Predictions for every fight on the UFC 204 main card
Middleweight champion Michael Bisping makes his first title defense in front of a hometown crowd this Saturday when he takes Dan Henderson in the main event of UFC 204.
Henderson owns a brutal knockout win over Bisping at UFC 100 and the Brit would love nothing more than to avenge that loss and get his fifth straight win along the way.
Let take a closer look at how this fight might play out, and the rest of the exciting fights on the UFC 204 main card.
Michael Bisping has improved a lot since his first matchup with Dan Henderson, where he was left unconscious on the mat after one of Hendo’s deadly overhand rights. He’s a much smarter fighter and his boxing is as technically sound as it’s ever been thanks in part to his work with famed striking coach Jason Parillo. Aside from his first-round finish of Luke Rockhold, Bisping has landed over 75 significant strikes in his last five wins, including 108 against former champ Anderson Silva.
Bisping will need to use his footwork to avoid the ever-shuffling Henderson and any close-quarters fire fights. Henderson, despite being 46 years old, still has the power to KO anyone in the middleweight division, so he’s definitely get a puncher’s chance here. But other than that, it should be a relatively easy night for “The Count.”
Prediction: Michael Bisping by third-round knockout
Fourth-ranked middleweight Vitor Belfort takes the Octagon against ninth-ranked Gegard Mousasi as one of the biggest underdog on the entire card, according to oddsmakers. It’s weird for a guy with 22 finishes in 25 career wins to be such a longshot, but judging by his last three fights, we aren’t seeing the same Belfort that won 10 of 12 fights between 2007 and 2013.
Belfort still starts fast, as evidenced by his title fight against Chris Weidman in 2015, when he almost put the then-champion away with a barrage of punches, but he’s lost a bit of the power that made him on of the most dangerous fighters in the world.
Mousasi is a smooth, rangy striker who should be able to keep Belfort at a distance with a stiff jab and good footwork. He’s done a great job of defending himself in his UFC career, absorbing just 1.35 strikes per minute, and he should prepared to do so in order to survive the early onslaught that is undoubtedly coming from Mousasi. As long as he doesn’t get caught, I see Mousasi walking away victorious.
Prediction: Gegard Mousasi by decision
Saint Preux versus Manuwa has all the makings of a 'Fight of the Night' brawl. Saint Preux, a former University of Tennessee football player, is one of the premiere athletes on the UFC roster and he steps into the Octagon with five finishes in his seven UFC wins. Saint Preux is a southpaw with legit power in his hands, but every ounce of that power will be matched, if not surpassed by his opponent Jimi Manuwa.
Manuwa has finished all but one of his wins inside the UFC, thanks in part to his accurate striking and high volume of punches thrown.
If Saint Preux wants to walk away with a win, he’ll need to utilize his wrestling to control the action. Of course, he’ll want to stand-and-trade and Manuwa, but doing that for 15 minutes straight isn’t the best idea.
Prediction: Ovince Saint Preux by decision
Stefan Struve has all the talent to be a top contender in the heavyweight division, but injuries and losses to top competition have kept him on the outside of the division’s top five.
Struve stands at a ridiculous 6’11, 11 inches taller than his opponent and is an exceptional striker thanks to his kickboxing roots. “Skyscraper” is also pretty slick on the ground, with nearly half of his UFC wins coming by way of submission.
Omielanczuk, winner of three straight, is facing a serious jump in competition this time around and would be would be well-served putting Struve on his butt and forcing him to work off his back. But odds are, he’ll want to test his Muay Thai against Struve’s.
Prediction: Stefan Struve by second-round submission
Mirsad Bektic was originally slated to take on fellow prospect Arnold Allen at UFC 204, but for the third straight time in Bektic’s UFC career, his opponent withdrew due to injury.
Bektic will now face Russell Doane, who is admirable for stepping in on just five days’ notice, but with a 0-3 record over the last two years, the odds aren’t in his favor. And not just figuratively, literally as well considering some sports books have Doane as much as a +500 underdog.
Bektic should take care of business here.
Prediction: Mirsad Bektic by first-round knockout
