Handicapping Round 2 at the World Cup

Handicapping Round 2 at the World Cup

Published Jun. 25, 2010 5:50 p.m. ET

Saturday, 10:00 a.m. ET - Uruguay vs. South Korea at Port Elizabeth Stadium

What to watch for

Can the South Koreans maintain the level of organization and comfort that carried them out of the first round for the first time away from home? There were signs of the old, panic-stricken Korean defense in the last 10 minutes against Nigeria this past Tuesday, so Uruguay will try to test their opponents early.

The Uruguayans have played as expected: They are resolute in defense and dangerous whenever they can get the ball in the direction of Diego Forlan or Luis Suarez.

ADVERTISEMENT

The Koreans came apart against Argentina in an early Group B contest, not a good omen for this match, but they also were in that game for 75 minutes and were never in over their heads. If they can get enough possession to attack they will make this interesting.

Keys to the game

Uruguay must get the best from Alvaro Periera and Diego Perez in midfield, both to keep tabs on South Korean ace Park Ji-Sung and to provide the service for Forlan and Suarez.

South Korea has found a real striker in Park Chu Young and a true general in Park Ji-Sung but it is the overall quality of the side which has made the difference. Goalkeeper Jung Sung Ryong will be under pressure from the Uruguay attack and may have to be especially sharp.

Worth noting: Nobody understands how fast and tenacious South Korean players are until they are on the field against them. How quickly Uruguay adjusts to the pressure is important.

Prediction

As much as the Korean team has improved, this could be too tall a mountain. Uruguay will be compact defensively, hard to penetrate and has the potential match winners up front.

Uruguay 2, South Korea 0

Saturday, 2:30 p.m. ET - United States vs. Ghana at Royal Bafokeng Stadium

What to watch for

The USA has played the three smartest games of its life under coach Bob Bradley. No red cards, very few yellows, almost no dangerous free kicks surrendered around their own penalty. Best of all, they haven't relied on goalkeeper Tim Howard to save their bacon. Yes, Howard has been good when needed, but the midfield has been much better than expected and the back line’s flaws haven’t been thrown into stark relief.

Obviously, can this continue? Will Bradley be able to slot Oguchi Oneywu back into the center back spot? Against a tougher opponent will the lines hold?

The Africans have not scored a goal from open play but that's not for lack of chances. They need to correct that deficiency quickly to keep the continental flag aloft which means Asamoah Gyan, Prince Tagoe and Andrew Ayew need to start hitting the net instead of defenders or the opposing keeper.

Keys to the game

The USA is in the second round for one simple reason: its big stars — Michael Bradley, Clint Dempsey, and Landon Donovan. All three have scored goals in big situations. The Yanks have to continue to get Dempsey forward, which they've been able to do the last two games, but were not so successful at against England.

These teams met in Germany 2006, with unhappy memories for the Yanks. Frankly, the USA didn't play a cool, composed second half against a team they could have beat. Given that history, Ghana will probably like the match-up. They must contain Donovan to match the Americans in midfield.

Prediction

If Michael Essien were healthy this would be an even game. Without him, Ghana has lacked the hand on the rudder needed to steer through difficult waters.

This is America's time. USA 2, Ghana 0

Sunday, 10:00 a.m. ET - Germany vs. England at Free State Stadium

What to watch for

If you believe that Fabio Capello really does have all this measured properly it will be time for England to show that it really does have a midfield which can hold the ball, distribute it and provide the types of passes Wayne Rooney hasn't seen since the Manchester United season ended.

That means it's time for Frank Lampard and Steven Gerrard to prove they can play -- together or individually, it doesn't really matter -- the provider role.

Of course you know that Germany will over-respect England because of the history between the nations, and the truth is that neither has looked unbeatable in this Cup. Yes, Germany jumped on a tentative Australia, but did not impress against Serbia or Ghana.

So it's probably a case of which side shows up in any type of form: Miroslav Klose's return will put pressure on the English central defense, but Rooney and Jermain Defoe can test the German backline equally well.

Keys to the game

England has not shown the ability to maintain its focus and confidence over 90 minutes in this Cup ... and that was against decidedly lower class opposition. Bluntly, they probably cannot afford to give up a goal and expect to advance. So David James had better be good when necessary.

The Germans have been rather strange, so flowing and potent against Australia, so out of sorts since then. If Thomas Mueller and Phillip Lahm get the better of England in midfield they can link effectively with Mesut Ozil to take the game over.

Rooney must be involved early-and-often for England to stretch the Germans. Klose has to pose an aerial threat to keep England honest in the center, which would then create space for Lucas Podolski and Ozil out wide.

Prediction

Whoever wins this chess match, whether it’s Capello or Joachim Loew, is going to be celebrating.

Capello will surely design something to keep Mueller at bay, while Loew must know that exploiting England right back Glen Johnson and firing balls at the uncertain James is a way to shake English confidence.

This has not been England's Cup yet, so most will figure German Cup steadiness to prevail.

Not us. This will be Rooney's show. We can’t wait to see the backtracking in the English press.

England 3, Germany 1

Sunday, 2:30 p.m. ET - Argentina vs. Mexico at Soccer City

What to watch for

Probably the match of the weekend for pure spectacle. Lionel Messi and Argentina, the clear stars of this competition, are matched against a tough, fluid Mexico which has grown with each appearance.

Messi may not be scoring, but he has controlled every game. Gonzalo Higuain has been the main beneficiary up front while Messi's ability to hold the ball and make space has made the whole Argentina midfield sparkle.

Gio dos Santos isn't Messi -- nobody is close -- but he has played the same dominant role for Javier Aguirre's team but has gotten less support. Messi vs. dos Santos maybe is too simple, but whichever man claims the day will help determine the outcome.

Keys to the game

Argentina needs to avoid getting into a slow-paced game against Mexico, which gave them fits four years ago in one of the best matches at World Cup 2006. Aguirre will doubtless have his men concede some space, trying to keep it tight and compact down the middle. Mexico can counter quickly enough to be successful with a defense-first approach.

While dos Santos and Messi are 90-minute men, Mexico's 30 minutes from Cuauhtemoc Blanco could be vital if the contest is level at the hour. Don't expect Blanco to start as he did against Uruguay; he's much better as a change-the-game relief man.

Prediction

This is a very good Mexico team, a tribute to the emerging talent and Aguirre's ability to get his formations right, but Argentina is on course for something special in South Africa.

Maybe the players are tired of being written off by the home media, maybe they really do respond Diego Maradona, or maybe it's just because they have Messi and no one else does.

Argentina 3, Mexico 1

Monday, 10:00 a.m. ET - Netherlands vs. Slovakia at Durban Stadium

What to watch for

The Netherlands is one of the two European sides everybody figured could win this Cup, Spain, of course, being the other. Now the Orange must demonstrate that they can play under that pressure. We also hope they can add some flair to what has so-far been a low key Cup.

Wesley Sneijder has been the engine for this team, but look for Arjen Robben who made his Cup debut (and set up a game-winner) against Cameroon to share the creative load. That pair could be as good as any in this competition, but Robben's fitness remains a question. He played only the last 15 minutes Thursday.

Slovakia has been the surprise of the Cup, especially after coughing up a late goal in the opener against New Zealand that put them in qualifying jeopardy. Robert Vittek and Marek Hamsik have been consistently able to apply pressure, but this is hardly an out-and-out attacking side.

Against the Dutch expect them to sit in with five across midfield to contain the Orange, then counter with long balls for Vittek to chase.

Keys to the game

The Slovakians have to avoid the "just happy to be here" approach to this match, especially since they are facing one of the Cup's favorites. Manager Vladimir Weiss also needs to get his team going forward immediately, and whether he can or not will decide this match.

Next, Martin Skrtel has to continue to play steadily in the defense which figures to be under pressure from the start. Can Miroslav Stoch and Hamsik match the Dutch in midfield? We don’t know, but they did a number on Italy.

For the Netherlands it's as simple as making sure they get Robben settled in early. Having been able to cruise through the group stage without their most dangerous attacker, the Dutch must now integrate Robben into the formation. Watch how much play goes through him, and where he sits — he was wide right on Thursday in his short appearance. Sneijder and van Persie obviously also need to be crisp.

Slovakia figures to spend more time defending that the Dutch, so Slovak keeper Jan Mucha must be sharp.

Prediction

Is this Holland's time? We don't know if they will be a finalist, but the Dutch should handle this assignment.

Netherlands 2, Slovakia 0

Monday, 2:30 p.m. - Brazil vs. Chile at Ellis Park Stadium

What to watch for

The first all-South American match-up offers an intriguing contrast of styles: Brazil likes to play it silky, with quick passing and lots of ball control; Chile is happy defending, challenging hard in midfield and making things happen off the counter.

The real contest here may between the managers. Dunga has Brazil ticking over, but when his team has had trouble in qualifying it has come against teams like Mario Bielsa's Chile. Bielsa is happy to line up five (or even six) across the middle and challenge for possession.

There is plenty of history here, too. They last met at this stage of the World Cup in Paris back in 1998 and Brazil handed the Chileans a hammering. Brazil holds a commanding 46-12-7 edge in the long international series and has a whopping 152-55 edge in goals.

Those are just the kind of odds Bielsa seems to like tackling.

Keys to the game

Alexis Sanchez, Jean Beausejour and Mark Gonzalez do not equal -- at least in reputation -- Luis Fabiano, Kaka and Robinho, but the crucial match-up in this one is which attack has the best day. You expect Kaka & Co. to produce; you hope that Sanchez, et. al. will manage something at the other end.

Both defenses are sound and both teams can attack out of the back. Containing mercurial Brazilian right back Maicon will be biggest challenge for the Chileans who may well have to a delegate a midfielder strictly to that task. Chile, sadly has a bunch of guys suspended: They’ll miss Marco Estrada, Gary Medel and Waldo Ponce largely due to lousy refereeing.

Prediction

Bielsa has worked something of a miracle, battling against the entrenched powers of Chilean football to craft his own side in a country where everybody has an opinion about who ought to be on the field. Dunga has faced the same problem in Brazil but he has stuck to his guns against a generally hostile, always-demanding Brazilian media.

Now, both men have their teams where they want them. It's kinda sad that they meet now. One very good side will exit. It will be the Andeans.

Brazil 2, Chile 0

Tuesday, 2:30 p.m. ET - Paraguay vs. Japan at Ellis Park Stadium

What to watch for

This is a really good South American side. Interestingly, they arrived in South Africa without the pressure that surrounds Argentina and Brazil, and having proved they are just as good as either of its more famous neighbors during qualifying. Their performance to date has been precise, measured and methodical. Coach Gerardo Martino -- an Argentine -- has laid down a defense-first mentality, but not at the expense of shutting down the game.

Nelson Valdez and Lucas Barrios have been effective up front, and Valdez has been especially dangerous with his runs down the left flank. The absence of star striker Salvador Cabanas, who suffered a gunshot wound to head in Mexico City in January and is still recovering, has left a gap in the middle, but the Paraguayans have found solutions even so.

At the risk of repeating ourselves, let’s allow that this also is a really good Asian side, one which handled high pressure in the match against Denmark and may finally be on course to accomplish something special. Don't underestimate the heat coach Takeshi Okada and his players were under when they knew regional rival South Korea was already in the last 16 before their own showdown match against the Danes.

Keisuke Honda is the main reason this is a different Japan. He is their answer to South Korea's Park Ji-Sung, a seasoned European-based professional who can both score and create. The defense has been decent if not exactly air-tight and there are enough support runners for Honda so that defenses can't just shut him off.

Keys to the game

No one has been able to break down the Paraguay defense in this Cup, and the only goal they conceded was due to a mistake by keeper Justo Villar against Italy. Assign that one to opening day nerves — Villar has been solid since.

The midfield is tight and Paraguay can play a ball-control game with the best of them. They may miss Victor Caceres (suspended, two yellow cards), however, and will have to adjust somewhat for his absence. Valdez has to be more precise with his crosses and you'd suspect that more support from the back will be necessary to force goals.

This is the game when Eiji Kawashima will have to come up big for Japan because you expect the Paraguayans to fire at him from all angles. Watch for pressure on the Japanese defenders at corners and free kicks, too.

Honda is as good as anyone in the Paraguayan lineup and will need to closely watched. The Paraguayans also need to avoid their sometimes-pattern of fouling inside their own 35 because we have seen that the Japanese can make teams pay for those kinds of mistakes. Just ask Denmark.

Prediction

Paraguay has been the most patient team we've seen in South Africa, supremely confident and seemingly never under pressure in close quarters. They will not open the game or take chances unless forced to.

Japan will not close the contest up, but they also don't figure to take a reckless approach. So, here's a game that seems destined for extra time, maybe even penalties.

Paraguay 1, Japan 1 — with Villar making the difference in the shoot-out as South America marches on.

Tuesday, 2:30 p.m. - Spain vs. Portugal at Cape Town

What to watch for

Cristiano Ronaldo vs. Sergio Ramos? Andres Iniesta vs. Deco (if he's not still hurt)? Portugal's criss-crossing, front-running game against the Spanish pass-and-run?

There's a whole bunch of games-within-the-game in this matchup that arguably make this game the marquee event of the knockout round. Sorry, Germany-England, Argentina-Mexico and Americans-anyone, your contests simply don't match up with this one pairing, having as it does, two of the sweetest sides in Europe.

Now here's the problem: We said something like this in 2006 when Holland lined up against Portugal. We got the worst match of that World Cup. Russian referee Valentin Ivanov lost control, and two teams loaded with talent spent the entire game belting each other. What should have been a football classic disappeared.

We bring this up because these are rivals with short fuses and the referee will matter. Please, FIFA, spare us one of your "emerging nations" men and hand the whistle to an experienced hand.

Keys to the game

Can Portugal get enough of the ball to put pressure on a wobbly Spanish defense? That will depend on the Ports’ midfield outworking and out-running Spain, and that's not easy.

Can Spain somehow get something out of Fernando Torres? Their best forward has been so classically out of form so far that his hang-dog looks as he trudges off the field merely reflect the lack of quality he's produced on it. This is the game Spain will need him to wake up, shake off the injury woes and get a smile back on his face.

Both teams must avoid conceding free kicks near their penalty area. Ronaldo is a master, but hardly better than any one of Spain's choices in similar spots.

Prediction

Spain has been below par in this Cup, Portugal perhaps a little better than expected. Both of these teams have fragile pysches so the first goal will be crucial.

Spain will get it and prevail. Spain 1, Portugal 0

share