UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs. Thatch Crystal Ball Predictions
This weekend's UFC Fight Night card from Broomfield, Colorado, features a ton of close matchups including the main event where former lightweight champion Benson Henderson moves up to 170 pounds to take on rising star Brandon Thatch.
The co-main event will see multi-time UFC veteran Cole Miller take on Hawaiian knockout artist Max Holloway, who enters the contest on a three-fight win streak with finishes in all three bouts.
So as this card fast approaches, let's take a look at some of the best matchups and who has the best shot at coming away victorious on Saturday night.
BENSON HENDERSON vs. BRANDON THATCH
For the past few years, Henderson has been one of the best fighters in the world at 155 pounds, including a run as champion, but now for the first time in his UFC career he's bumping up to welterweight after long contemplating a move to 170 pounds. Henderson has always had notoriously tough weight cuts to get down to 155 pounds, so this move will allow him to eat a little bit more on fight week and not have to worry as much about his first battle going against the scale on weigh-in day.
That said, Henderson is not getting an easy matchup for his first fight at welterweight considering Thatch is a massive fighter competing at 170 pounds. Thatch will have five inches of height over Henderson as well as a significant reach advantage when the fight starts on Saturday.
While there are still some unknowns about Thatch, with only two fights in his UFC career, the potential and upside are huge on this 29-year old from Colorado. Thatch hits hard and hits heavy from the opening bell until his opponents are staring up at the lights. He has 11 wins in his career, with all of them coming inside the first round. Of course, that does bring up the question about his ability to go into deeper waters with a five-round machine like Henderson, but if he can blast the former champion early, Thatch may not have to worry about the latter rounds.
Henderson is a beast at 155 pounds, but he's going to be giving up a lot of size and a lot of power to Thatch in this fight. Can he overcome it? If anyone can, it's Henderson, but Thatch isn't just a big strong welterweight -- he's also a very, very good welterweight prospect with top 15 aspirations in 2015.
Prediction: Brandon Thatch by TKO, Round 3
COLE MILLER vs. MAX HOLLOWAY
Miller remains one of the toughest and most dangerous fighters in the UFC featherweight division, but he's facing a true buzzsaw in Hawaiian-born Holloway, who has blown through his last three opponents, finishing all of them by knockout or TKO.
Holloway has always been viewed as a solid prospect at 145 pounds and he's still the only fighter to go three full rounds with top contender Conor McGregor in the UFC. He's been battle-tested against some of the top fighters in the world and Holloway has really started to shine in recent contests.
With a long reach and devastating striking ability, Holloway is a fighter who could one day threaten for the UFC featherweight title if he continues on the path he's had lately inside the Octagon. Miller will definitely present some interesting looks for Holloway with equal height and reach, but a significant advantage when it comes to submission skills on the ground.
The problem is, Miller might struggle to get Holloway to the mat in the first place. Holloway has blocked nearly 77 percent of the takedowns attempted against him in his UFC career. While Miller is no slouch on the feet, standing and trading with Holloway will probably end with him losing a lot of exchanges and that could ultimately lead to him losing the fight.
Prediction: Max Holloway by unanimous decision
NEIL MAGNY vs. KIICHI KUNIMOTO
It's a battle of striker vs. grappler in this welterweight contest between Magny and Kunimoto on Saturday night's main card.
Magny is riding a five-fight win streak, longest in the welterweight division, and a big part of his success lately has come because of his growing confidence. The former "Ultimate Fighter" competitor has found great ability to put together some nasty combinations on the feet while using his superior range to keep his opponents at the end of his shots.
Kunimoto is primarily a grappler with world-class submission skills, but considering Magny possesses nearly 71-percent takedown defense, getting him down is going to be a challenge. Magny also enters this fight with the hometown crowd on his side, as well as a conditioning advantage with his training camp taking place in the thin air of Denver for the past two months.
Unless Kunimoto can get this one on the ground early, he's probably going to be eating a lot of shots from Magny, especially in rounds two and three.
Prediction: Neil Magny by TKO, Round 3
DAN KELLY vs. PATRICK WALSH
TUF Nations fighter Kelly will look for his second win in a row as he takes on "Ultimate Fighter 19" competitor Walsh.
Kelly is a four-time Olympian in Judo out of Australia with a growing arsenal of submissions in his back pocket including a nasty kimura, which he used against Luke Zachrich in his last fight to get a win. At 37, Kelly got a late start on his UFC career, but he showed great poise in his debut after a lackluster appearance on the reality show in 2014.
As for Walsh, he's a college wrestler who competed at The Ohio State University, which is one of the premiere programs in the country. Walsh is competing at middleweight despite the fact that he could likely cut down to 170 pounds, although luckily he's not giving up much size in this matchup.
The key to this fight really does come down to Kelly's Judo vs. Walsh's wrestling. Walsh used a wrestling-heavy attack to stop Dan Spohn from springing into any kind of an offensive rhythm when they met in July, and Walsh could absolutely do the same thing to Kelly on Saturday night. Kelly is going to be crafty with submissions whether he's on the top or bottom, but if Walsh can survive the first round while working up a good sweat for the later parts of the fight, he should be able to eke out a decision.
Prediction: Patrick Walsh by unanimous decision
KEVIN LEE vs. MICHEL PRAZARES
Kevin Lee and Michel Prazares are both looking for a third win in a row in the UFC after both men put on impressive performances recently.
Lee has looked very solid through three fights thus far inside the Octagon, with his only loss coming by way of decision to current top 15-ranked lightweight Al Iaquinta in his debut. In his last two fights, Lee has separated himself from the competition with wins over Jon Tuck and Jesse Ronson using a superior striking game mixed with an explosive wrestling attack, hitting angles from different levels to land the takedown.
Prazares is a tough customer as well, especially with his performance vs. Mairbek Taisumov in his last bout, where he shut down the Russian lightweight to earn a lopsided decision victory. Unfortunately, Prazares has been out for nearly a year and coming back against a hungry, dynamic competitor like Lee could give him problems. Lee's ability to mix up his attacks whether on the feet or on the ground should give him the edge to get a victory on Saturday night.
Prediction: Kevin Lee by unanimous decision
RAY BORG vs. CHRIS KELADES
Borg has to be considered one of the top up-and-coming prospects at 125 pounds, but Kelades is no slouch after making quite the splash in his Octagon debut.
Kelades stepped in to face Irish submission specialist Paddy Holohan and needless to say the odds were against him. Kelades didn't back down one bit and ended up handing Holohan his first professional loss. The question then becomes: Can he do it twice in a row?
Borg has proven to be an impossibly tough matchup for anyone in the flyweight division. He's got a powerful takedown and a great Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu game at his disposal as well. What may help Borg the most in this fight with Kelades is his constant pressure and movement. Borg never slows down from the opening bell to the finish of the fight, and if he can keep up that pace over three rounds he'll leave Colorado a winner
Prediction: Ray Borg by unanimous decision
ZACH MAKOVSKY vs. TIM ELLIOTT
A rare treat on the preliminary card as Makovsky (ranked No. 10 in the world) takes on Tim Elliott (ranked No. 11) in a flyweight matchup between two fighters both in desperate need of a win.
Makovsky came storming out of the gate once he joined the UFC, but Brazilian Jussier Formiga shut him down in his last fight, likely pushing him out of the flyweight title race for the immediate future. Meanwhile, Elliott was considered a top prospect at 125 pounds, but back-to-back losses pushed him out of the top 10 and a third loss could see him drop even further.
Stylistically this fight seems to favor Makovsky, if he can get Elliott to the ground and display a strong, vibrant attack from the top. Makovsky has great mat control, but he has to stay active or risk being stood up against a fighter in Elliott, who is one of the bigger, stronger fighters at 125 pounds.
Still, the wrestling of Makovsky should trump Elliott as long as he doesn't suddenly abandon his ground game in favor of a standup war.
Prediction: Zach Makovsky by unanimous decision
