Here is a news flash: Three men will settle the most exciting Premiership race we’ve seen in years.
But it won’t be the names that immediately spring to mind.
For sure, Wayne Rooney, Didier Drogba and Cesc Fabregas will have a huge say in the eventual destination of the title, much like Sir Alex Ferguson, Carlo Ancelotti and Arsene Wenger will have.
But when all is said and done, it will come down to who holds their nerve between players we don’t notice - unless they make the one mistake that costs a match and ultimately a season.
Those three players are the respective goalkeepers for Manchester United, Chelsea and Arsenal - Edwin Van der Sar, Petr Cech and Manuel Almunia. They will be the men on whom hopes soar or die over the next six weeks.
The first to crack judging from this weekend was Almunia, as he surely should’ve done better to keep out Kevin Phillips' 90th minute dagger at St. Andrews. Wenger may need more than a tube of crazy clue to pick up the pieces and glue them back together after that ricket.
Perhaps Wenger will send his keeper a selection of stats to repair his confidence because if there is a position that can be judged in the Premier League, it is that of the goalkeeper. The statistics are there for all to view, so let’s examine them and see if they tell a story.
According to the Actim Index of the top ten keepers in the Premier League, (the official player ratings of the league) Petr Cech is the best keeper. Almunia comes in at fifth while Van der Sar simply doesn’t feature.
Delving deeper into this campaign we can see that Cech, the youngest of the keepers at 27, has appeared in 35 matches, conceded 28 goals and kept 17 clean sheets in all competitions.
Almunia, at 34, has appeared in 32 matches, conceded 31 and kept 12 clean sheets.
Van der Sar, the grand daddy of the three at 39, has suited up in 21 matches, conceding 17 goals whilst boasting 10 clean sheets.
After looking at the teams they’ve played and the goals they’ve conceded I found it hard to get a true picture, as all three have had to play behind make-shift back lines, deal with nasty injuries, personal issues and so ultimately it will have to come down to ability and confidence.
After watching Van der Sar against Bolton, I’m convinced that he is still not only one of the best in the Premiership but also one of the best in the world. The adage that 'keepers improve with age was made for him and I thought his athleticism, especially from Fabrice Muamba’s rocket, was that of a man ten years younger.
It’s hard to imagine the Dutchman making the kind of catastrophic error that will cost United but he isn’t as durable as he once was and he can be vulnerable if both Rio Ferdinand and Nemanja Vidic are missing.
It feels like Petr Cech has seen his star rise and fall in equal measures over the last five years. There is no doubt that he should be better but it's what he’s got now that matters.
As a shot stopper based on pure reaction saves, he’s better than either Almunia or Van der Sar. The official stats back me up saying he is the best, however he seems to have developed a fatal flaw.
Set pieces have been the Achilles heel of Chelsea and often it’s because Cech does not command his penalty area with the proper authority. With John Terry not at his best and Ricardo Carvalho out he must regain that confidence. He’s got to come and claim those high balls that are the bread-and-butter of a truly top class keeper.
And so to Manuel Almunia, the much maligned Gunner who just a few short months ago was being considered as England’s number one if he’d gotten his citizenship together.
It’s not that he’s bad but do you really want to ride this guy in the winner-take-all affairs that every match now becomes.
Back in the day, David Seaman and Jens Lehmann might not have been the best but they had personality, character and confidence that inspired the players in front of them. I’ve never felt that from Almunia, even when he’s been in form.
Like Cech, he’s a fine shot stopper but his decision-making and positioning are not that of the highest level. Will he get better? I don’t think so. He is what he is, an average keeper in a league where you need brilliance on a consistent basis.
Wenger knows this and his biggest flaw as a manager was not that he didn’t replace Thierry Henry or Patrick Vieira but that he never looked for the big character in goal and that will cost them.
Next Saturday against Wolves, the Spaniard should have a quiet afternoon. That won’t be the case for Van der Sar or Cech as they meet in the showdown at Old Trafford.
Which one of these men will take their team to the promised land, I can’t predict. However, I hitched my wagon to Chelsea at the beginning of the season and can’t leave now but I’ll tell you, the Dutchman looks golden at the moment.
Until then I’ll meet you at the far post.
