Miami Dolphins 2016 preview: A new coach, but the usual story in Miami?
After posting back-to-back 8-8 seasons in 2013 and 2014, Joe Philbin and Dan Campbell coached Miami to an underwhelming 6-10 finish in 2015. This year the Dolphins will have a new face calling the shots in former Bears and Broncos offensive coordinator Adam Gase. Now the question is whether Gase will be able to help Miami earn its first playoff win since 2000 during his first season as a head coach. Gase is far from the only new arrival in Miami, however. On defense, the Dolphins brought in cornerback Byron Maxwell and linebacker Kiko Alonso via a trade with Philadelphia and also signed former No. 1 pick Mario Williams to help fill the gap left by Olivier Vernon and Derrick Shelby at defensive end. Offensively, running back Arian Foster will try to pick up where Lamar Miller left off in the backfield, and may benefit from the addition of O-lineman Laremy Tunsil, who could wind up being the steal of the 2016 draft after his controversial fall out of the top five.
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Gase did wonders for Jay Cutler during his lone season in Chicago, and the hope is that he’ll be able to do the same for Tannehill in Miami. Tannehill has been the definition of a ho-hum quarterback during his four years with the Dolphins, and it’s time he starts earning that massive contract extension he signed last year.
Miami was one of six teams to give up at least 2,000 yards on the ground last season, and while Suh wasn’t necessarily the source of the Dolphins struggles against the run, the tackle with the $114 million contract is always going to shoulder the blame. If Suh regresses even a little bit in 2016, the entire defensive unit will suffer for it. He did suffer an ankle injury late in the preseason.
When Miami finally used Parker during the latter half of last season, he flashed some of the potential that made him a first-round pick in 2015. With Rishard Matthews and Greg Jennings now gone, Parker should see even more balls thrown his way this season and could be primed for a breakout year. He has been hampered, though, by injuries in the preseason. FANTASY SPIN
Our FOX Sports fantasy colleague D.J. Foster wrote a compelling piece for and against drafting Arian Foster this season. His best argument against drafting him focused on NFL players returning from Achilles tendon injuries and how the outlook is historically bleak. What doesn’t help Foster’s case is not only did he miss 12 games last season, but 11 more games in 2013-14. However, with an average fantasy football draft position of the late-fifth round (RB-22), if Foster can find that spark once more, he’s capable of finishing with 1,000 rush yards and 30-40 receptions in Adam Gase’s system this season.
(All lines courtesy of Bovada.com, as of 8/31)
Season win total over/under: 7 (over EVEN, under -130)
Odds to win the Super Bowl: 75/1. The Dolphins rolled the dice with a big payday for Ryan Tannehill, and that hasn't panned out so far. Don't be like Miami. Don't risk large amounts of money on a wager that won't work. Avoid betting on the Dolphins to win the Super Bowl.
One thing we wish we could bet on: Ndamukong Suh facing some sort of discipline this season. 2015 was a banner year for Suh: his first season in the NFL without facing any form of discipline for an on-field incident. Maybe he's turned over a new leaf, but we're going to roll with history and bet that something gets under Suh's skin in 2016.
September 11, at Seattle
The schedule-makers clearly have it out for Gase, whose reward for snagging his first head job is a Week 1 trip clear across the country into the toughest road environment in the league. A victory here isn’t likely, but if Miami somehow escapes with a W, it sure would provide a boost going into another tough test in Foxborough in Week 2.
October 23, vs. Buffalo
Rex Ryan had some harsh parting words for Mario Williams after he left for Miami during the offseason, and Williams, who had his worst season as a pro in 2015, will surely be amped up for the first of two matchups against his former head coach. Grab some popcorn, because this reunion could get explosive.
January 1, vs. New England
If Miami is going to make the playoffs — and that’s a pretty big if — it’ll likely need to beat the Patriots in the season finale to do it. Fortunately for the Dolphins, they’ve won their last three home games against New England, and Tom Brady has played in every one of them.
We say: 6-10
WhatIfSports simulation says: 7-9
— Sam Gardner, Andrew Lynch (betting), John Halpin (fantasy)
