United States

If USMNT doesn't beat Canada, road to World Cup will be steep

Updated Sep. 5, 2021 4:02 p.m. ET

By Doug McIntyre
FOX Sports Soccer Writer

NASHVILLE — There’s this idea percolating within the U.S. men’s national team that because of the well-proven formula to qualify for a World Cup — win at home, and get at least a tie on the road — the USMNT’s Octagonal-opening scoreless draw in El Salvador doesn’t change anything heading into Sunday’s match against Canada (8 p.m. ET, FS1 and the FOX Sports App).

The Americans, the thought goes, always needed to take all three points from this next one in front of their own fans in Music City.

"I don’t think the result of Thursday night changes that at all," U.S. coach Gregg Berhalter said Saturday during his prematch news conference. "Home games in World Cup qualifying, you want to win. That goes without saying."

That’s true. But ask yourself this: During CONCACAF’s qualifying tournament four years ago, which game cost the U.S. its ticket to Russia 2018? It’s natural to point to the stunning 2-1 loss to Trinidad and Tobago’s third-stringers in the final contest. After all, a tie would have been enough to send the U.S. to its eighth consecutive World Cup.

Yet one could easily argue that the 2-0 defeat to Costa Rica in New Jersey a month earlier was the real backbreaker. Or maybe it was the 2-1 home defeat to Mexico that kicked off the final round and forewarned of the calamity ahead. Or how about the 1-1 tie in Panama — a match the USMNT were on their way to winning before the Caneleros scored a late equalizer.

Had the U.S. eked out just one more measly point from any of those games, the outcome of that final match against T&T in Couva would have been irrelevant.

The fact is that qualifying for a World Cup is a zero-sum game. The final standings don’t show where the matches were played, only which teams picked up enough points to make the cut. That’s the only thing that matters.

So, yes, there is more pressure on Berhalter’s U.S. squad going into Sunday’s contest against a dangerous Canadian side than there would’ve been had the U.S. jetted out of San Salvador with all three points and some breathing room in the bag.

That margin for error is gone. Let’s be clear: There are different levels of must-win games. In the strictest sense, Sunday’s isn’t one.

Even a loss to Alphonso Davies & Co. wouldn’t mathematically eliminate Berhalter’s team from the FIFA 2022 World Cup in Qatar. And with four extra games in this new eight-team round robin, the format is more forgiving than the 10-game slate it replaced.

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As a practical matter, though, getting the W on Sunday is imperative after the team left two points on the table in the opener — especially heading into a far stiffer road test next week in Honduras.

Canada presents a particular threat to the USMNT because of their lightning-quick counterattack. With Davies and Tajon Buchanan on the wings and an elite finisher up top in Jonathan David, Canada makes the U.S. susceptible in transition. While the four fullbacks on Berhalter’s roster (George Bello, Sergiño Dest, Antonee Robinson and DeAndre Yedlin) boast endless recovery speed, none of them is particularly stout defensively.

Veteran Tim Ream, who was excellent as a center back in El Salvador, is a stay-at-home type when he plays on the outside. But Ream isn’t quick, and he struggled to contain Davies during Canada’s 2-0 victory over the U.S. in the Nations League in 2019. Ream also turns 34 next month.

"It’s not only the fullbacks that are important," said John Brooks, who is expected to spell Ream in the middle in Tennessee. "I think the whole team has to work hard to help each other, be there for each other, to stop these guys."

The Canadians are very capable of stealing a point Sunday. Should that happen, alarm bells will start ringing on the heels of the USMNT's lackluster curtain-raiser. If last cycle’s disaster taught us anything, it’s that if you dig yourself into an early hole, it can be impossible to claw out.

This is a different American team, of course, one that has already shown remarkable resilience this summer. This squad isn't burdened by history. But the Americans are also suddenly up against it in just the second game of qualifying. They’ll have to be better to get what they want.

"Do things need to be improved? Absolutely," Berhalter said. "I think we are creating chances. I would like more chances."

Getting Christian Pulisic back on the field will help. The Chelsea winger should be available following his recovery from COVID-19, even if Berhalter wasn’t giving anything away Saturday.

"He’s made some progress. We have to see if it’s enough to actually include him in the game-day squad and play," the coach said.

But midfielder Gio Reyna looks unlikely to suit up after missing Saturday’s training, an absence U.S. Soccer didn’t immediately explain. Starting keeper Zack Steffen, who missed the El Salvador match, remains out with back spasms.

Whatever the lineup, the Americans can’t afford to come away from the first two games with anything less than four points. The message inside the group might be that nothing has changed, but the consequences of not winning certainly have.

Don’t let anyone tell you otherwise.

One of the most prominent soccer journalists in North America, Doug McIntyre has covered United States men’s and women’s national teams in more than a dozen countries, including multiple FIFA World Cups. Before joining FOX Sports, the New York City native was a staff writer for Yahoo Sports and ESPN. Follow him on Twitter @ByDougMcIntyre.