General Bheki Cele, South Africa's police commissioner, made headlines early last month when he said he hoped the U.S. team would not advance out of group play so that President Barack Obama wouldn't attend the World Cup.
"Our famous prayer is that the Americans don't make the second round," Cele said. "(That) they get eliminated and they go home."
Cele paused and quickly said, "don't print that," to which the room responded with laughter.
Behind the obvious truth of Cele's remark -- Obama's presence in South Africa would present a serious additional security challenge -- lies one of the key questions leading into the World Cup: How safe will South Africa be?
The question is a valid one, as it relates to both crime and terrorism. South Africa has one of the highest murder rates in the world -- as high as second, according to some recent reports. The Southern African region, as a whole, has the highest murder rate of any region in the world.
Statistics for other crimes tell a similar story. USA Today reported that, in Gauteng, a province that's home to 10.5 million people and World Cup host cities Johannesburg and Pretoria, there were 1,940 violent crimes reported for every 100,000 people in 2008. That's four times the number for Michigan, a place with a comparable population.
To be fair, the crime statistics must be taken in context. "What is important to understand about our high crime rate is that approximately 80 percent of our murders happen within a very specific social context, mostly between people that know one another," Johan Burger, a researcher with South Africa's Institute for Security Studies, told BBC. "Contrary to what many people think, the murder rate, while still extremely high, is down by about 44 percent since 1995."
Crime, of course, is not the only concern. Just over two weeks ago, Iraqi officials arrested an al-Qaeda suspect that they claimed was plotting a terrorist attack at the World Cup. Though officials did not release any hard evidence to support that claim, a Baghdad security spokesman maintained that the suspect, Abdullah Azam Saleh al-Qahtani, “participated in the planning of a terrorist act in South Africa during the World Cup. He was in contact with the terrorist Ayman al-Zawahiri to organize the plan hatched by al-Qaeda.”
In April, word spread online that al-Qaeda was targeting a range of teams at the World Cup, but that the USA vs. England match, scheduled for June 12, was the terrorist organization's top priority. The article also mentioned the Nigerian, Slovenian, French, German and Italian teams as targets. The source of the online posting, however, other than to label it as being from a “Jihadist magazine,” was never established. Consequently, the severity of that particular threat is difficult to gauge.
Clearly, despite the uncertainty surrounding these alleged terrorist plots, there remains great concern about terrorism at the World Cup. In fact, the U.S. State Department is cautioning Americans traveling to the World Cup about the increased possibility of terrorist activity during the event.
“Large-scale public events like the World Cup may present a wide range of attractive targets for terrorists,” the State Department noted in the travel alert it issued. “There is a heightened risk that extremist groups will conduct terrorist acts within South Africa in the near future.”
The State Department, however, said it has “no information on any specific, credible threat of attack that any individual or group is planning to coincide with the tournament.”
In response to both the increased threats and increased scrutiny on this massive event, South Africa has taken extraordinary steps to ensure that the World Cup goes off without any major incidents. The government has spent nearly $200 million on training and supplies, including $89 million on equipment such as helicopters, water cannons, patrol vehicles and body armor.
According to a South African Police Service (SAPS) spokesman, there will be 44,000 officers assigned to tournament-related duties, in addition to the more than 100,000 officers carrying out normal duties. South Africa has also been working closely with intelligence agencies in each of the other 31 countries participating in the World Cup.
When the U.S. team arrived in Johannesburg on Monday, armed special task-force members, dressed in dark blue uniforms, surrounded the South African Airways plane at the O.R. Tambo airport. Police later led sniffer dogs through the rooms of their hotel in a final security sweep before the players were allowed in.
As always, there is no certainty of safety. Neither Obama's presence, nor his absence, could assure that. For events like the World Cup in South Africa, all you can do is prepare. And the South African authorities do seem prepared.
After a recent police exercise to practice clearing demonstrators, police commissioner Cele was asked if his forces are ready.
"I am not ready for today," he replied. "I am not ready for tomorrow. I am ready for yesterday. If you wanted to start your World Cup yesterday, I would have said I am ready."
Zack Faigen is a senior news editor for FOXSports.com.
