| Vegas | BCS | AP | Coaches | |
| 1 | Alabama | Alabama | Alabama | Alabama |
| 2 | Oregon | Florida St | Oregon | Oregon |
| 3 | Florida St | Oregon | Florida St | Florida St |
| 4 | Baylor | Ohio St | Ohio St | Ohio St |
| 5 | Stanford | Stanford | Baylor | Baylor |
| 6 | Ohio St | Baylor | Stanford | Stanford |
| 7 | LSU | Clemson | Auburn | Clemson |
| 8 | Georgia | Missouri | Clemson | Oklahoma |
| 9 | Wisconsin | Auburn | Missouri | Missouri |
| 10 | Arizona St | Oklahoma | LSU | Auburn |
| Notable Absences | ||||
| T-13 | Clemson | |||
| T-14 | Oklahoma | |||
| T-22 | Auburn | |||
| T-29 | Missouri |
Then there were two...
Here’s how I see the rest of the regular season playing out. Special thanks to my friend Paul Bessire from Prediction Machine for sharing his undefeated season probabilities and the likelihood of each team making the BCS title game if undefeated.
Alabama
They’ll run the table even with 3 challenging games against LSU, Auburn, and the SEC east champion remaining. Nick Saban’s team won’t be less than a double digit favorite in any of them.
Most likely spot to lose: Saturday to LSU
Undefeated Chances: 49.7%
Estimated BCS Title Game Chances (as undefeated team): 49.7%
Oregon
I’m not as enamored with this team as most people in the country are right now. They’ve shown me reason to be concerned over the last few weeks and I believe the honeymoon ends Thursday in Palo Alto. Stanford knows what it takes to beat the Ducks and I give David Shaw a decided coaching edge with added time to prepare.
Most likely spot to lose: Thursday at Stanford
Undefeated Chances: 40.4%
Estimated BCS Title Game Chances (as undefeated team): 40.4%
Florida St
They were my pick before the season to play for the title and I’ll stand by it now. Lay-ups against Wake, Syracuse, and Idaho should be foregone conclusions meaning the ACC title and UF appear to be the lone obstacles. The season finale at Florida won’t be easy but I just can’t see the Gators having enough offense to derail the Seminoles dream season, even with the game taking place in the Swamp.
Most likely spot to lose: November 30 @ Florida
Undefeated Chances: 53.2%
Estimated BCS Title Game Chances (as undefeated team): 40.2%
Baylor
Say what you want about this team not being tested but they’ve been on a mission since beating Kansas St last year. Clearly we’ll know more about the Bears after Thursday night’s tussle with OU than we do right now. Even with a win, I don’t see Baylor running the table with the toughest part of their schedule still to come
Most likely spot to lose: November 23 @ Oklahoma St
Undefeated Chances: 23.5%
Estimated BCS Title Game Chances (as undefeated team): 12.9%
Ohio St
Braxton Miller is the real deal making this offense scary good along with Carlos Hyde. However the secondary is still a major question and a unit we won’t see the unit tested until the postseason. Would an undefeated OSU team leapfrog a 1 loss SEC champion? Let the debate rage
Most likely spot to lose: December 7 vs Michigan St (Big Ten Title Game)
Undefeated Chances: 45.9%
Estimated BCS Title Game Chances (as undefeated team): 21.1%
Potential National Championship Lines (favorite listed on the left)
| Ohio St | Baylor | Florida St | Oregon | |
| Alabama | -10 | -8.5 | -4 | -3 |
| Oregon | -9 | -7 | PK | |
| Florida St | -6 | -4 | ||
| Baylor | -3 |
