As the Bundesliga chiefs of staff head into their winter meetings three things seem abundantly clear:
1. The only management that doesn't have to address immediate concerns is at Bayern Munich, where attention should shift fairly soon from retaining the Bundesliga title to reclaiming the UEFA Champions League trophy.
2. Those clubs hoping to land in Europe next season face a major battle for top four and top six places, a fight that probably will not be settled until the final day of the season. At the break there are certainly eight teams thinking they can be in Europe next term and probably six of them have legitimate top three ambitions.
3. The fight at the bottom may be the most intriguing, unpredictable part of the second half of the campaign. When play resumes on Jan. 30, there will be nine teams separated by a mere four points, which means that 10th-placed Paderborn is hardly much safer that last-place Borussia Dortmund.
There certainly is little question that unbeaten Bayern, carrying a 21-match unbeaten run stretching back to last season and sporting an 11-point lead over VfL Wolfsburg, has been the class of the season. Despite suffering some major injuries to key defensive personnel -- Javi Martinez, Philipp Lahm and Bastian Schweinsteiger all missed the entire first half or significant parts of it -- Josep Guardiola has produced a side that has conceded only four goals while scoring 41. Both are first-half Bundesliga records, for the fewest goals conceded and for the biggest (plus 37) goal difference at the break.
More remarkable, perhaps, is the way that Guardiola has utilized his squad depth to produce a side that has escaped the post-World Cup malaise which affects so many others. When you have Arjen Robben available, there does not seem to anything to worry about.
No, the attack has not had to rely on Mario Gotze and Thomas Muller or even import Robert Lewandowski: but it has not exactly been goals-by-committee. Robben continues to play like the best right-side attacker in the world.
Some of the credit for that standout defense must go to Manuel Neuer, in line to capture the FIFA Balon d'Or if enough voters overlook the fact that he does not score goals. Instead, he makes the one or two high-quality saves needed every time out and plays with such aplomb with the ball at his feet that he is universally regarded as the "sweeper-keeper", allowing the Bayern midfield and wide players to press forward without fear that there will be holes at the back. And credit Guardiola with one of the two best acquisitions of the season: Xabi Alonso stepped into the side so efficiently that it is hard to remember that Toni Kroos once was the midfield rock.
Can anyone stop Bayern? Not in the Bundesliga it seems. The more interesting question seems to be what will happen if Guardiola gets another chance to take on Real Madrid with a European title the reward.
One reason the fight for European places could go to the wire is the presence of the season's other major acquisition: Kevin De Bruyne.
It has been De Bruyne's presence in Wolfsburg which has transformed the Wolves from a pretty good side into one that has real ambition. They are six points clear of third-place Bayer Leverkusen at the break, largely because De Bruyne is currently the best playmaker in the league. Whether they can hold onto that advantage and secure an automatic Champions League place next season seems to be a question of how far their Europa League run continues and whether their main challengers for a top three finish will also be involved long-term in Europe.
Wolfsburg has gotten consistent goalkeeping from Diego Benaglio, the Swiss international who is now concentrating simply on club football, but there remain questions about the overall defensive depth. Ivan Perisic has developed into a foil for De Bruyne, while Ivica Olic and Bas Dost seem set to share the front-running duties when action resumes. If Junior Malanda, he of that infamous opening-day miss at Bayern, ever starts to contribute consistently then the Wolfsburg wagon might truly be unstoppable in the race for Europe.
But the Wolves don't have an easy path when play resumes. They must face Bayern, Eintracht Frankfurt, Hoffenheim and Leverkusen in their first four matches after the break, all teams in contention for a top six finish. And then there will be two tests against Sporting Clube in the Europa League knockout round. If Wolfsburg survives that gauntlet they will have earned it.
The real fight for guaranteed Champions League football next season would seem to be a three-way contest among Bayer Leverkusen, Borussia Moenchengladbach and Schalke 04. Sorry, Augsburg supporters, and those backing Hoffenheim, Hannover and Eintracht Frankfurt, the odds are against any of them having quite enough to get to the finish line. Leverkusen has been inconsistent to say the least, 'Gladbach may be achieving a bit above its level and Schalke obviously needs the return of a healthy Julian Draxler if they are to find the form capable of getting them home in the top four.
Adding to the question-mark over all of them is that all of them remain involved in Europe. Those demands will test everyone in February and March -- indeed, should any of the trio still be worrying about Champions League or Europa League commitments in April that could prove to be a poisoned pawn.
Then there's the mess at the bottom.
Yes, everybody knows that Borussia Dortmund lies 17th in the table over the break, kept off the bottom only because they have scored one more goal than SC Freiburg, with whom they share the 15-points rung. Yes, there is huge pressure on Jurgen Klopp and his big-name stars to turn the home season around even as there is expectation that their own Champions League form has not been an illusion. Drawn against Juventus in the first knockout round, Dortmund will fancy its chances; the problem is that their European performance has not been reflected in Bundesliga points.
The return of injured Marco Reus, Henrykh Mkhitaryan and Sokratis and perhaps the reappearance of the real Roman Weidenfeller -- whose dramatic drop in form relegated Germany's No. 2 goalkeeper to the bench -- should all buoy Dortmund when play resumes. But those additions will mean little unless Klopp can figure out how to patch up a midfield and defense whose spacing has been so erratic that opponents seem to have gotten a gift goal virtually every match.
And every day that Dortmund lies near the bottom will increase the speculation that more top players will follow Gotze and Lewandowski out the door. That type of distraction isn't needed. But what argues for a Dortmund escape is the table, itself.
While they would have been relegated had the season ended this past weekend, they are literally only two wins off 10th place. This year's newly-promoted teams, Paderborn and Cologne, occupy 10th and 11th on 19 points, and should no doubt be every bit as worried about the drop to the Zweizliga as their more prestigious colleagues. Indeed, Mainz, Hertha Berlin, HSV, VfB Stuttgart and Werder Bremen are within three-points reach of the last pair and it's obvious that none of them have shown the type of first-half form to inspire supporters. This is two seasons in a row of anxiety for never-related Hamburger SV and famous VfB Stuttgart is down there with them once again.
Although the numbers say they are in real trouble, the fact remains that Dortmund appears to be the least likely of the pack to wind up staring at the drop in May. You cannot say that with any real confidence about any of the others.
