaged only 7.6 points, 1.6 rebounds, 1.6 assists and
1.2 steals in Euroleague games) rather than attending college at
Arizona, he should go fairly high in the first round due to the
lack of quality point guards available.
Draft Decision: Good.
James Johnson, F, Wake Forest: Johnson had a solid year
for the Demon Deacons in 2008-09, averaging 15 points and 8.5
rebounds per game. While the 6-foot-9, 245-pound forward ended his
collegiate career with a loss in the first round of the NCAA
tournament to Cleveland State, his upside and body type have him
projected to go somewhere in the lottery.
Draft Decision: Good.
Ty Lawson, G, North Carolina: After this year's NCAA
tournament, there was no question who the nation's best point guard
was. Despite missing the Tar Heels' opening-round game against
Radford with a toe injury, Lawson absolutely torched opposing
backcourts during UNC's national championship run, making him
almost a lock to be the first college point guard taken in this
year's draft.
Draft Decision: Good.
B.J. Mullens, C, Ohio State: This is by far the worst
decision made by any early entry in this draft class. Mullens did
little to cement himself among the nation's top big men all season
long. The 7-footer out of Columbus, Ohio, averaged a mere 8.8
points and 4.7 rebounds per game, and while he might think a weak
class this year might improve his stock, Mullens is clearly still a
work-in-progress for whichever team calls him to the podium.
Draft Decision: Bad.
DaJuan Summers, F, Georgetown: With the departures of Jeff
Green and Roy Hibbert over the past two years, it was Summer's
responsibility this season to carry the Hoyas and hopefully get
John Thompson III's team back into the NCAA tournament. But
Georgetown struggled significantly in Big East play, and the
6-foot-8 forward out of Baltimore failed to help the former
conference champs return to such prominence.
Draft Decision: Bad.
Hasheem Thabeet, C, Connecticut: One of the few true
centers in this year's draft, Thabeet proved once again this season
with his shot-blocking and rebounding skills that he's a defensive
force. Though he couldn't get UConn past Michigan State in the
Final Four, the 7-foot-3 Tanzanian should no doubt be one of the
first three picks taken after putting up impressive numbers of 13.6
points, 10.8 rebounds and 4.2 blocks per game.
Draft Decision: Good.