Tom Ford, Quincy, MA: I picked up David Nelson on waivers and was going to use him at Flex in a 1 pt. PPR league. Any thoughts?
Owners need to examine early-season surprises with a grain of salt, as they often aren’t indicative of a player’s performance for the rest of the campaign. Case in point: Kevin Curtis. In Week 3 of the 2007 season, the then-Eagle receiver posted 11 receptions for 221 yards and three touchdowns, immediately transforming the uncommonly-owned Curtis into a blazing waiver-wire commodity. While he finished the year with respectable numbers, Curtis found the end zone just three times in the last 13 games. (True story – in one of my leagues that season, the owner that won Curtis offered me the Philly wideout’s services along with Lee Evans in exchange for Wes Welker and Brandon Marshall. In a related note, that owner finished last in the league.)
That said, with Roscoe Parrish out of the season, Nelson will man the slot spot for Buffalo, correlating to a multitude of throws in his direction (19 targets so far in 2011). As mentioned in yesterday’s Fantasy Fever, I like Ryan Fitzpatrick, just not sold on the Buffalo QB’s merits as an every-week starter. But with Nelson, especially in PPR leagues, he makes for a solid flex starter, and even a No. 2 receiver in deeper formats.
Greg VanMeter, Rochester, NY: Mendenhall/Julio - Where are the points!? Pick up Nate Washington or Eric Decker?
On the opposite end of the spectrum in regards to skepticism with early emergences, practice patience with your disappointing draft picks. Without fail, an owner will exile a relatively-high draft pick to the wire as punishment for his underperformance. Remember, the season is a marathon, not a sprint. Give the floundering fantasy player until Week 6 to right the ship before you evaluate his status.
In regards to Rashard Mendenhall and Julio Jones, Mendenhall faced a bruising Baltimore defense in Week 1 and bounced back with a solid showing against Seattle last week. Meanwhile, Jones submitted a strong debut in Chicago, and received eight targets last Sunday night against Philadelphia. Both players remain fantasy contributors.
As for Washington and Decker, the latter has the higher upside with Eddie Royal sidelined for the next few weeks and Brandon Lloyd still banged up. More importantly, Decker showcased in Week 2 he is ready for the responsibility of a full-time starter. Washington has turned in two sound games, but has lacked consistency in his career. Plus, he has Matt Hasselbeck throwing to him, so there’s that.
Ramon, Miami: Trade A.J. Green for M. Ingram? PPR
Owners haven’t been thrilled with Ingram’s output in the early going (27 carries, 91 yards, fumble lost), but once New Orleans begins to build bigger leads, expect the Saints to feed Ingram more rushing opportunities. But while he still may project as the Saints’ starting back, Green has the aptitude of a fantasy No. 1 receiver. Not only is the rapport between Green and Cincinnati signal caller Andy Dalton evident, but with the likely suspension of Jerome Simpson forthcoming, Green should see an increased workload. Don’t pull the trigger on the trade, Ramon. (Speaking of Ramons, has anyone seen Scott Hall, a.k.a “Razor Ramon” lately? Holy Moses, the man’s a blimp! Luckily, Hall still rocks the meanest stubble this side of Kurt Warner.)
Patrick, Jersey City, NJ: Jonathan Stewart or Knowshon Moreno?
Well Patrick, you may be S.O.L. my friend. It took all of one game for Moreno to validate claims from his detractors regarding his fragile frame, while Carolina utterly abandoned the ground game in their first two contests. If you have to choose between the two, Stewart has a clean bill of health, whereas Moreno has been limited this week in practice with a hamstring injury. Throw in Stewart’s activity in the Panthers’ passing game last week (eight receptions, 100 yards) and the Carolina back is your man.
Note: the following questions derive from Tuesday’s chat:
Josh: Should Peyton be picked up in my league...will he be ready for the fantasy playoffs?
Why do people keep assuming Manning will be back? HE WENT TO EUROPE FOR AN EXTREME, FDA-UNAPPROVED STEM-CELL TREATMENT! That only happens in action movies and the Yankee clubhouse. Plus, as mentioned yesterday, the Colts are clearly in tank-mode. Don’t expect to see Manning on the field in 2011.
Mondaca: I'm a fantasy moron. I've left Cam Newton on the bench two weeks in a row! Is he a must start every week now?
It’s not your fault, Mondaca. It’s not your fault. Look at me, son: it’s not your fault. It’s not your fault.
As of now, Newton is a must-start until he proves otherwise. Aside from his struggles in the red zone, which should be waving a bigger red wave than analysts are pointing out, Newton has the poise, presence and confidence of a veteran field general. But don’t push down on the gas pad just yet. While Newton has been remarkable, his opponents were an atrocious Arizona secondary and a secretly-susceptible Green Bay defense. This week’s adversary, Jacksonville, shouldn’t pose as a threat, but prepare yourself for a few let-downs.
Allison: Would you drop Crabtree or Plaxico to pick up Burleson?
Historical evidence indicates Burleson is fantasy kryptonite, crossing the 1,000-yard barrier just once in eight seasons. But if the Detroit receiver is ever to be trusted (and frankly, I’m still cynical), it would be with Matthew Stafford at the helm of the Lions’ offense. Stafford has the unit firing on all cylinders, and with primary target Calvin Johnson still slowed by an ankle injury, this is Burleson’s time to shine. Go with Burleson over the other two receivers, but keep your guard up.
KtotheE: Should I bail on Foster, trade him for Best?
If anyone is dumb enough to take a chance on Foster, ship his carcass out in two winks of a coalminer’s eye. Not only is his hamstring injury lingering longer than initially diagnosed, but backup Ben Tate has taken the reins of the position and blown the competition away. Tate’s tenacity allows Houston the privilege of not rushing Foster back, meaning last year’s leading-rusher will see abbreviated action for the next month or more. He could still retain some value at the end of the season, but Foster is forecast as a fantasy cipher for the foreseeable future.
