Despite all the talk of a first weekend of madness -- two-seed Michigan State losing in the first round, first-round losses by a three-seed, a four-seed and two five-seeds, plus a half-court buzzer-beater that advanced Northern Iowa out of the first round followed by the most painful late-game meltdown in NCAA tournament history two days later -- we got pretty much chalk in the Sweet 16.
All the one-seeds are here. Three of the two-seeds are. The most unpredictable region going into this tournament, the West region, is the only one that has seeds one through four all remaining. The only double-digit seeds are Syracuse and Gonzaga, not exactly uncommon names to be hearing in March.
Here's what we have in store for the Sweet 16.
No. 3 Miami vs. No. 2 Villanova (South)
Line: Villanova -4
Miami's Angel Rodriguez
The Game: Miami has a superhero on its team, and that superhero is senior point guard Angel Rodrigeuz. But this superhero's basketball powers can sometimes be used against him; he can either be Good Angel or Bad Angel. When we get Good Angel, we get the second-round win over Wichita State, when Good Angel scored 28 and could hardly miss from the field. But Bad Angel reared a bit of his ugly head even in that game with a career-high seven turnovers. Bad Angel is capable of shooting this team in its foot. Villanova might be the scrappiest, hardest-working team left in this tournament, led by the ridiculous efforts of Josh Hart and Ryan Arcidiacono, he of the headlong dives over press row in the Big East tournament.
My Pick: We get Bad Angel. Villanova wins, getting 22 points apiece from Arcidiacono and Hart. All of those dumb "Jay Wright in March" demons are exorcised (until the next time he loses in the first weekend).
No. 5 Maryland vs. No. 1 Kansas (South)
Line: Kansas -6.5
Kansas' Perry Ellis
The Game: How does it feel that Maryland is one of the most disappointing teams in the country despite the fact they're in the Sweet 16? There's an argument this team is the nation's most talented. In mid-February, the Terps looked like they had finally figured out how to fit all these talented pieces together and were ranked second in the country. The Terps have gone 5-5 since then, including the embarrassing loss to Minnesota. Close games haven't gone their way like they did a year ago; the Terps have been 7-6 in games decided by five points or less (including overtime games).
And Kansas? This is the nation's deepest, most balanced, most consistent and perhaps healthiest team. In many ways Kansas is Maryland's opposite. Kansas doesn't have the elite talent, at least not among its starters; Kansas has zero likely first-round picks who start (depending how Perry Ellis' draft stock rises or falls before the draft), while Maryland has three dudes (Diamond Stone, Jake Layman and Melo Trimble) who could warrant first-round looks. And yet Kansas' pieces just fit together perfectly.
My Pick: Maryland could win it all this season. They could. They have the talent. But where's the evidence that they will? And where's the evidence that Kansas could stumble? Gotta pick Kansas. By 12. With Wayne Selden getting hot from three, scoring 25 points, and getting arrested after the game for a vicious dunk over Stone that leaves the poor freshman in tears and with a broken ego.
No. 3 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Oklahoma (West)
Line: Oklahoma -2
Oklahoma's Buddy Hield
The Game: If there is a definition to "playing with house money," it is Texas A&M in March 2016. It's not that Texas A&M's absurd comeback against UNI -- from 12 points down with under a minute left, the biggest comeback in college basketball history -- was just luck. Sure, there was luck in it. There was the late injury to UNI's in-bounder, and there was mistake after mistake by UNI. But there was also some furious and brilliant defense by Billy Kennedy's team to give them even the slightest of chances.
And so we may have two of the Sweet 16's loosest teams going against each other in Anaheim, because Texas A&M knows it probably shouldn't be here, and because Oklahoma is the nation's most fun-loving squad, led by the irrepressible and brilliant Buddy Hield. Could Hield be auditioning for as high as a top-three pick in the NBA Draft this June despite the fact he was considered a fringe first-rounder just a few months back? I tend to think Hield is more concerned with cutting down the nets next month instead of anything that'll happen in June. Michigan's Glen Rice set the NCAA tournament record in 1989 by scoring 184 points in one tournament, averaging 30.6 points over six games. Hield has 63 through two games, averaging 31.5 points per game. If Oklahoma makes the title game, Hield could break that record and go down as one of college basketball's all-time greats.
My Pick: Oklahoma in a close one. Go with destiny; go with Buddy. This keeps the possibility of Oklahoma/Kansas Part III intact for the Final Four, which is what we all want, right?
No. 4 Duke vs. No. 1 Oregon (West)
Line: Oregon -3
Duke's Grayson Allen
The Game: This may be the most aesthetically pleasing game of the tournament for basketball fans who love explosive and efficient offenses. Duke is ranked fourth in the nation in offensive efficiency, scoring 1.20 points per possession; Oregon ranks 11th at 1.18 points per possession. Despite being a one-seed, Oregon seems to have flown below the radar this year as an elite team, which means Thursday night could be Dillon Brooks' and Tyler Dorsey's national coming-out party.
The difference between these teams? Defense. Oregon's is decent. Duke doesn't have one. The Blue Devils are 109th in the nation in defensive efficiency, next to last among the remaining teams in this tournament. (How is Notre Dame still in this tournament with a defensive efficiency rating that's 172nd in the nation?)
My Pick: I haven't believed all year that Oregon or the entire Pac-12 is as good as advertised; why start now? Grayson Allen drops 30, including the game-winner for Duke. Who needs defense?
No. 4 Iowa State vs. No. 1 Virginia (Midwest)
Line: Virginia -5.5
The Game: Virginia is a team whose identity is based on discipline and defense, whereas Iowa State is a team whose identity is based on free-flowing (but inconsistent) offense. Stylistically, you can't get a better yin and yang matchup than this one.
Iowa State's Monte Morris
The Pick: Virginia is the lower seed. Virginia is the better team. If it's March, you always pick discipline over inconsistency, right? The call seems obvious here. But this is March! And Iowa State is a school that's due for some good luck. The way Virginia plays (fewer average possessions per game than any school in college basketball) means some hot shooting by Iowa State could go a long way to the biggest upset of the Sweet 16. (Fewer possessions means each 3-pointer carries added weight.) Monte Morris is subtly brilliant (19 points, 11 assists, zero turnovers) and proves why he's the best NBA-level point guard that not enough people are talking about. Sometimes you gotta go with the gut over the brain. This is America, after all.
No. 11 Gonzaga vs. No. 10 Syracuse (Midwest)
Line: Gonzaga -4.5
The Game: It's the "Cinderellas" of this tournament. Double-digit seed No. 1 is Gonzaga: A high-major school in a mid-major conference that's made an astounding 18 NCAA tournaments in a row. Gonzaga's No. 1 recruit for next season, Zach Collins, was five months old the last time Gonzaga missed an NCAA tournament. Double-digit seed No. 2 is Syracuse: Coached by 40th-year Hall of Famer Jim Boeheim, with one national title and five Final Fours to its name.
Gonzaga's Domantas Sabonis
So much for Cinderella. Both teams seemed very much in danger of missing the NCAA tournament until Gonzaga won its conference tournament and the selection committee somewhat inexplicably gifted Syracuse a 10-seed. Something to note about Gonzaga: There's been no shortage of talk about how this Gonzaga team is not nearly what we've seen from past Gonzaga teams. And while it's true the Zags hadn't beaten any elite competition this year until walloping both Seton Hall and Utah in the first two rounds, look at the Zags' seven losses. All but two were to NCAA tournament teams. All but one were by five points or fewer. This team is much better than its record indicates.
The Pick: Zags roll with amazing games from its two NBA-level players. Domantas Sabonis makes his pitch to be a lottery pick with another 21-point, 16-rebound performance, and Kyle Wiltjer lights it up from three en route to a 30-point night.
No. 7 Wisconsin vs. No. 6 Notre Dame (East)
Line: Notre Dame -1
The Game: What wins championships? Defense wins championships. Notre Dame was mentioned earlier as the nation's 172nd-rated team in defensive efficiency. Wisconsin, however, ranks 12th.
Wisconsin's Bronson Koenig
The Pick: Go with the hot team. Wisconsin has lost three times since mid-January, when new head coach Greg Gard found this team's rhythm. Wisconsin's Bronson Koenig again hits a buzzer-beating three, adding to the feeling of unexpected destiny with this team. Video surfaces of Frank Kaminsky watching the game on an iPad from the Charlotte Hornets' bench during their Friday road game at Detroit and explains why he did a dramatic feet-first slide into center court in the middle of NBA action. Kaminsky is suspended one game but does not care.
No. 5 Indiana vs. No. 1 UNC (East)
Line: UNC -5.5
The Game: The final game of the Sweet 16 (scheduled tip: 9:57 p.m. ET) will be the best. Blueblood vs. blueblood. A team that came into the season with loads of national title expectations on its shoulders (UNC) against a team that in December looked like a dumpster fire then somehow turned it all around (Indiana). A team that can really score (UNC) against a team that can really score (Indiana). A blueblood led by seniors (UNC with Marcus Paige and Brice Johnson) against a blueblood led by a senior (Indiana with Yogi Ferrell).
North Carolina's Marcus Paige
The Pick: UNC is deep, talented, fast-paced and on a roll. It will fall to Indiana's surging freshman, Thomas Bryant, to hold UNC's dominant big men in check, specifically on the defensive glass, where UNC ranks fourth in the nation in offensive rebounding. And yet what's the ultimate equalizer in college basketball? The three-point shot. UNC shoots 31.4 percent from three, 308th in the nation, and gets a lower percentage of its points from three than all but six teams nationally. Indiana shoots 41.6 percent from three, fifth in the nation, and has the nation's highest effective field goal percentage. In the last game of the Sweet 16, Indiana makes shots, while UNC doesn't; Yogi Ferrell and Troy Williams don't turn the ball over, while Joel Berry and Justin Jackson do; Indiana pulls off the biggest upset in the Sweet 16.
Follow Reid Forgrave on Twitter @reidforgrave or email him at ReidForgrave@gmail.com.
