Outside of Andy Roddick's implosion against Yen-Hsun Lu, Wimbledon could not have asked for seven more capable players to contest the quarterfinals on Wednesday, and while the three biggest names — Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray — will all be favored in their matches, all are vulnerable to upsets.
After starting the tournament in shaky fashion, defending champion Federer has righted his ship in the last two rounds and took apart the threatening Jurgen Melzer in the fourth round. But his next test will be much more severe, when he confronts the big-hitting Tomas Berdych, who scored his first win over the Swiss in six years a few months ago in Miami. After reaching the Miami final, the Roland Garros semis and looking in fine form in his first four matches at Wimbledon, Berdych has a terrific shot at the upset, if he holds himself together mentally.
The Czech had Federer right where he wanted him at the 2009 Australian Open, up two sets to love and 3-1 in the third set tiebreaker, but then he grew nervous, committed a couple horrendous unforced errors and went down 4-6, 6-7 (4), 6-4, 6-4, 6-2.
Given a smidgeon of an opening in a five-set match, Federer usually responds, especially at Wimbledon, where he has lost just one time since winning the first of his six titles in 2003, and that was to his primary rival, Nadal, not to a guy who has never reached a Slam final.
Berdych has the serve and big enough ground strokes to hurt the Swiss, but one of the reasons why he's 2-8 against him is because Federer is much quicker, can draw him off the court and exploit his lack of speed. The No. 12 seed must take off the gloves and control the center of the court, otherwise Federer will whiz right past him.
“With Roger, you have to be always 100% ready,” Berdych said. “He's fighting until the last point.”
Nadal will face a rematch of the Roland Garros final against the big blasting Swede, Robin Soderling. Nadal not only took down Soderling in the French final, but won their only contest on the green lawns of Wimbledon in 2007, a controversial 6-4, 6-4, 6-7 (7), 4-6, 7-5 victory where Soderling taunted Nadal and the Spaniard later said that the Swede was one of the most disliked men in the locker room.
That's largely behind them, but their rivalry isn't: Nadal, who is once again contending with knee injuries, realizes that on grass, the standout counterattacking he did three weeks ago in Paris might not win him the day. While he is lightning quick on turf, Nadal is going to have to serve great, attack with his groundstrokes, return intelligently and make a few more approaches to the net.
“The match is completely different,” Nadal said. “Nothing similar to play on grass than on clay. His game is good in every surface. Probably it is even more difficult to stop him here, because the ball go faster and gonna be very difficult to return and difficult to stop him from the baseline. But I'm gonna try.”
While Soderling has become a much more reliable player at the bigger tournaments, he still has yet to make the final breakthrough at a major. He's come close, but he can have trouble scooping up low balls and it's possible to take him out of his pounding rhythm by mixing up speeds and angles. But if he serves huge, can take some effective cuts with his returns and nail some flat laser shots into Nadal's forehand, he might very well walk away the victor.
“It's gonna be an extremely tough match,” Soderling said. “He's world No. 1. We played a lot of times and had a lot of tough matches. It's a quarterfinal in a Grand Slam. But I think it's definitely easier to play him on any other surface than clay. You have to do everything well to beat him.”
Djokovic will be a substantial favorite against Lu, as Taiwan's top player likely played as well as he can in upsetting Roddick. Serbia's top player is just as fast as Roddick and should be able to hurt Lu from inside the baseline, which Roddick was unable to do. That match will be played on Court 1 along with Nadal vs. Soderling, while Federer and Britain's great hope, Murray, will highlight Centre Court play.
With the ignominious exit of the English World Cup soccer team, there is renewed pressure on Murray to stand up tall at Wimbledon. While a loss to Nadal or Federer might be deemed slightly acceptable, a defeat to the high flying Tsonga won't be. Murray owns a 2-1 edge over the Frenchman heading into the match, but they've all been played on hardcourts.
Murray may be a brilliant returner, but the Frenchman has a harder forehand and is much more comfortable attacking the cords. If Murray can serve as well as he has all tournament, hit out on his backhand and keep Tsonga off balance he'll have a great chance at victory. If he doesn't, big Joe could swarm him.
“He is at home. He will give everything. I know that,” Tsonga said. “Obviously I will be the outsider. Maybe the pressure will be on his shoulders because for me I have nothing to lose. I have everything to win in this match. I know I can beat everybody. I will try to play relaxed and be offensive and that's it.”
Given that his level and results had dropped a good deal since he reached the Aussie Open final and underperformed against Federer, Murray wasn't expected by many to make a deep run here. But he has focused on executing, and unlike so many of his countrymen who have frozen up on Centre Court, the 23-year-old played fairly well since he made his debut in 2005, reaching the second week on four out of five occasions.
The British public doesn't have the same passion for Murray that they once had for Tim Henman, but hardcore British tennis fans realize that the Scot, who has already reached two Grand Slam finals, has a bigger upside than Henman does, so expect him to get strident support against Tsonga, and possibly against Nadal and Federer later on.
“Playing at home in all sports is just a huge, huge advantage,” Murray said. “People talk a lot about the pressure and the expectation of playing at Wimbledon, but you have that home support, which ... has made a huge difference to the way that I played.”
