UFC Fight Night: Mir vs. Duffee Crystal Ball Predictions
If you're wiped out from a devastatingly good weekend of fights, dust yourself off and get yourself ready for another solid event, this time from San Diego at UFC Fight Night on Wednesday night. In the main event, we've got former training partners turned heavyweight rivals, Frank Mir and Todd Duffee, facing off with the hopes of rising in the UFC ranks.
Below that, one of the best fighters of the past decade in one of the sport's best divisions, Josh Thomson, takes on the surging Tony Ferguson. If Ferguson pulls off the win, he'll shoot into the 155-pound division's top 10.
There are plenty more fights this Wednesday as well, so read on for our analysis and picks to get ready. Then, let us know who you're picking in the comments section, and on Facebook and Twitter!
Frank Mir (17-9) vs. Todd Duffee (9-2)
Mir and Duffee have exchanged some tense trash talk over the past few months since this heavyweight main event was announced, which could mean that each big man comes in with extra mental ammunition to use. Both fighters have quick hands and powerful punches, and both are truly large individuals.
That's about where the similarities end, however. Mir is a historically good Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu practitioner who can take a limb off of anyone on the planet. As for Duffee, we still don't know a whole lot of what he offers beyond his impressive athleticism.
That has a lot to do with long stretches of inactivity due to health problems for the American Top Team fighter. Duffee has won three straight fights coming into Fight Night San Diego, all by stoppage, but his December win over Anthony Hamilton was the first time the 29-year-old had competed in nearly two years.
Mir himself came back after a fairly long absence and snapped a long losing streak in February over Antonio Silva to re-establish himself in the top 10. Both men may be rejuvenated, but Duffee will still have youth, speed and strength on his size.
If he can use any or all of that to keep Mir off of him, or to press Mir against the cage and do some work in the clinch, he could very well outpace and outlast the former champion. If Mir is able to get Duffee on the ground with enough time to work in a round, however, he could very well get another win.
Duffee will be hard to take and keep down, and Mir will be hard to get off should he force the fight to the ground. It may very well end up being a canceled-out grappling affair with both men winging punches on the feet for the majority of the fight.
If so, it's anyone's to win or lose.
Prediction: Duffee by decision
Josh Thomson (20-7) vs. Tony Ferguson (19-3)
Is Tony Ferguson (L) dangerous enough to take out long-time top lightweight Josh Thomson?
The streaking Ferguson has a chance not to just win his sixth straight fight, but to earn the single biggest win of his career.
Meanwhile, Thomson has arguably been a top-five lightweight for over a decade.
"The Punk" is simply one of the most well-rounded and accomplished lightweights in the world. He's proven that he can compete and win at the highest levels, and though he technically has lost two out of his last three, including a controversial decision loss to former world champion Benson Henderson, the only time Thomson has looked a bit off was in his last fight, against Bobby Green last July.
Of course, that could be because the 36-year-old may have finally just begun to age a bit. Ferguson should certainly hope so.
Like Thomson, Ferguson is a strong wrestler, but he's also longer and may be even sharper with submissions, in addition to being younger. We like Ferguson's front chokes, his long punches, chin and youth.
We like Thomson's experience, versatility and great scrambling ability.
Prediction: Thomson by decision
Holly Holm (8-0) vs. Marion Reneau (6-1)
Former world champion boxing champ Holly Holm has entered the UFC with a great deal of attention.
This is my bet for fight of the night. Both women are fantastic MMA strikers, with precision, poise and skill to spare.
Everyone is talking about the former dominant world champion boxer Holm -- and for good reason -- but Reneau may have what it takes to spoil her ascension to the top of the bantamweight division.
If Reneau can pressure Holm on the feet, and then keep up with her greatly improving grappling game, she has a good shot at stealing a win and jumping into title contention. Holm will need to use her footwork, and mix in takedowns with her punches and kicks, to keep up her winning ways.
Prediction: Holm by decision
Scott Jorgensen (15-10) vs. Manny Gamburyan (17-9)
Both men are trying out a relatively new division (flyweight) after contending for the top spot in heavier divisions. Jorgensen has lost four of his last five, and six of his last eight, overall.
He needs a win badly to prove to himself that he should stay in the game. Gamburyan is coming off a win but has also had his share of ups and downs over an impressive career also plagued by injuries.
Jorgensen's solid wrestling will be an interesting clash with Gamburyan's Judo and Sambo. Chances are, both men will spend a lot of time in the clinch, as well as swinging big in the center of the Octagon.
Prediction: Gamburyan by decision
Kevin Lee (10-1) vs. James Moontasri (8-2)
This young gun showdown should be a fun one. Lee is explosive with takedowns and strikes, and Moontasri has slick transitions on the ground.
Lee may have been more consistent against top competition, over the course of the past couple years, but Moontasri looked great in his last fight, his first UFC win, and he is likely more confident than ever.
Prediction: Lee by decision
Alan Jouban (11-3) vs. Matt Dwyer (8-2)
Alan Jouban (R) is intent on kicking his way into the welterweight division's top-10.
At 6'4”, Dwyer is a giant at welterweight. He also has good conditioning and recovery time going for him, along with solid striking.
Jouban is the better athlete, however, and he stands a good chance of using his quick footwork to move in and out on the bigger man. Jouban tells us that he believes he can put Dwyer away if he connects, and we believe him.
Prediction: Jouban by second-round TKO.
Sam Sicilia (14-5) vs. Yaotzin Meza (20-10)
Sicilia may be the quicker and more powerful fighter, so Meza had better get himself into position to use his excellent submission skills.
Prediction: Sicilia by decision.
Jessica Andrade (12-4) vs. Sarah Moras (4-2)
Moras is tough and unflinching, but Andrade may be too experienced and athletic for her, at present.
Prediction: Andrade by decision
Rani Yahya (20-8) vs. Masanori Kanehara (24-11-5)
Kanehara is experienced beyond his years but will need to watch his neck against the Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu ace.
Prediction: Kanehara by decision.
Igor Araujo (25-7) vs. Sean Strickland (15-1)
If Strickland can connect with clean strikes early, his power could win him the day.
Prediction: Strickland by decision.
Kevin Casey (9-3) vs. Ildemar Alcantara (21-7)
Alcantara has the striking power but he'd better not end up on his back against the Gracie-trained Casey.
Prediction: Casey by submission.
Andrew Craig (9-3) vs. Lyman Good (18-3)
Craig has the UFC experience edge, here, and has the savvy to figure out a way to win.
Prediction: Craig by decision.
