WhatIfSports college football Week 7 predictions: Ohio State beats Wisconsin in Madison
Each Monday, WhatIfSports.com's college football simulation engine generates predictions for every Division I FBS game for the coming week. Our highly sophisticated algorithms simulate every play of every game to produce each team's likelihood to win. Each matchup is simulated 101 times.
Week 6 in Review
It was a rough week for our simulations. Our computers went 12-6 in the AP Top 25 (66.7 percent). On the bright side, our highlighted games continue to shine. We correctly predicted Texas A&M defeating Tennessee and are now 5-1 when it comes to the Game of the Week.
Nailed It: Memphis 34 - Temple 27
On Thursday night, the Tigers rallied from a 13-0 deficit and scored 27 consecutive points against Temple. The defense and special teams both scored in Memphis' seven-point victory. We predicted Memphis to win 54.5 percent of the time, by an average score of 28.4-27.3.
Wide Right: Virginia Tech 43 - North Carolina 3
It was Mitch Trubisky's worst game of the year. He threw for only 58 yards and was picked off twice. We predicted UNC to win 66.3 percent of the time, by an average score of 30.1-26.6.
Track our 2016 performance or view our accuracy last season, when we correctly picked the winner in 80.0 percent of all games involving FBS teams.
Week 7 Top 25 vs. Top 25 Matchups
No. 2 Ohio State at No. 8 Wisconsin
For the second-ranked team in the nation, this will be their toughest test. The Buckeyes have allowed an average of 10.8 points per game (second-best in FBS), but tend to let their opponent score early enough in games to give doubt about the outcome. If the Badgers get on the board early, it might be tough for Ohio State to overcome its mistakes in Camp Randall. Wisconsin won four straight before dropping its last game to Michigan, 14-7. Since then, the Badgers had a week off. The last time they beat Ohio State was 2010, in Wisconsin. Our computers believe the Buckeyes will win their fifth straight against Wisconsin as they are victorious 65.3 percent of the time, by an average score of 27.9-23.0.
No. 1 Alabama at No. 9 Tennessee
The dream season ended for the Vols as they fell to Texas A&M 45-38 in Week 6. Junior running back Jalen Hurd missed the last game, but replacement Alvin Kamara filled in nicely. Kamara rushed for 127 yards and caught eight passes for 161 yards. The way Alabama's defense is playing, Tennessee's running back may not matter. The Tide are allowing 69.2 rushing yards per game, the best in college football. Bama's RB, Damien Harris, ran wild against the Razorbacks last week. He produced 122 yards on 13 carries (9.4 yards per rush). According to our projections, Bama prevails. Alabama wins 56.4 percent of the time, by an average score of 24.9-22.1.
No. 12 Ole Miss at No. 22 Arkansas
Ole Miss and Arkansas are two of seven SEC teams ranked in the AP Top 25. The schools have shared one common opponent thus far, both owning defeats to Alabama. Ole Miss fell to the Crimson Tide in Week 3, losing 48-43 at home. Arkansas was a more recent Alabama victim, losing 49-30 last week in Fayetteville. Ole Miss gets the edge in margin of defeat, and our simulation engine likes the Rebels too. In 101 simulations, Ole Miss won 56.4 percent of the time, by an average score of 29.0-26.7.
Week 7 Upset Pick
Stanford (+2.5) over Notre Dame
Both of these teams lost last week. Stanford was still sulking from its Week 5 loss to Washington and picked up a second consecutive L to Washington State. The Irish, meanwhile, were caught in some nasty weather as NC State scored the game's only touchdown via a blocked punt. Preseason Heisman hopeful, Christian McCaffrey, was injured in last week's contest, carrying the ball only eight times and registering 35 rushing yards. If he's out, the Cardinal might be in for a rough game. However, if McCaffrey gets back on track, it could be a long day for Notre Dame. The Irish allow 181.2 rushing yards per contest this season. When we crunched the numbers, Stanford won 55.4 percent of the time, by an average score of 28.1-27.8.
College Football Week 7 Predictions
| |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Matchup | Win % | Avg. Score | |
| Duke Blue Devils | 29.2 | 23.4 | Box Score |
| @ Louisville Cardinals | 70.8 | 30.5 | |
| North Carolina State Wolfpack | 34.7 | 23.1 | Box Score |
| @ Clemson Tigers | 65.3 | 27.9 | |
| Wake Forest Demon Deacons | 37.6 | 24.6 | Box Score |
| @ Florida State Seminoles | 62.4 | 29.2 | |
| Georgia Southern Eagles | 43.6 | 26.7 | Box Score |
| @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets | 56.4 | 28.5 | |
| North Carolina Tar Heels | 49.1 | 29.0 | Box Score |
| @ Miami (FL) Hurricanes | 50.9 | 29.4 | |
| Pittsburgh Panthers | 56.3 | 27.8 | Box Score |
| @ Virginia Cavaliers | 43.7 | 25.4 | |
| Virginia Tech Hokies | 61.4 | 29.3 | Box Score |
| @ Syracuse Orange | 38.6 | 25.6 | |
| Northwestern Wildcats | 46.9 | 23.0 | Box Score |
| @ Michigan State Spartans | 53.1 | 24.1 | |
| Illinois Fighting Illini | 47.5 | 28.8 | Box Score |
| @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 52.5 | 29.5 | |
| Minnesota Golden Gophers | 52.5 | 25.4 | Box Score |
| @ Maryland Terrapins | 47.5 | 24.2 | |
| Nebraska Cornhuskers | 60.4 | 31.4 | Box Score |
| @ Indiana Hoosiers | 39.6 | 28.4 | |
| Iowa Hawkeyes | 61.4 | 30.1 | Box Score |
| @ Purdue Boilermakers | 38.6 | 26.3 | |
| Ohio State Buckeyes | 65.3 | 27.9 | Box Score |
| @ Wisconsin Badgers | 34.7 | 23.0 | |
| Bowling Green Falcons | 35.6 | 28.3 | Box Score |
| @ Toledo Rockets | 64.4 | 33.2 | |
| Eastern Michigan Eagles | 43.6 | 31.8 | Box Score |
| @ Ohio Bobcats | 56.4 | 34.6 | |
| Central Michigan Chippewas | 52.5 | 30.2 | Box Score |
| @ Northern Illinois Huskies | 47.5 | 29.2 | |
| Ball State Cardinals | 54.5 | 30.7 | Box Score |
| @ Buffalo Bulls | 45.5 | 28.2 | |
| Kent State Golden Flashes | 56.4 | 26.6 | Box Score |
| @ Miami (OH) RedHawks | 43.6 | 25.6 | |
| Western Michigan Broncos | 60.4 | 31.0 | Box Score |
| @ Akron Zips | 39.6 | 27.4 | |
| Arizona State Sun Devils | 46.1 | 29.0 | Box Score |
| @ Colorado Buffaloes | 53.9 | 30.1 | |
| UCLA Bruins | 47.3 | 31.7 | Box Score |
| @ Washington State Cougars | 52.7 | 32.9 | |
| USC Trojans | 60.5 | 31.2 | Box Score |
| @ Arizona Wildcats | 39.5 | 28.7 | |
| Utah Utes | 70.3 | 28.0 | Box Score |
| @ Oregon State Beavers | 29.7 | 22.2 | |
| Southern Miss Golden Eagles | 33.7 | 26.5 | Box Score |
| @ LSU Tigers | 66.3 | 31.7 | |
| Missouri Tigers | 39.7 | 20.7 | Box Score |
| @ Florida Gators | 60.3 | 23.5 | |
| Vanderbilt Commodores | 42.1 | 21.7 | Box Score |
| @ Georgia Bulldogs | 57.9 | 26.5 | |
| Alabama Crimson Tide | 56.4 | 24.9 | Box Score |
| @ Tennessee Volunteers | 43.6 | 22.1 | |
| Ole Miss Rebels | 56.4 | 29.0 | Box Score |
| @ Arkansas Razorbacks | 43.6 | 26.7 | |
| Lafayette Leopards | 5.0 | 8.1 | Box Score |
| @ Army West Point Black Knights | 95.0 | 41.4 | |
| Mississippi State Bulldogs | 49.1 | 27.8 | Box Score |
| @ BYU Cougars | 50.9 | 28.0 | |
| Stanford Cardinal | 55.4 | 28.1 | Box Score |
| @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 44.6 | 27.8 | |
| Louisiana Tech Bulldogs | 72.3 | 34.8 | Box Score |
| @ Massachusetts Minutemen | 27.7 | 28.4 | |
| Kansas Jayhawks | 29.7 | 22.6 | Box Score |
| @ Baylor Bears | 70.3 | 30.5 | |
| Iowa State Cyclones | 38.6 | 23.6 | Box Score |
| @ Texas Longhorns | 61.4 | 28.8 | |
| Kansas State Wildcats | 41.6 | 24.3 | Box Score |
| @ Oklahoma Sooners | 58.4 | 27.6 | |
| West Virginia Mountaineers | 54.5 | 29.0 | Box Score |
| @ Texas Tech Red Raiders | 45.5 | 27.7 | |
| Florida Atlantic Owls | 41.6 | 25.0 | Box Score |
| @ Marshall Thundering Herd | 58.4 | 26.9 | |
| Western Kentucky Hilltoppers | 43.6 | 33.1 | Box Score |
| @ Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 56.4 | 33.8 | |
| UTSA Roadrunners | 58.4 | 31.2 | Box Score |
| @ Rice Owls | 41.6 | 27.8 | |
| FIU Golden Panthers | 60.4 | 27.7 | Box Score |
| @ Charlotte 49ers | 39.6 | 25.0 | |
| Colorado State Rams | 26.7 | 25.3 | Box Score |
| @ Boise State Broncos | 73.3 | 33.3 | |
| UNLV Rebels | 35.6 | 27.0 | Box Score |
| @ Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 64.4 | 30.4 | |
| Nevada Wolf Pack | 39.6 | 28.4 | Box Score |
| @ San Jose State Spartans | 60.4 | 30.4 | |
| Air Force Falcons | 61.4 | 29.9 | Box Score |
| @ New Mexico Lobos | 38.6 | 26.9 | |
| San Diego State Aztecs | 67.3 | 33.3 | Box Score |
| @ Fresno State Bulldogs | 32.7 | 26.5 | |
| Georgia State Panthers | 39.6 | 28.4 | Box Score |
| @ Troy Trojans | 60.4 | 31.0 | |
| Texas State Bobcats | 45.5 | 30.9 | Box Score |
| @ Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks | 54.5 | 31.9 | |
| New Mexico State Aggies | 46.1 | 32.0 | Box Score |
| @ Idaho Vandals | 53.9 | 32.9 | |
| South Alabama Jaguars | 47.5 | 27.8 | Box Score |
| @ Arkansas State Red Wolves | 52.5 | 28.4 | |
| Appalachian State Mountaineers | 67.3 | 33.5 | Box Score |
| @ Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | 32.7 | 28.0 | |
| Tulsa Golden Hurricane | 30.7 | 24.8 | Box Score |
| @ Houston Cougars | 69.3 | 32.0 | |
| Connecticut Huskies | 42.6 | 24.9 | Box Score |
| @ South Florida Bulls | 57.4 | 27.6 | |
| Temple Owls | 43.9 | 26.5 | Box Score |
| @ UCF Knights | 56.1 | 28.3 | |
| Navy Midshipmen | 59.4 | 32.1 | Box Score |
| @ East Carolina Pirates | 40.6 | 27.3 | |
| Memphis Tigers | 69.3 | 30.2 | Box Score |
| @ Tulane Green Wave | 30.7 | 22.5 |
In addition, view our Week 7 power rankings or visit our college football archive for predictions from past weeks. For more statistics, view our weekly college football predictions.
