When Manning closes door, a window will open -- and Chiefs must be first ones through it
KANSAS CITY, Mo. -- This day was always coming. It just might be coming a lot quicker than anybody initially thought. At some point, Peyton Manning is going to wake up, sing "To hell with this, I'm staying home" (to the tune of the Nationwide jingle, of course), and that will be ... that.
The AFC West will require a new sheriff.
And here come the Kansas City Chiefs, bridesmaids no longer, knuckles cracking.
See that mess in Denver right now? Well, you're up next, Big Red. A division turns its lonely eyes to you. Woo, woo, woo.
We're getting ahead of ourselves, of course. Manning, 38 years not young, hasn't said whether he'll return to the Broncos for an 18th NFL season. But he left it curiously and suspiciously open-ended following a second home playoff loss over the last three Januaries.
Then his coach bailed.
Or fell on the sword. Or walked away while falling on the sword. Whatever.
Now defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio is expected to do the same, with reports having him being handed the keys to the Oakland Raiders, and Godspeed there, champ.
And, just like that, John Elway's unsinkable ship is notable now for the tempo at which the rats appear to be fleeing it.
Whatever Manning's decision -- whether it's down to John Fox's replacement, his health, or some combination thereof -- if last Sunday wasn't the final bow for No. 18, it feels very, very much, at worst, like the preamble to the end.
Why hello there, Chiefs. Ready for your close-up?
The hardest thing to do in the NFL is win the big one. The next hardest is to try to put yourself in a position to contend for a Super Bowl every year. Chiefs general manager John Dorsey has managed to pull off both with the Green Bay Packers, so he's seen a system, a formula, come together. Which is good.
Of course, there, he had Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers at the wheel, and here, he does not. Less good.
But for all the occasional hiccups and injuries, Dorsey and the front office have clearly been planning for a post-Manning, rebuilding-in-Denver NFL world, too. The Andy Gang opened last fall with the third-youngest roster in the loop (average age 25.34 years) behind St. Louis (25.09) and Jacksonville (25.2), according to Philly.com's Jimmy Kempski. The Broncos were 12th (25.81), the Chargers 28th (26.64). Before the start of 2013, the Chiefs had the eighth-youngest roster (25.68), while the Broncos were 28th (26.75) and the Chargers 21st (26.28).
So while Denver has tried to build for the now around Manning and San Diego for the present around Philip Rivers, the Chiefs have been stacking pieces with an eye for 2016, '17 and beyond.
Lookin' good! Flip through our photo album of Chiefs cheerleaders.
Which makes 2015, the months to come, even more fascinating, regardless of Manning's choice. With Peyton, the Broncos are the division favorite, probably, still -- but a favorite with all sorts of asterisks and questions and conditionals attached. Over the last six weeks, for the first time since his neck fusion, Manning has actually started to show his age. The drive and zip on slants or throws in tight windows is down and, most notably, the accuracy on "touch" balls, the golden arrow in Manning's Hall of Fame quiver, has been all over the place for the better part of the past two months.
The nation sat aghast as Big No. 18 missed receiver after receiver in a playoff defeat to the Colts, but the cracks had been forming for a while now. The offense -- and, indeed, the team itself -- was never the same after a humbling, 22-7 Nov. 16 defeat in St. Louis in which Manning tossed two picks. He wasn't much better, statistically, against the Chiefs two weekends later, with Denver pulling away thanks to its high-priced defense and the running of C.J. Anderson more than anything else. And in a 37-28 loss at Cincinnati on a rainy Dec. 22, Manning was notable for being all over the place, racking up four more interceptions.
For all the uncertainty in Denver, this much is clear: for the first time since TebowMania, the Mile High City appears torn. A poll on the SB Nation site Mile High Report earlier this week asked, very simply: Do you want Peyton Manning back with the Broncos in 2015?
As of Wednesday afternoon, 8,883 voters had weighed in, and 5,125 -- 58 percent -- went with "No." Which means even if Manning wants to get back up on that particular horse again, he doesn't have to just win a Super Bowl. He's got to win a good chunk of the fan base back, too.
All of which has been tracked with great interest -- and let's be honest, schadenfreude -- here, home of the back-to-back runners-up to Manning's mini-dynasty in the AFC West. No. 18 is 6-0 all-time with Denver against the Chiefs, whose No. 1 priority still has to be shoring up the internal foundation, not peering over the fence every five minutes to check on the neighbor's garden.
And that starts where a solid foundation should -- up front. FootballOutsiders.com's final regular-season positional rankings are out, and the truth hurts: The Chiefs' offensive line ranked 28th in terms of pass protection (49 sacks allowed). Even more damning, the unit posted an adjusted sack rate of 9.4 percent -- well above the league average of 6.6, and the franchise's worst season of protection since the 2007 line (9.1 percent).
Of the AFC's Final Four (New England, Denver, Indianapolis and Baltimore), all ranked among the league's top seven in terms of lowest adjusted sack rate: The Broncos were No. 1 (3.7 percent), the Patriots second (4.4), the Ravens fourth (4.6 percent) and the Colts seventh (4.8). Whether it's Manning or Brock Osweiler or Alex Smith, it's pretty damn hard to complete passes while lying on your back.
Because while we're on the subject of finding time, it's worth noting that Smith turns 31 in May, and Jamaal Charles turns 29 next December. When the football gods do finally shut Manning's door, they're opening up a big ol' window. It's up to the Chiefs to do everything in their power to make sure they're the first ones through it.
You can follow Sean Keeler on Twitter at @SeanKeeler or email him at seanmkeeler@gmail.com.
