When you hear "home-field advantage," the first thing that might pop into your mind is Game 7. Game 7 at home, the one that matters most, in your most comfortable surroundings.
Home-field advantage means much more than that. You have to get to a Game 7 first. The home-field advantage really comes in Games 1 & 2. In the case of a team like the New York Mets, that means giving the ball to a young pitcher like Jacob de Grom or Noah Syndergaard at home in their first ever postseason start.
In the American League, though, there seems to be even more at stake. After Tuesday night the Toronto Blue Jays held a 1.5-game lead over the Kansas City Royals for home-field advantage. In reality, it is a 2.5-game lead because if the teams tie, the Blue Jays win the tiebreaker (Toronto went 4-3 vs. Kansas City this year).
If the Blue Jays hold on, they will face the winner of the Wild Card Game at home, likely the Yankees, Astros or Angels. Whichever wild-card team they face, that team will likely have already used its ace. That ace likely would not return until Game 3. None of those teams are particularly deep in starting pitching, with the exception of the Astros, who might be the best of the group.
In this scenario, the Royals would face the Rangers, presumptive AL West champs. For me, the rotation advantage would favor the Rangers on paper and the bullpens are closer than you think. Of course, the games are not played on paper, and as we have seen so many times in the past, things don't always go as expected.
Home-field advantage matters in the American League. Win it and you get the wild-card winner with their ace not going until Game 3. Lose it and you get the revamped Rangers, who have gone 17-10 in September.
The Blue Jays are 17-8 this month, the Royals 10-17. Toronto has picked up eight games on the Royals, and if they win home-field advantage they may have positioned themselves to make a strong postseason run.
