Friday, July 2, 10:00 a.m. ET - Netherlands vs. Brazil at Port Elizabeth
What to watch for
Another classic.
We usually don’t make promises, but this time, we’re looking at history. Whenever Holland and Brazil meet in a World Cup match you get something special.
In 1974 Johan Neeskens and Johan Cruyff scored second half goals to carry Holland to a 2-0 victory over Brazil and into the World Cup final. That was the first of two straight final appearances for the Clockwork Orange. They lost both, helping to cement their reputation as the best team never to win it all. It also marks the last time that the Netherlands have managed to handle the Brazilians in Cup play.
In 1994 one of the best matches of that entire competition took place in Dallas, with Brazil winning 3-2 in a quarterfinal notable for two goals from Bebeto and the his famous "rocking the cradle" goal celebration.
The two met again in 1998, this time in a semifinal at Marseille. Brazil prevailed on a penalty kick shoot-out after Ronaldo and Patrick Kluivert exchanged the only goals in regulation time.
Now comes this. Is it unfair to suggest that the winner of this match will have to play its best game of the competition in order to survive? No.
Keys to the game
For the Netherlands: Keep the right spacing up front to allow Arjen Robben, Wesley Sneijder and Robin Van Persie to do what they do best. Sneijder is dangerous on the left, Robben prefers the right and Van Persie tends to work straight down the middle. They must ply their wares without getting on top of each other because the Brazilian defense will try to force the action into the center, where Lucio and Juan are so effective.
For Brazil: Their challenge will be getting into a quick-passing, one touch game against a defensive midfield that is both stern and versatile. How effective will Maicon be matched head-up against Gio Van Bronckhorst? Kaka needs to have some midfield space to work in and that means he will need support from runners to pull some of the Dutch players out of the center. Robinho has to be a presence wide on the left or Brazil will wind up seeing Kaka and Luis Fabiano marked too tight.
Both teams have weaknesses that can be exploited. Maicon loves to attack, but there should be room behind him for Robben to roam. The Dutch are compact in midfield but their back four is not anywhere near as mobile as the attackers they will have to confront one-vs-one.
Prediction
Holland can win this game. But they won’t. An extra-time goal will finally decide a thriller. Brazil 3, Holland 2
Friday, July 2, 2:30 p.m. ET – Uruguay vs. Ghana at Johannesburg
What to watch for
These teams have never met so the opening 15 minutes will be crucial as each tries to establish its game.
For Ghana that means control in midfield, lots of quick challenges to regain possession when lost and attacks down the flanks utilizing the speed and touch of Andre Ayew. There could be a place for Prince Tagoe, as well, if Ghana wants to stretch Uruguay on both flanks.
There will be pressure on a Ghana defense that has performed well but relies too heavily on big saves from keeper Richard Kingson.
For Uruguay, the guy who must settle quickly is keeper Fernando Muslera — he’s just about the only question mark in a solid back-to-front aggregation. Muslera has not been particularly sharp this competition, but Uruguay has only yielded one goal and holds the ball so well in midfield that their backs have not been under pressure.
Diego Perez has been one of the break-out stars of the competition, so Ghana has to neutralize him midfield if they are to contain the attack.
Keys to the game
Ghana must bring the kind of relaxed confidence they showed against the United States. This will be tough: Uruguay is a much better opponent than the USA. So, the Africans would do well to review their game tape against Germany; there they created opportunities in that one that they did not finish. They need to learn from that, and convert the chances they have.
Uruguay must avoid playing a defensive style. It’s in their DNA: Oscar Tabarez' teams love to stay back, but they have been so much better when going forward this tournament. Also keep in mind that Uruguay have not been this deep in a World Cup since 1970: Does that mean expectations were lower so the pressure is off… or that they’re starting to feel it?
Ultimately, this may be decided in a simple fashion: if Ghana gets the ball to Asamoah Gyan where he needs it, the Africans can win. Uruguay must find Luis Suarez and Diego Forlan if they are to triumph.
Prediction
A tough, tense match that could redefine Uruguay for the modern era. They are good enough to win this game. Ghana outworked the United States but won't be able to do that this time and there is no soft underbelly to attack down the middle as they had against the Americans.
Uruguay will prevail, but it won’t be easy. Uruguay 1, Ghana 0
Saturday, July 3, 10:00 a.m. ET – Germany vs. Argentina at Cape Town
What to watch for
What a fixture!
Germany has flourished when their long-ball game succeeds. Neither Australia nor England could contain them, but Ghana blunted that aspect of the German game with a strong, ball-chasing midfield.
Argentina really has not been tested yet. The suspicion is that there is much more to come from the Lionel Messi-led attack force, especially in a match like this one when ball possession will determine the pace and style of the play.
The games-within-games should be fascinating: start with the impact that Mesut Ozil and Thomas Mueller will be able to have compared to that of Messi and Javier Mascherano in the Argentine middle. Then move up front, where Miroslav Klose and Lucas Podolski are probably a match for Carlos Tevez and Gonzalo Higuain.
There are real questions about both defenses. Argentina has needed top-level work from Gabriel Heinze in this Cup because Martin DiMichelis has been erratic. As DiMichelis plays his club football at Bayern Munich the German attackers already know about his penchant for making big mistakes.
Argentina will be happy to have a go at the German middle, too. Arne Friedrich and Per Mertesacker have been adequate, but hardly outstanding. You wonder if they will be able to handle the likes of Tevez and Messi running at them in the box.
Keys to the game
Because both defenses are fragile, there may be some give-and-take that will put pressure on both keepers. Germany's Manuel Neuer has been pretty good while Argentine Sergio Romero has not had to do very much in his country's first four wins.
It’s midfield that will decide this game. Argentina will be happy to possess, make the Germans do some chasing and use Messi as the dribbling attacker who pulls defenders toward him. Germany's Bastien Schweinsteiger was dominant against England, but he was not facing the likes of Mascherano on Sunday.
Prediction
Here we have two of the best teams in South Africa and one must go home.
If both hit their top form we could be in for a memorable match. Argentina holds a slim 8-5 edge in the series. If there is a difference here it's experience.
Messi, Tevez, Higuain & Co. have been in all kinds of big matches and that has shown in this Cup. Diego Maradona's reputation has been polished, too.
Germany's "old hands" are Klose, Podolski and Schweinsteiger, but it's Ozil and Mueller who will have to be at their best in this one. German coach Joachim Loew has always had his teams prepared for what they face.
It's perfectly balanced so, after extra time, we see Argentina 3, Germany 2
Saturday, July 3, 2:30 p.m. ET – Spain vs. Paraguay at Johannesburg
What to watch for
How long will it take Spain to lure the Paraguayans into a mistake and create the road to goal?
It's really that simple: Off the evidence of the knockout round, the Paraguayans lack the confidence to come out of their defensive shell when the threat of elimination is there. This time, however, Paraguay will not be containing one-dimensional Japan, but have to cope with the myriad of Spain's options.
Don't under-rate the South Americans, however. It may all come down to a state of mind. If they were simply so confident that they could kill the game with Japan and prevail in penalties if needed, they may see this one quite differently and take the game forward a bit more. (Ok, we’re reaching.)
If Paraguay has any attack it will need to be wide to attempt to take advantage of Sergio Ramos, who spends as much time as a forward as he does as a defender. No one has been particularly successful at exploiting Ramos, however, especially with the steady Carlos Puyol ready to cover behind.
Spain would seem to have all the weapons. They could use a first-rate performance from Fernando Torres, however, and they must try to get him involved early.
Keys to the game
Roque Santa Cruz must show up for Paraguay. None of the strikers have scored for the South Americans, but Santa Cruz' failure has been particularly noticeable.
Victor Caceres' return -- he missed the Japan game because of card accumulation — is a plus for coach Gerardo Martino's team, especially if Caceres can get involved in disrupting Spain's passing game.
Goalkeepers Justo Villar and Iker Casillas have both looked fallible at times in this Cup but it is Villar who will be under far greater pressure. He must bring his best game in order for Paraguay to stay close.
A goal from Torres would obviously be of great value to the Spanish; if he can untracked to partner the so-effective David Villa, Spain can live up to its pre-Cup billing.
Prediction
This has been a South American coming-out party and the chance exists that all of the last four will be from CONMEBOL.
Well, no.
Spain is playing better and better, Paraguay seems to have lost more than a step. They showed no self-belief against Japan, and they’re going to get slaughtered here.
Spain 3, Paraguay 0
