The signs are ominous for Barcelona. The cracks start in midfield where the pace is nowhere near what it was a year ago. The attack may finally be feeling the absence of David Villa, lost to injury while they were winning the FIFA World Club title last December. There is no question that the goalkeeping is not what it used to be. Victor Valdes has looked tentative and a step slow.
Does this all add up to the end of the Catalans’ reign?
Tuesday night may bring the answer. Chelsea go to Camp Nou with a 1-0 first-leg lead and every reason to believe that their revival under Roberto Di Matteo is just what they need to eliminate Barcelona.
It is the fact that the two trains appear to be traveling in opposite directions that creates the intrigue ahead of a second-leg showdown that didn’t even look possible six weeks ago.
Chelsea was reeling in March, its veteran players in open revolt against a coach who didn't seem to trust them. Meanwhile, Barcelona was marching to another Spanish Cup final and chopping into Real Madrid's commanding Spanish league lead.
Sure, Di Matteo guided his Blues to an unlikely win over Napoli and a spot in the draw. Even the most charitable considered it a one-off, a bit of heroism from the much-maligned “old guard.” The fact is that when that draw was made for the Champions League final rounds most people breathed a sigh of relief because Barca and Real were kept apart. A “dream final” in Munich seemed assured. And Chelsea? There were doubts they’d beat Benfica.
Six remarkable weeks later, Chelsea stands in the way of Barcelona’s dream and there is much to recommend the Blues’ chances. They gained their one-goal advantage despite playing a defense-first opening leg at Stamford Bridge, and their talisman, Didier Drogba, showed himself to be a man for the biggest of occasions. OK, Chelsea had some good luck and Petr Cech had to be at his best, but the Blues cancelled out Lionel Messi and kept the Barcelona passing game from carving them apart. No one thought that possible. But Chelsea have made a habit of defying expectations.
Messi, it must be said, is in the midst of a slump, something so unfamiliar that one dares not to suggest it. He made no impression on Saturday in the 2-1 loss at home to Real Madrid in the latest El Clasico, and although he worked hard enough at Stamford Bridge he was not the frightening force we've come to expect. He is still the greatest player in the game, but he's not performing to the superhuman level we’ve come to expect and love.
What’s happened? Well, both Chelsea and Real Madrid deployed the same tactics to turn off the Barcelona attack. They packed the middle of the area with four players, preventing the quick 1-2 passes which Messi, Andres Iniesta and Xavi thrive on. Both teams allowed Pep Guardiola's bunch to beat ’em out wide, but took the center away. The gamble worked and Messi has been stifled — so far.
Now, had Alexis Sanchez buried his early chance at the Bridge, Barcelona probably wouldn't be facing this challenge. Had Tello not made a complete hash of a couple of openings in El Clasico, Barcelona might still be in the Spanish title race. But neither of these players produced under pressure — and that can only ratchet up Barcelona’s worries in this second leg.
Chelsea has one other huge thing going for them: an away goal in the Camp Nou would force Barcelona to score three to win on aggregate, and Chelsea is very good at scoring away from home. The fact that Drogba is apparently carrying a knock may inhibit their game plan, but they have been effective at playing with just one man up top and while it might seem the ultimate folly, Fernando Torres would have a thing or two to prove if he draws that assignment.
What Di Matteo undoubtedly has done is to instill self-belief that was completely missing when Chelsea looked like they were about to fall off the planet. They are in the FA Cup final and must think a trip to Munich is a reasonable expectation. John Terry has come back to his old self in central defense, Frank Lampard suddenly looks younger and Drogba has gotten just enough help to remain one of the most dangerous strikers in the game.
Barcelona, in unusually stark contrast, no longer looks unbeatable. Once the greatest club side on the planet, they look very human. And that is a comedown that can weigh very heavily on a side not used to being pushed to the brink.
Expect Chelsea to make Daniel Alves and whoever occupies the left wing do the heavy lifting — at least until Guardiola and his think tank figure out how to get the shackles off Messi. Don’t expect Barcelona to roll over at the spacious and always threatening Camp Nou. And if the Catalans score an early goal — heck, all bets are off.
But think about this: should the Blues pull this one off, it will go down as one of the sport’s greatest comeback tales. Chelsea was a team left for dead just two months ago. The funny thing is that all season long in Europe — from APOEL and Basel in the Champions League; to Sporting, Athletic and AZ in the Europa League — fortune has been smiling on the underdogs. And Chelsea, weird as it sounds, have been the underdogs this year.
Can the Blues continue the run? Don’t bet against it.
