Big Ten preview: Wisconsin stable of returners make it a favorite
Sports Illustrated’s 2016–17 preview is guided by data from our College Basketball Projection System, a collaboration between economist Dan Hanner and SI’s Luke Winn and Jeremy Fuchs. We project teams on a player-by-player, lineup-based level and then simulate the season 10,000 times to generate our 1–351 national rankings and conference forecasts.
These are the model’s projections for the Big Ten, including individual awards, the teams’ order of finish and (advanced and raw) stats for the top seven players in each school’s rotation.
Find more about how our projection system works here, and read all of our 2016–17 preview content here.
The Big Picture
The Big Ten may not have a true powerhouse, but it does have a projected champ with a rare level of roster continuity. Wisconsin returns 99% of its overall minutes played from ‘15–16 and figures to have one of the nation’s best defenses in Greg Gard’s first full season as coach. Purdue and Indiana look like top-15 teams who’ll challenge the Badgers, and our model’s most contrarian projection is that Michigan is the league’s fourth-best team—just ahead of Michigan State—and worthy of a top-25 ranking.
Player of the Year: Nigel Hayes, Wisconsin
This is a wide-open race. Hayes will have competition from teammates Bronson Koenig and Ethan Happ; Maryland’s Melo Trimble could have a bounce-back junior season and run away with the award; Indiana has multiple candidates in Thomas Bryant and James Blackmon Jr.; and Iowa’s Peter Jok and Illinois’s Malcolm Hill project to the be the conference’s top two scorers. But Hayes, whom SI forecasts to lead the league’s best team in points (15.9) and assists (2.8) per game, is the most sensible pick. After just a so-so junior season, his efficiency is likely to improve as his supporting cast gets more experienced, and he’s already the conference’s most advanced frontcourt passer.
Newcomer of the Year: Miles Bridges, Michigan State
Bridges and teammate Josh Langford are the only RSCI top-20 freshmen debuting in the Big Ten this season. SI projects Bridges to be the Spartans’ highest possession-user (at 25%) and average 12.5 points and 3.5 rebounds. He’s a physically imposing, explosive 3-4 man who’ll produce plenty of highlights. Coach Tom Izzo has called Bridges a “man-child.” But will he be efficient? If he settles too often for his unreliable three-point shot, he could drag down Michigan State’s offense.
All-Conference First Team & Sixth Man
PG: Melo Trimble, Maryland
SG: Malcolm Hill, Illinois
SG: Peter Jok, Iowa
SF: Nigel Hayes, Wisconsin
PF: Caleb Swanigan, Purdue
6th man: SG: James Blackmon Jr., Indiana
(Second team: PG: Bronson Koenig, Wisconsin; WG: Zak Irvin, Michigan; SF: Vince Edwards, Purdue; PF: Ethan Happ, Wisconsin; C: Thomas Bryant, Indiana)
Projected Order of Finish
| Conference Rank | Team | Proj. Conf. Record | ’15-16 Conf. Record |
| 1 | Wisconsin | 14–4 | 12–6 |
| 2 | Purdue | 12–6 | 12–6 |
| 3 | Indiana | 12–6 | 15–3 |
| 4 | Michigan | 10–8 | 10–8 |
| 5 | Michigan State | 10–8 | 13–5 |
| 6 | Maryland | 10–8 | 12–6 |
| 7 | Ohio State | 10–8 | 11–7 |
| 8 | Northwestern | 9–9 | 8–10 |
| 9 | Illinois | 8–10 | 5–13 |
| 10 | Iowa | 8–10 | 12–6 |
| 11 | Penn State | 7–11 | 7–11 |
| 12 | Nebraska | 7–11 | 6–12 |
| 13 | Minnesota | 6–12 | 2–16 |
| 14 | Rutgers | 3–15 | 1–17 |
1. Wisconsin (14–4)
| Name | Pos. | Class | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| Nigel Hayes | Sr | PF | 15.9 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 113.3 | 27% | 85% |
| Bronson Koenig | Sr | PG | 13.4 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 119.1 | 20% | 84% |
| Ethan Happ | So | PF | 12.5 | 7.1 | 1.2 | 108.8 | 25% | 70% |
| Vitto Brown | Sr | PF | 9.5 | 5.2 | 0.9 | 110.0 | 20% | 63% |
| Zak Showalter | Sr | SG | 7.6 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 117.9 | 15% | 70% |
| Alex Illikainen | So | PF | 3.4 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 108.8 | 15% | 35% |
| Jordan Hill | Jr | PG | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 101.8 | 14% | 32% |
2. Purdue (12–6)
| Name | Pos. | Class | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| Deividas Zemgulis | So | SF | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.9 | 16% | 0% |
| Vince Edwards | Jr | SF | 13.6 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 116.8 | 24% | 74% |
| Caleb Swanigan | So | PF | 13.5 | 10.0 | 1.7 | 106.5 | 26% | 72% |
| Isaac Haas | Jr | C | 13.4 | 6.2 | 0.7 | 120.0 | 27% | 52% |
| P.J. Thompson | Jr | PG | 8.6 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 128.8 | 15% | 75% |
| Dakota Mathias | Jr | SG | 8.1 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 121.4 | 16% | 63% |
| Ryan Cline | So | SG | 6.9 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 119.1 | 17% | 50% |
3. Indiana (12–6)
| Name | Pos. | Class | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| James Blackmon Jr. | Jr | SG | 17.6 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 124.6 | 26% | 70% |
| Thomas Bryant | So | PF/C | 13.0 | 6.5 | 1.0 | 126.4 | 22% | 64% |
| OG Anunoby | So | SF | 10.2 | 5.5 | 1.2 | 118.4 | 18% | 68% |
| Robert Johnson | Jr | SG/PG | 9.8 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 122.6 | 18% | 69% |
| Josh Newkirk | Jr | PG | 9.3 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 104.8 | 21% | 63% |
| De'Ron Davis | Fr | PF | 8.0 | 5.0 | 0.7 | 109.2 | 19% | 53% |
| Curtis Jones | Fr | SG | 6.0 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 107.6 | 19% | 42% |
4. Michigan (10–8)
| Name | Pos. | Class | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| Zak Irvin | Sr | SF | 14.1 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 110.9 | 23% | 85% |
| Derrick Walton, Jr. | Sr | PG | 13.0 | 5.0 | 4.3 | 116.7 | 22% | 85% |
| Duncan Robinson | Jr | SG/SF | 12.4 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 126.8 | 18% | 74% |
| Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman | Jr | SG | 9.4 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 114.5 | 17% | 70% |
| Mark Donnal | Jr | PF | 9.3 | 4.6 | 0.5 | 124.9 | 20% | 55% |
| Xavier Simpson | Fr | PG | 6.0 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 108.2 | 19% | 45% |
| Moritz Wagner | So | PF | 5.0 | 3.0 | 0.3 | 112.1 | 18% | 36% |
5. Michigan State (10–8)
| Name | Pos. | Class | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| Eron Harris | SG | Sr | 14.3 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 115.1 | 23% | 76% |
| Miles Bridges | SF | Fr | 13.5 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 105.1 | 25% | 74% |
| Josh Langford | SG | Fr | 11.2 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 109.9 | 21% | 68% |
| Nick Ward | PF | Fr | 9.2 | 5.5 | 0.7 | 105.8 | 21% | 58% |
| Cassius Winston | PG | So | 7.7 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 106.7 | 21% | 53% |
| Matt McQuaid | SG | FJr | 7.4 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 113.5 | 16% | 67% |
| Tum Tum Nairn Jr. | PG | Jr | 3.7 | 1.8 | 3.4 | 108.0 | 15% | 52% |
6. Maryland (10–8)
| Name | Pos. | Class | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| Melo Trimble | Jr | PG | 16.7 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 113.6 | 29% | 82% |
| Jared Nickens | Jr | SF | 10.7 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 111.9 | 17% | 73% |
| L.G. Gill | Sr | PF | 7.9 | 4.7 | 0.9 | 100.7 | 19% | 57% |
| Justin Jackson | Fr | SF | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 101.7 | 21% | 51% |
| Dion Wiley | So | SG | 7.4 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 102.9 | 19% | 53% |
| Kevin Huerter | Fr | SG | 7.2 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 104.3 | 18% | 53% |
| Damonte Dodd | Sr | PF | 5.5 | 4.6 | 0.7 | 105.4 | 15% | 55% |
7. Ohio State (10–8)
| Name | Pos. | Class | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| Marc Loving | Sr | PF | 14.9 | 5.8 | 1.5 | 113.8 | 21% | 84% |
| JaQuan Lyle | So | PG | 12.2 | 4.6 | 3.9 | 104.9 | 25% | 73% |
| Jae'sean Tate | Jr | SF | 12.1 | 6.1 | 1.3 | 116.4 | 21% | 70% |
| Keita Bates-Diop | Jr | SF | 12.0 | 6.4 | 1.3 | 118.6 | 19% | 74% |
| Kam Williams | Jr | SG | 10.0 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 125.9 | 17% | 60% |
| Trevor Thompson | Jr | C | 7.7 | 6.0 | 0.4 | 108.3 | 20% | 52% |
| C.J. Jackson | So | PG | 5.0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 101.3 | 19% | 40% |
8. Northwestern (9–9)
| Name | Pos. | Class | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| Bryant McIntosh | Jr | PG | 15.0 | 3.7 | 6.2 | 111.3 | 26% | 89% |
| Aaron Falzon | So | PF | 10.9 | 4.8 | 1.0 | 113.2 | 20% | 69% |
| Scottie Lindsey | Jr | SG/SF | 9.7 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 109.6 | 19% | 64% |
| Vic Law | So | SF | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 104.0 | 22% | 60% |
| Dererk Pardon | So | PF | 8.8 | 5.0 | 0.5 | 113.6 | 21% | 51% |
| Gavin Skelly | Jr | PF | 5.6 | 4.8 | 1.0 | 111.2 | 17% | 49% |
| Sanjay Lumpkin | Sr | SF | 4.1 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 110.5 | 13% | 50% |
9. Illinois (8–10)
| Name | Pos. | Class | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| Malcolm Hill | Sr | SG | 18.7 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 114.2 | 28% | 86% |
| Tracy Abrams | Sr | PG | 12.2 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 110.7 | 21% | 81% |
| Jalen Coleman-Lands | So | SG | 11.9 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 116.4 | 18% | 72% |
| Mike Thorne Jr. | Sr | C | 11.0 | 6.7 | 0.5 | 110.9 | 26% | 55% |
| Leron Black | Jr | PF | 7.7 | 4.6 | 0.5 | 108.1 | 19% | 43% |
| Michael Finke | So | PF | 6.6 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 114.9 | 17% | 49% |
| Maverick Morgan | Sr | PF | 6.4 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 113.3 | 17% | 45% |
10. Iowa (8–10)
| Name | Pos. | Class | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| Peter Jok | Sr | SG | 21.4 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 113.8 | 26% | 90% |
| Dominique Uhl | Jr | PF | 11.1 | 6.5 | 1.4 | 107.3 | 20% | 73% |
| Nicholas Baer | So | SF | 8.1 | 4.2 | 0.9 | 117.5 | 18% | 54% |
| Christian Williams | So | PG | 7.4 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 98.6 | 19% | 58% |
| Tyler Cook | Fr | C | 7.2 | 3.2 | 0.5 | 106.5 | 18% | 51% |
| Dale Jones | Jr | PF | 5.7 | 3.3 | 0.4 | 108.9 | 19% | 37% |
| Ahmad Wagner | So | PF | 5.5 | 4.6 | 0.5 | 112.3 | 16% | 47% |
11. Penn State (7–11)
| Name | Pos. | Class | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| Shep Garner | Jr | PG | 14.7 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 108.8 | 24% | 84% |
| Payton Banks | Jr | SF | 9.8 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 99.2 | 20% | 71% |
| Tony Carr | Fr | PG | 9.4 | 1.5 | 3.4 | 107.8 | 19% | 70% |
| Mike Watkins | Fr | PF | 7.3 | 5.1 | 0.6 | 102.0 | 18% | 55% |
| Lamar Stevens | Fr | SF | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 102.0 | 20% | 44% |
| Josh Reaves | So | SG | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 100.2 | 21% | 51% |
| Terrence Samuel | Sr | SG | 5.3 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 97.7 | 20% | 49% |
12. Nebraska (7–11)
| Name | Pos. | Class | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| Glynn Watson Jr. | So | PG | 11.6 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 108.7 | 22% | 72% |
| Tai Webster | Sr | SG | 10.8 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 105.2 | 21% | 70% |
| Anton Gill | Jr | G | 9.8 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 100.6 | 22% | 61% |
| Isaiah Roby | Fr | SF | 8.0 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 110.3 | 19% | 55% |
| Ed Morrow | So | PF | 7.7 | 4.8 | 0.4 | 110.0 | 21% | 50% |
| Jack McVeigh | So | SF | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 108.0 | 19% | 55% |
| Michael Jacobson | So | PF | 6.9 | 5.6 | 0.7 | 114.4 | 17% | 60% |
13. Minnesota (6–12)
| Name | Pos. | Class | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| Nate Mason | Jr | PG | 15.0 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 109.7 | 24% | 85% |
| Jordan Murphy | So | SF | 12.0 | 6.7 | 1.0 | 102.2 | 26% | 66% |
| Amir Coffey | Fr | SG/SF | 9.7 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 113.4 | 17% | 72% |
| Akeem Springs | Sr | SG | 9.7 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 108.2 | 18% | 63% |
| Reggie Lynch | Jr | C | 9.2 | 5.7 | 0.5 | 110.2 | 21% | 55% |
| Dupree McBrayer | So | PG/SG | 7.3 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 102.8 | 19% | 61% |
| Bakary Konate | Jr | C | 4.7 | 4.3 | 0.5 | 105.7 | 15% | 45% |
14. Rutgers (3–15)
| Name | Pos. | Class | PPG | RPG | APG | ORtg | Volume | Mins |
| Corey Sanders | So | PG | 16.2 | 3.3 | 4.3 | 103.2 | 27% | 87% |
| Mike Williams | Jr | SG | 13.2 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 102.5 | 23% | 76% |
| Deshawn Freeman | Jr | PF | 11.9 | 5.8 | 1.3 | 103.8 | 23% | 70% |
| Nigel Johnson | Jr | PG | 10.1 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 111.7 | 18% | 79% |
| Jonathan Laurent | So | SF | 7.1 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 107.2 | 16% | 58% |
| C.J. Gettys | Sr | C | 4.8 | 4.7 | 0.6 | 110.9 | 16% | 45% |
| Candido Sa | Jr | PF | 3.7 | 2.9 | 0.3 | 105.4 | 17% | 30% |
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