Maria Sharapova was once the young "it" girl of the WTA Tour. Caroline Wozniacki is that player now.
Whoever wins their fourth-round confrontation on Monday afternoon will be the favorite to win the U.S. Open, and regardless of what they said before the match, whoever loses will be devastated.
"It's the most intriguing match of the tournament so far," Tennis Channel analyst Tracy Austin said. "We are going to find out how far back Maria has really come back and how far up Wozniacki has really risen. Whoever loses the match will be extremely disappointed."
That's because this is the defining tournament for both of them for the rest of the year. Three-time Grand Slam champion Sharapova has played well this summer but has not hit her top level, taking tough losses to Justine Henin and Serena Williams at the French Open and Wimbledon and also falling in three finals to Na Li (Birmingham), Victoria Azarenka (Stanford) and Kim Clijsters (Cincinnati).
She still sees herself as a top-shelf player, despite her No. 14 seed, and does not want to go through another season without winning a major. Her last one came in January 2008 at the Austrailian Open, nine months before she underwent the shoulder surgery that nearly ended her career. If Sharapova left the U.S. Open not having reached a Grand Slam quarterfinal this year, she'd be less than pleased. Her eyes are clearly on the big prize.
"Going into a tournament, if you think that anyone else is going to win but you, you've got some serious problems," she said. "You shouldn't enter it."
Sharapova has a much more impressive resume that Wozniacki overall, but the 20-year-old has been on a tear during the summer hard-court season, winning 19 out of her past 20 matches, including titles in Copenhagen, Montreal and New Haven. But despite her improved fitness, serve and forehand, her resume at the majors has been less than stellar.
Yes, Wozniacki reached the final U.S. Open final last year and played heady, composed tennis to get there. But her only victory over a notable player was when she gutted out a win in the third-set tiebreaker to defeat 2004 champion Svetlana Kuznetsova in the fourth round. She has had a below average 2010 at the Slams, losing in the fourth round of the Aussie Open to Na Li, being diced up by Francesca Schiavone in the French Open quarters and then being bullied in the fourth round of Wimbledon by Petra Kvitova.
Without question, she had not fully recovered from an ankle injury at the French and Wimbledon, but she still underperformed. If she wants to show she is deserving of a top seed at the U.S. Open and possibly the No. 1 ranking, she has to beat the in-form Sharapova.
Wozniacki may not believe it's a match that will help characterize her year, but it will. If she wins, she'll be the favorite to move on to the final and will gain tremendous confidence from having taken down one of the world's most mentally tough players. Her national press believes she wants to own a scalp the size of Sharapova's, but the congenial daughter of a notable soccer player isn't into trash-talking.
"It would be a great victory," she said. "But when I go out there, I really don't think too much who is on the other side. I just want to do what I'm supposed to do out there on court, and I want to win. I feel like I'm playing well, so hopefully I can just keep my roll."
Austin was impressed by Wozniacki's play in Montreal, saying she looks like she has taken a leap forward mentally and physically. The book on Wozniacki has been that when in trouble, it's best to go to her forehand because she has a hard time generating power off that wing. But Kuznetsova says it's not easy to poke at that side anymore and compared her to Jelena Jankovic when she took over the No. 1 ranking: fleet, super secure from the baseline, able to change the pace and do what's necessary to strategically pull off a win.
Austin also says Wozniacki has matured to the point where she is not going to fear Sharapova's onslaught and actually desires to go pigtail to ponytail against the fierce Russian.
"It's apparent that Wozniacki wants it and believes in herself, but there's such a small margin between them," she said. "She realizes that this is a huge opportunity for her to win the U.S. Open and knows that the expectations have changed. I think she can handle it, but Maria wants it just as much."
The keys to the match are clear: Sharapova has to serve huge, keep her double faults to a minimum, return aggressively and to the corners and put together huge shot combinations that leave the Dane out of breath and guessing. But as Sharapova said, she can't be wild. She has to be "aggressively patient."
Wozniacki must extend the rallies as long as possible, stretch Sharapova out, serve at a high percentage and make sure not to give away control of the center of the court. She has become the tour's new darling and has a chance to take over the No. 1 ranking from Serena Williams if she wins the tournament. If she fails to beat Sharapova and eventually gains the top spot later this fall, no one is going to take her reign seriously if she underperforms at the Slams.
Wozniacki is going to have to want it very bad and show that she knows how to close, just like Sharapova did when she was 17 and knocked off Serena to win Wimbledon.
"I'm never giving up," Wozniacki said. "I fight for every point. I think players out there, they see that, too."
