Roger Federer isn't exactly quietly weaving his way through the U.S. Open draw, but given that he hasn't had to face a notable veteran or a highly touted youngster yet, he has been able to put his hard hat on and go to work without much fanfare.
But that will end Monday, when the great Swiss, who is never shy in discussing his greatness, will have to play Roland Garros semifinalist Jurgen Melzer in what could be a very dicey affair in the fourth round. That could be followed by a revenge contest against Swede Robin Soderling, who knocked him out of the French Open, a possible semifinal meeting with No. 3 Novak Djokovic or the supermotivated American Mardy Fish, and then, if he skates through all those matches, another tango with Britain's Andy Murray at a hard-court major or, if the tennis stars are properly aligning, a first-time U.S. Open matchup with his primary rival, Rafael Nadal.
That's a long way off, but for both men, the other is always a topic of conversation. That's what happens when you have been mostly ruling the roost for the past seven years and combining for 24 Grand Slam titles. Think about that: Federer and Nadal have combined to win six years of major crowns in just seven calendar years.
So, for many folks, though both are a dozen or so hours of hard-core match play away from facing each other, it's this rivalry that matters most. In fact, to some, it's the only matchup in men's tennis that really matters. Whether Nadal will go down in history as a better player than Federer is very debatable, as it's hard to say how the 24-year-old's body will hold up. Federer's has held up just fine, as has his high opinion of his own accomplishments, which is why he thinks his overall record at the majors stands above Nadal's.
Federer owns five U.S. Open titles, six Wimbledon crowns, four Aussie Opens and a lone title at the French Open. Nadal owns five French Open crowns, two Wimbledon titles, one Australian Open and zero U.S. Opens. The Spaniard's inability to go around the block yet is a major mark against him when he's compared with Federer, even though his 14-7 head-to-head record against the Swiss stands in his favor.
“I won the other three Grand Slams rather quickly, like he did," Federer said after he ran into the fourth round with a 6-4, 6-3, 6-3 victory over Paul-Henri Mathieu of France. "The only difference so far is that I lost two (French Open) finals before, plus a semifinal, whereas he's never been in a final here. …
“Clearly, he has a chance because he's young enough. Having so many French Open titles to his name, let alone at his age, is an amazing accomplishment. Then again, obviously, I guess he would need to win the U.S. Open to put himself there. He's won the Olympics, done some amazing things. So he'll have a shot at it, I'm sure."
But Federer cautioned it's way too early to start thinking about Rafa, whom he has faced only once this year. Melzer, the 13th seed, could be a tough ticket, even though Federer took him out at Wimbledon. The Austrian left-hander belted Juan Carlos Ferrero, 7-5, 6-3, 6-1, and if he doesn't grow frustrated early as he did at Wimbledon, he could hit through the Swiss if Federer starts slowly.
But that prospect is unlikely, and even at age 29, Federer is still the favorite in his half. Soderling looked quite competent in dispatching Thiemo de Bakker, 6-2, 6-3, 6-3, but he's a question mark on outdoor hard courts. While Soderling will be the favorite in his fourth-round match against Spain's Albert Montanes, he has only won one of 12 sets against Federer on outdoor hard courts, which cannot give him confidence going into their potential clash.
Perhaps there are no more confident players on the bottom half of the draw than Fish, who survived Arnaud Clement, 4-6, 6-3, 6-4, 1-6, 6-3, on an extremely windy day. The American, who won two titles earlier this summer and pushed Federer in the Cincinnati final, has a terrific chance to reach his first Grand Slam semifinal.
He'll have to face Djokovic, who took down Fish's friend, James Blake, 6-1, 7-6 (4), 6-3, but it's not as if Djokovic has been tearing it up on hard courts this summer. He can be had if Fish can impose a consistent, aggressive attack and a level superior to what he showed against Clement. But, as Federer said, while Fish has done a great job on improving his fitness, he had to show that all the parts of his game can come together on the big stage.
“This is what it's about for him,” Federer said. “This is where it's really going to pay off for him, not in Washington or something.”
Though Fish may be lighter, faster and prepared to go to the mat to win matches, he's not a completely different player than he was few years back, just a bit more refined. Djokovic will take a measure of confidence into the matchup, as he's 4-0 against Fish, having taken him out early at the 2006 U.S. Open, owning two wins over him on similar but slower hard courts at Indian Wells and besting him at Wimbledon in 2009. Fish has always played him tough, but he has lost faith at key moments.
“He's playing maybe his best tennis at this moment,” Djokovic said. “He's moving really well. He's serving as good as he served always. He has a lot of talent. He's recognizing the moment, coming to the net. He has a lot of variety in the game. I guess I have to be on the top of my game to be able to win.”
