Start ‘Em
Chad Billingsley (@MIL, @HOU)
Sure, owners can dismiss Billingsley’s early domination (0.63 ERA, 0.63 WHIP in 14.1 innings) as dividends from facing pedestrian lineups in the Padres and Pirates. However, this beneficial slate continues this week with matchups against Milwaukee (26th in batting average, 23rd in OBP) and Houston (off to a hot start, but c’mon, they’re still the Astros). For his part, Billingsley has displayed a newfound sense of control, walking just one batter in his two starts. Brandishing a bloated 4.0 BB/9 mark in 2011, if Billingsley can keep the free passes to a minimum, he could be one of fantasy’s surprises in 2012.
Kyle Lohse (CIN, @PIT)
Lohse was solid on the fantasy front in 2011, winning 14 games and owning a 1.17 WHIP. Alas, I was hesitant in endorsing the St. Louis right-hander, jaded by his five-year averages of a 4.86 ERA and 1.43 WHIP from the 2006 to 2010 seasons. Yet two strong starts to begin the current campaign have made me a believer. The Pirates have scored the fewest runs on the Senior Circuit thus far, and the Reds aren’t far behind, ranking 13th in the National League in offense. He won’t offer much from a punch-out perspective, yet Lohse is a sound investment for your team’s ERA, WHIP and win totals.
Justin Masterson (@SEA, @OAK)
Masterson’s masterful debut in 2012 (eight innings, two hits, one run, 10 Ks) was somewhat negated with a so-so showing in outing number two (five innings, eight hits, five runs, two Ks). Don’t let his recent rocky performance deter you from inserting Masterson into the rotation this week, especially against less than daunting combatants in Seattle and Oakland. Also helping Masterson this week are the spacious dimensions of Safeco Park and O.Co Coliseum, yards that hamper the home run. As the long ball has occasionally been the downfall of Masterson, these stadiums should provide extra assistance in his pitching endeavors.
Other Start ‘Ems
Ian Kennedy (PIT, ATL)
Tommy Hanson (NYM, @ARI)
Brandon McCarthy (@LAA, CLE)
Yovani Gallardo (LAD, COL)
Johnny Cueto (@STL, @CHI)
Justin Verlander (@KC, TEX)
Jered Weaver (OAK, BAL)
Dan Haren (OAK, BAL)
Roy Halladay (@SF, @SD)
CC Sabathia (MIN, @BOS)
Ricky Romero (TB, @KC)
Stephen Strasburg (HOU, MIA)
Tim Lincecum (PHI, @NYM)
Sit ‘Em
Josh Johnson (CHC, @WAS)
Let me state that I own an affinity for Johnson, stemming from his contributions to my fantasy title in 2010, and vouched in the preseason that the Miami ace is worth the risk in rotisserie. While he may rejuvenate into his All-Star self, Johnson is clearly not 100 percent, mostly in reference to the waning velocity on his fastball. For those seeking optimism, Johnson’s control is fairly intact, and the Cubs and Nationals certainly provide a platform to bounce back this week. Still, until he illustrates his once-illustrious aptitude on the mound, Johnson best serves your team on the pine.
Cory Luebke (@COL, PHI)
Luebke’s 3.29 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in his first season as starter in 2011 made him an enticing late-round selection. A forgettable first game against the Dodgers (4.2 innings, five earned runs, nine hits) was not what owners were hoping for, although Luebke redeemed himself against Arizona with just one run in over five innings of work. Furthermore, Luebke’s one of the rare Padre pitchers that performs better on the road, with a career 4.01 ERA at home versus a 2.87 mark away from PETCO Park. Unfortunately, upcoming battles against Colorado and Philadelphia (despite their injuries, still a dangerous lineup) don’t forebode success for Luebke this week.
Jake Arrieta (@CHW, @LAA)
Don’t let the 2.63 ERA fool you. Arrieta pitched a seven-inning shutout against the lowly Twins to start the season, but was brought down to earth against the Bronx Bombers last week (6.2 innings, four runs, five strikeouts). In AL-only formats, Arrieta, who’s owned in 15.4 percent of FOXSports.com leagues, is worth a look, yet deploying the third-year pitcher against two formidable foes in the White Sox and Angels is an unnecessary gamble.
Other Sit ‘Ems
Drew Smyly (@KC, TEX)
Daniel Bard (TB, NYY)
Wei Yin Chen (@CHW, @LAA)
Jeremy Guthrie (SD, @MIL)
Kyle Weiland (@WAS, LAD)
Carl Pavano (@NYY, @TB)
Francisco Liriano (@NYY, @TB)
Freddy Garcia (MIN, @BOS)
Dillon Gee (@ATL, SF)
Jeff Niemann (@TOR, MIN)
Use Caution
Erik Bedard (@ARI, STL)
This is no condemnation on Bedard, who has been respectable in his first two outings (12 innings, three earned runs, seven strikeouts). Rather, a simple reminder that the pitiful Pittsburgh bats won’t facilitate a plethora of Ws, and meetings with Arizona and St. Louis, who sit on the opposite end of the offensive spectrum, could do damage to Bedard’s output. Only start in deep leagues this week.
Ryan Dempster (@MIA, CIN)
In his defense, Dempster’s .324 BABIP and 3.70 xFIP suggest regression from 2011’s 4.80 ERA. Yet I harbor little conviction that Dempster will continue his torrid strikeout rate (15 K’s through 14.1 innings) and the 0.91 WHIP and 1.88 ERA should be shooting upwards shortly. While the Marlins and Reds won’t keep pitchers up at night, the Chicago offense will offer little support, impeding his fantasy value. Temper your expectations out of the 34-year-old Dempster.
Joe Saunders (PIT, ATL)
Saunders’ shutout against the Padres last week surprised many, as the Diamondback struggled mightily in spring (7.98 ERA in 14.2 innings). Pitching against the Pirates offers an opportunity to piggyback off this achievement, but the Braves can’t be dismissed as easily. Saunders does have one of the stronger offenses helping his cause; unfortunately, Saunders’ home ERA last season was 4.42 versus a 3.14 mark on the road. In NL-only leagues, Saunders deserves a spot in the lineup this week. In regular formats, the proposition is more hazardous.
Other Cautions
Wandy Rodriguez (@WAS, LAD)
Danny Duffy (DET, TOR)
Randall Delgado ((NYM, @ARI)
Philip Humber (BAL, @SEA)
John Danks (BAL, @SEA)
Anthony Bass (@COL, PHI)
Tyson Ross (@LAA, CLE)
Joe Blanton (@SF, @SD)
Kevin Millwood (CLE, CHW)
James Shields (@BOS, MIN)
Colby Lewis (@ BOS, @DET)
