The Champions League rolls on Wednesday (TV: 2PM ET on Fox Soccer and Fox Soccer Plus) with the second set of matches in the knockout round of 16. Arsenal host Barcelona in the day’s blockbuster match while unpredictable AS Roma host Ukrainian side Shakhtar Donetsk.
The remaining four pairings get started on Feb 22-23, including the first test for defending champion Inter Milan, which hosts Bayern Munich.
The marquee Wednesday match is unquestionably at the Emirates where the top team in Spanish - and perhaps global club football - will play England’s number two. On paper it's one of the pairings of the round. Both sides play attacking, possession-oriented football that prizes smarts over physical prowess. Both have influential midfielders and deadly strikers, and both can switch off on defense because of their overwhelming offensive superiority.
But one team is expected to dominate the tie, and it isn’t the Londoners.
In every category, Barcelona looks to have the edge. They attempt and complete more passes than any team on the planet; score more goals and concede fewer; and happen to have La Liga’s golden boot leader in Lionel Messi, a man who has racked up 40 goals in all play this year. Pep Guardiola is the consensus manager of the year, an easy nod given that Barcelona have only lost one game in league play and none in Europe. The closest thing to a misfire might be their 1-1 road draw with Rubin Kazan last September and they've also reached another Spanish Cup final as they bid for a triple crown in 2011.
Further, Barcelona’s recent form has been record-setting. Until this past weekend when they were held to a 1-1 draw by Sporting Gijon, the Catalans had run up an unprecented 16-straight wins in La Liga play. Powered by Andres Iniesta, Xavi and Messi, Barcelona literally have run rings around their opponents. Their closest challenger this season is Real Madrid, who are a telling five points back in the standings. When those two met earlier this year, Barca put on a master class that left Jose Mourinho staring at the wrong end of a 5-0 scoreline. And we haven’t even mentioned David Villa.
Barcelona have also dominated the Gunners in recent years: they memorably defeated Arsenal in Paris in the 2006 Champions League final when goalkeeper Jens Lehmann was ejected in the 18th minute; they also whipped Arsenal in last year’s quarterfinals, dealing the Gunners a 4-1 thrashing at Camp Nou to take the two-legged tie 6-3.
Arsenal, on the other hand, remains the same team they’ve been for the past five seasons: a perpetually young side that is also perpetually a work in progress. Manager Arsene Wenger’s team has glaring liabilities in the back that he inexplicably has declined to address in the most recent transfer window. Currently he must rely on a third-string 'keeper (Wojciech Szczesny), who operates behind an erratic, often completely ineffective central defense. With Thomas Vermaelen a long-term absentee, Johan Djourou a confirmed second-stringer, and Sebastien Squillaci and Laurent Koscielny too-often outright liabilities, Arsenal have been vulnerable on set-pieces and counters all season. This was illustrated in spectacular fashion a fortnight ago when Newcastle completed an astonishing four-goal comeback to draw with the Gunners 4-4.
Arsenal did get a late Champions League boost with the news that Samir Nasri passed a fitness test and could play against Barcelona. The French midfielder has been far and away Arsenal’s best player this season but he has missed almost three weeks since he did his hamstring during Arsenal’s FA Cup match against Huddersfield. But, if Nasri cannot make his return, the heavy lifting will fall to Cesc Fabregas, the emotional heart of the side this season, the swift Theo Walcott out wide, and blistering striker Robin van Persie.
Missing for the Gunners will be Vermalen, Abou Diaby and the suspended Bacary Sagna. Barcelona will be missing only Carlos Puyol due to a knee injury.
Ukrainian leaders Shakthar may be catching Roma at the right time: the Italians were hammered on the weekend by Napoli, following on a 5-3 loss the week before at Inter. Roma’s domestic title dreams are over, and the turmoil doesn’t stop there as the club is currently rumored to be being acquired by an American businessman with ties to the Boston Red Sox.
Roma’s problems run fairly deep: They are getting little or nothing from Francesco Totti this season, and rely heavily on Marco Borriello to carry the load. The good news is that in Europe, he’s been a stud, with four goals in six games. The bad news is that if you shut him out, the load falls to the less effective Mirko Vucinic, who has yet to find the net in Europe this season.
Fact is, Roma too often strands its strikers up top, a symptom of a general midfield malaise. Keep in mind this is a team that lost at home to Basel, 3-1 in group-stage play. Nicolas Burdisso and Phillipe Mexes are a solid tandem in the back but Julio Sergio is facing far too many shots - and not making enough saves.
Shakhtar - a better team than people think - should be able to take advantage. Their problem is the same one that bedevils MLS teams in our continental play, however: they haven’t played a competitive match in over two months due to the long East European winter break.
Where Shakthar are dangerous is up top, with former Arsenal striker Eduardo anchoring an attack that is fed by fellow Croat Darijo Srna. Eduardo will likely be joined by Luiz Adriano in a 4-3-3 with Douglas Costa, Jadson and Willan sitting behind in support. The Brazilian imports - notwithstanding Eduardo’s registration in Croatia - were the story of the group stage, with the quintet powering them to the top of Group H.
The Ukranians will be without playmaker Fernadinho (broken leg) and stopper-back Oleksandr Kucher (knee) for this match; both men are expected to recover in time for the second leg.
Jamie Trecker is a senior writer for FoxSoccer.com covering the UEFA Champions League and the Barclay's Premier League.
