UFC On FUEL 10: Prelim Predictions
Raphael Assuncao (18-4) vs. Vaughan Lee (13-8-1)
An international bantamweight showdown tops the Facebook prelims as Brazil's own Assuncao takes on the Briitsh prospect Lee.
Assuncao, 30, is coming off his biggest career victory -- a unanimous decision over Mike Easton this past December. Unbeaten in his past three appearances, the BJJ black belt and Ascension Mixed Martial Arts representative is truly coming into his own as a viable contender.
Lee, 30, shocked the world when he submitted Norifumi "Kid" Yamamoto at UFC 144 in February 2012. The slick southpaw has since gone 1-1, suffering a first-round submission loss against T.J. Dillashaw and outpointing Motonobu Tezuka. The Birmingham-based Ultimate Training Centre product is primarily a submission artist, but he would be well-advised to avoid rolling around with Assuncao.
Ultimately, Lee's best strategy is to initiate the clinch and grind away over three rounds. Assuncao's physical strength and superior overall game will be vital factors as he anticipates Lee's attempts to close the distance and cruises to a one-sided decision win.
Verdict: Assuncao via Decision
Godofredo Pepey (9-1) vs. Felipe Arantes (14-4-1)
Brazilian featherweights Pepey and Arantes look to climb the ladder in preliminary action.
Pepey, 25, a BJJ black belt, eked out a split decision over Milton Vieira in January. The Marcio Cupim Team and Evolução Thai member dropped a decision to Rony Jason in the "TUF: Brazil" featherweight final last year, his only professional loss.
Arantes, 25, a BJJ purple belt and muay thai black belt, fought Vieira to a split draw last June. In his prior UFC appearances, Arantes defeated Antonio Carvalho before dropping a decision to Yuri Alcantara. Based at Macaco Gold Team, the São Paulo native should possess a clear-cut edge with his striking.
Pepey's takedowns and top control are his keys to victory, while Arantes likely knows better than to oblige Pepey in a submission match. Look for Arantes to pick his shots standing over the course of three rounds, while stopping critical takedown attempts to earn the decision.
Verdict: Arantes via Decision
Ildemar Alcantara (18-5) vs. Leandro Silva (11-0-1)
Dropping from 205 to 170 pounds, Alcantara faces fellow Brazilian welterweight Silva.
Alcantara, 30, a BJJ brown belt, shocked Wagner Prado with a second-round kneebar in his promotional debut this past January, a fight that took place in the light heavyweight division. A talented muay thai and submission player, the brother of UFC bantamweight contender Yuri Alcantara is riding an impressive eight-fight winning streak.
Silva, 27, is coming off a split decision win over UFC veteran Chris Wilson this past March. Still perfect in his professional campaign, Silva, who trains muay thai with Diego Lima at the famed Chute Boxe academy, is also a well-rounded fighter who can finish an opponent anywhere.
Alcantara already has the benefit of a UFC fight under his belt and he should be one step ahead in this evenly matched bout. In addition to threatening with submissions, Alcantara should land effective combinations to come out on top.
Verdict: Alcantara via Decision
Rodrigo Damm (10-6) vs. Mizuto Hirota (14-6-1)
The Brazil-Japan rivalry is renewed as Damm attempts to return to the win column against Hirota in a featherweight matchup.
Damm, 33, last saw action in November when he dropped a split decision to Antonio Carvalho at UFC 154. Damm is only 2-5 in his last seven professional bouts, so the 3rd degree BJJ black belt and Brazilian national wrestling team member is in a must-win situation.
Hirota, 32, dropped a unanimous decision to Rani Yahya in his UFC debut this past March. Despite a two-fight losing streak, the former Sengoku and DEEP champion could finally achieve his full potential at 145 pounds after competing as a lightweight for the majority of his career. The well-rounded Nagasaki native owns marquee wins over Seichi Ikemoto, Katsunori Kikuno, Satoru Kitaoka, Mitsuhiro Ishida and Ryan Schultz.
Although Damm has the home field advantage, Hirota is far more experienced against a higher caliber of competition. Hirota is also more dangerous on his feet, having knocked out over half of his career victims. Hirota should anticipate takedown attempts and tactically pick his shots throughout the fight, inevitably prevailing by decision to spoil Damm's Brazilian homecoming.
Verdict: Hirota via Decision
Caio Magalhaes (5-1) vs. Karlos Vemola (9-3)
In a middleweight meeting, Brazil's Magalhaes takes on the Czech slugger Vemola.
Magalhaes, 25, suffered his first career loss in his UFC debut last June, dropping a unanimous decision against Buddy Roberts. The Nova Uniao product is a powerful BJJ black belt and former Shooto South American champion, so the ground game could be his key on Saturday night.
Vemola, 27, is 1-2 since dropping to middleweight. Most recently, the London Shootfighters member was submitted by Francis Carmont last July. Previously competing at heavyweight, Vemola's size and strength are notable advantages in his newfound weight class. The six-time Czech Republic national wrestling champion packs a heavy punch, but he should avoid sloppy takedowns that could leave him susceptible to chokes.
Magalhaes turned in a tepid performance in his promotional debut. Vemola should capitalize on any hesitation by pushing the pace, landing the better strikes and overpowering his foe in the clinch. Aggression and pressure should sway the fight in Vemola's favor.
Verdict: Vemola via Decision
Antonio Braga Neto (8-1) vs. Anthony Smith (17-9)
In a clash of UFC newcomers, the BJJ black belt and 11-time gold medal winner Neto throws down with the American Strikeforce import Smith.
Neto, 25, is coming off submission wins over UFC veterans Brock Larson and Maiquel Falcao. The once-beaten Brazilian spends the majority of his training camp in Singapore where he works with the Evolve MMA team in an effort to develop his striking base.
Smith, 24, was submitted by Roger Gracie in the second round of their matchup this past February under the Strikeforce banner. The Texan was previously riding a three-fight winning streak, including a first-round submission of Lumumba Sayers. The BJJ purple belt is actually quite slick on the ground, but Neto is on another level. Smith needs to keep the fight standing at all costs as he pursues his 10th career knockout.
Smith should have learned from his mistake against Gracie, so he'll be weary of Neto's takedown setups. However, Neto is an aggressive BJJ player, so he'll look to bring the fight into his realm by any means necessary. Once he gets him there, it's only a matter of time.
Verdict: Neto via Submission, Round 2
