WhatIfSports 2015 Pac-12 Football Projected Standings

BY foxsports • December 24, 2016

Which team will emerge from the pack in the competitive Pac-12? WhatIfSports.com played every game of the 2015 season 101 times to generate game-by-game predictions for each Pac-12 team, as well as projected conference standings.

All games were played using WhatIfSports' college football simulation engine, which uses its highly sophisticated algorithms to simulate every play of the game. The conference standings table displays the most likely outcome for each team, whereas the team-by-team schedules display absolute records. 

2015 Pac-12 Projected Conference Standings
South W L Overall Record
USC 7 2 9-3
Arizona State 7 2 9-3
UCLA 6 3 8-4
Arizona 5 4 8-4
Utah 4 5 6-6
Colorado 1 8 3-9
North W L Overall Record
Oregon 8 1 10-2
Stanford 6 3 8-4
Washington 3 6 5-7
California 3 6 5-7
Washington State 2 7 4-8
Oregon State 2 7 4-8

Aside from the SEC, with its usual load of preseason Top 25 teams, no conference garnered more Associated Press love than the Pac-12. With six teams – Oregon (7), USC (8), UCLA (13), Arizona State (15), Stanford (21) and Arizona (22) – ranked to start the season, the Pac-12 is receiving national recognition for its depth. By comparison, the ACC, Big 12 and Big Ten each placed three teams in the Top 25, while the SEC tops them all with eight teams.

Such talent does not come without risk, however. If one school isn’t able to separate itself from the pack, teams could easily beat up on each other in conference games and prevent the league from gaining representation in the College Football Playoff.  If Stewart Mandel’s prediction plays out, that could spell trouble for the Pac-12:

"This could be a year where the Pac-12’s brutal scheduling model could work against it. If ASU played North Texas instead of Texas A&M and Oregon played Central Michigan instead of Michigan State, I’d have them both with playoff-worthy records. As it is, I have ASU winning the first matchup, the 9-3 Ducks topping the 10-2 Sun Devils in the league title game."

Mandel’s forecast isn’t far from WhatIfSports.com’s prediction, although we envision Arizona State in a heated race with USC for the South Division. Bruce Feldman could see UCLA and Arizona in the hunt as well:

"I think any one of four teams have a good shot to win the South. The hunch here is that it'll come down to the Nov. 28 game when UCLA visits USC. The Bruins have owned the Trojans of late, but I think the Trojans -- with the more experienced QB in Cody Kessler and the more dynamic collection of receivers -- are due."

In the North, Mandel, Feldman and WhatIfSports.com all agree that Oregon will be tough to dethrone. The Ducks need to replace Marcus Mariota at quarterback, a task that will fall to Jeff Lockie or Eastern Washington transfer Vernon Adams. The QB will be surrounded by some talented playmakers, including wide receiver Byron Marshall and running back Royce Freeman.

To view a team's game-by-game predictions, select the school below:

2015 Arizona Wildcats
Week Opponent Win% Avg Score
1 UTSA Roadrunners 84.2 28.4-15.5
2 @Nevada Wolf Pack 65.3 26.3-20.8
3 Northern Arizona Lumberjacks 95.0 46.6-6.7
4 UCLA Bruins 33.7 24.1-29.1
5 @Stanford Cardinal 38.6 23.1-27.0
6 Oregon State Beavers 69.3 29.0-23.1
7 @Colorado Buffaloes 52.5 28.1-26.9
8 Washington State Cougars 63.4 28.5-24.6
9 @Washington Huskies 36.6 23.6-28.5
10 @USC Trojans 31.7 22.5-27.9
11 Utah Utes 44.6 24.4-26.8
12 @Arizona State Sun Devils 50.5 27.6-28.7
2015 Arizona State Sun Devils
Week Opponent Win% Avg Score
1 @Texas A&M Aggies 46.5 30.9-31.0
2 Cal Poly Mustangs 95.0 49.4-8.8
3 New Mexico Lobos 60.4 30.7-24.3
4 USC Trojans 51.5 26.0-26.2
5 @UCLA Bruins 44.6 28.1-30.1
6 Colorado Buffaloes 67.3 30.5-24.9
7 @Utah Utes 48.5 27.5-28.6
9 Oregon Ducks 42.6 27.1-29.7
10 @Washington State Cougars 60.4 30.9-25.9
11 Washington Huskies 46.5 29.5-29.1
12 Arizona Wildcats 49.5 28.7-27.6
13 @California Golden Bears 43.6 28.5-28.0
2015 California Golden Bears
Week Opponent Win% Avg Score
1 Grambling State Tigers 95.0 47.2-8.8
2 San Diego State Aztecs 65.3 27.9-22.4
3 @Texas Longhorns 40.6 26.7-29.7
4 @Washington Huskies 43.6 27.0-28.5
5 Washington State Cougars 53.5 28.4-25.9
6 @Utah Utes 51.5 28.0-27.6
8 @UCLA Bruins 42.6 25.9-29.5
9 USC Trojans 39.6 24.6-27.3
10 @Oregon Ducks 48.5 27.0-28.2
11 Oregon State Beavers 63.4 28.7-25.3
12 @Stanford Cardinal 45.5 24.7-27.9
13 Arizona State Sun Devils 56.4 28.0-28.5
2015 Colorado Buffaloes
Week Opponent Win% Avg Score
1 @Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 65.3 29.0-23.6
2 Massachusetts Minutemen 62.4 27.3-25.0
3 @Colorado State Rams 47.5 27.2-28.2
4 Nicholls Colonels 95.0 48.0-7.2
5 Oregon Ducks 24.8 23.6-30.6
6 @Arizona State Sun Devils 31.7 24.9-30.5
7 Arizona Wildcats 47.5 26.9-28.1
8 @Oregon State Beavers 45.5 26.4-26.1
9 @UCLA Bruins 30.7 24.5-30.8
10 Stanford Cardinal 33.7 22.8-27.8
11 USC Trojans 26.7 22.9-30.0
12 @Washington State Cougars 48.5 27.2-28.1
13 @Utah Utes 32.7 23.4-29.2
2015 Oregon Ducks
Week Opponent Win% Avg Score
1 Eastern Washington Eagles 95.0 48.8-6.0
2 @Michigan State Spartans 47.5 24.4-24.8
3 Georgia State Panthers 78.2 32.7-23.1
4 Utah Utes 56.4 27.5-25.5
5 @Colorado Buffaloes 75.2 30.6-23.6
6 Washington State Cougars 57.4 28.9-25.0
7 @Washington Huskies 38.6 25.0-27.1
9 @Arizona State Sun Devils 57.4 29.7-27.1
10 California Golden Bears 51.5 28.2-27.0
11 @Stanford Cardinal 44.6 25.1-25.7
12 USC Trojans 54.5 28.4-26.3
13 Oregon State Beavers 64.4 28.4-23.1
2015 Oregon State Beavers
Week Opponent Win% Avg Score
1 Weber State Wildcats 95.0 43.8-6.3
2 @Michigan Wolverines 48.5 23.6-25.3
3 San Jose State Spartans 49.5 24.6-24.0
4 Stanford Cardinal 38.6 22.8-27.3
6 @Arizona Wildcats 30.7 23.1-29.0
7 @Washington State Cougars 55.4 26.8-24.9
8 Colorado Buffaloes 53.5 26.1-26.4
9 @Utah Utes 26.7 22.8-28.8
10 UCLA Bruins 30.7 21.9-30.7
11 @California Golden Bears 36.6 25.3-28.7
12 Washington Huskies 32.7 21.9-30.9
13 @Oregon Ducks 35.6 23.1-28.4
2015 Stanford Cardinal
Week Opponent Win% Avg Score
1 @Northwestern Wildcats 64.4 22.7-18.5
2 UCF Knights 64.4 25.2-17.6
3 @USC Trojans 45.5 22.9-24.3
4 @Oregon State Beavers 60.4 27.3-22.8
5 Arizona Wildcats 61.4 27.0-23.1
7 UCLA Bruins 52.5 26.8-27.4
8 Washington Huskies 42.6 24.8-26.3
9 @Washington State Cougars 72.3 29.8-21.7
10 @Colorado Buffaloes 66.3 27.8-22.8
11 Oregon Ducks 53.5 25.7-25.1
12 California Golden Bears 54.5 27.9-24.7
13 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 49.5 26.3-26.0
2015 UCLA Bruins
Week Opponent Win% Avg Score
1 Virginia Cavaliers 47.5 27.4-26.8
2 @UNLV Rebels 84.2 35.5-24.5
3 BYU Cougars 45.5 28.4-29.8
4 @Arizona Wildcats 66.3 29.1-24.1
5 Arizona State Sun Devils 55.4 30.1-28.1
7 @Stanford Cardinal 46.5 27.4-26.8
8 California Golden Bears 57.4 29.5-25.9
9 Colorado Buffaloes 69.3 30.8-24.5
10 @Oregon State Beavers 69.3 30.7-21.9
11 Washington State Cougars 59.4 30.5-25.7
12 @Utah Utes 57.4 28.5-27.0
13 @USC Trojans 51.5 27.4-26.4
2015 USC Trojans
Week Opponent Win% Avg Score
1 Arkansas State Red Wolves 71.3 29.2-22.2
2 Idaho Vandals 86.1 31.5-17.0
3 Stanford Cardinal 54.5 24.3-22.9
4 @Arizona State Sun Devils 48.5 26.2-26.0
6 Washington Huskies 57.4 27.9-24.7
7 @Notre Dame Fighting Irish 54.5 26.8-26.8
8 Utah Utes 65.3 28.1-23.7
9 @California Golden Bears 60.4 27.3-24.6
10 Arizona Wildcats 68.3 27.9-22.5
11 @Colorado Buffaloes 73.3 30.0-22.9
12 @Oregon Ducks 43.6 26.3-28.4
13 UCLA Bruins 48.5 26.4-27.4
2015 Utah Utes
Week Opponent Win% Avg Score
1 Michigan Wolverines 56.4 26.6-24.7
2 Utah State Aggies 59.4 27.9-25.6
3 @Fresno State Bulldogs 68.3 30.2-21.8
4 @Oregon Ducks 43.6 25.5-27.5
6 California Golden Bears 48.5 27.6-28.0
7 Arizona State Sun Devils 50.5 28.6-27.5
8 @USC Trojans 34.7 23.7-28.1
9 Oregon State Beavers 73.3 28.8-22.8
10 @Washington Huskies 44.6 27.1-28.9
11 @Arizona Wildcats 55.4 26.8-24.4
12 UCLA Bruins 42.6 27.0-28.5
13 Colorado Buffaloes 67.3 29.2-23.4
2015 Washington Huskies
Week Opponent Win% Avg Score
1 @Boise State Broncos 51.5 28.7-28.0
2 Sacramento State Hornets 95.0 49.9-6.9
3 Utah State Aggies 53.5 25.2-24.5
4 California Golden Bears 56.4 28.5-27.0
6 @USC Trojans 42.6 24.7-27.9
7 Oregon Ducks 60.4 27.1-25.0
8 @Stanford Cardinal 56.4 26.3-24.8
9 Arizona Wildcats 62.4 28.5-23.6
10 Utah Utes 54.5 28.9-27.1
11 @Arizona State Sun Devils 53.5 29.1-29.5
12 @Oregon State Beavers 67.3 30.9-21.9
13 Washington State Cougars 68.3 29.6-24.7
2015 Washington State Cougars
Week Opponent Win% Avg Score
1 Portland State Vikings 95.0 46.1-6.1
2 @Rutgers Scarlet Knights 55.4 25.2-23.9
3 Wyoming Cowboys 63.4 28.9-25.1
5 @California Golden Bears 46.5 25.9-28.4
6 @Oregon Ducks 42.6 25.0-28.9
7 Oregon State Beavers 43.6 24.9-26.8
8 @Arizona Wildcats 36.6 24.6-28.5
9 Stanford Cardinal 27.7 21.7-29.8
10 Arizona State Sun Devils 38.6 25.9-30.9
11 @UCLA Bruins 40.6 25.7-30.5
12 Colorado Buffaloes 51.5 28.1-27.2
13 @Washington Huskies 31.7 24.7-29.6




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