With 17 games to go, the Indians are in the thick of the AL wildcard race. Five teams sit within two games of the final spot, which means it may come down to who is hottest down the stretch.
The Indians pitching has been red hot - they rank 2nd in the American League in ERA (3.34) since the All Star break. In that same time frame, starting pitching ranks 2nd in the league in ERA (3.33) and 3rd in WAR (6.0), though the bullpen has also been steady ranking 5th in ERA (3.36) and 7th in WAR (1.5).
While the pitching has kept the Indians afloat in their playoff chase, the lineup has been a disappointment since the All Star break, keeping them from breaking through.
There is no hiding the Indians poor second half numbers. As a team they rank 13th out of 15 teams in the American League in batting average (.239), 13th in OPS (.688), 14th in total bases (634) and 11th in WAR (4.0).
It has not been one or two players struggling since the break; it has been a collective group effort. Check out the numbers of these 12 regulars in the lineup since the All Star break:
Yan Gomes: .340 AVG, 4 HR, 14 RBI, .950 OPSRyan Raburn: .300 AVG, 5 HR, 18 RBI, 1.075 OPSMichael Brantley: .275 AVG, 1 HR, 14 RBI, .711 OPSMike Aviles: .275 AVG, 4 HR, 14 RBI, .708 OPSCarlos Santana: .246 AVG, 7 HR, 21 RBI, .779 OPSJason Kipnis: .243 AVG, 4 HR, 19 RBI, .685 OPSNick Swisher: .237 AVG, 8 HR, 21 RBI, .721 OPSMichael Bourn: .211 AVG, 3 HR, 23 RBI, .581 OPSLonnie Chisenhall: .210 AVG, 3 HR, 6 RBI, .615 OPSAsdrubal Cabrera: .200 AVG, 4 HR, 20 RBI, .573 OPSDrew Stubbs: .195 AVG, 2 HR, 6 RBI, .576 OPSJason Giambi: .158 AVG, 2 HR, 6 RBI, .508 OPS
That is a disturbing collection of poor performance that spans two full months.
The league appears to have adjusted to the Indians in the way they are pitching them. The Indians have seen the 5th most fastballs (59.0%) in the American League, but have seen the 2nd fewest sliders (11.2%) and instead have seen the 2nd most curveballs (11.2%) and 3rd most changeups (11.4%). It is clear that teams are attacking them by spotting the fastball but mixing in a lot of slow offspeed stuff.
Adjustments made to the opposition's pitching have not worked and they appear to be pressing as a group. It does not help that Raburn has been out with a foot injury, but they have relied too much on the likes of Raburn, Gomes, and Aviles – all bench players – as their main cogs in the lineup in the second half.
When the season started, the four leaders of the lineup were expected to be Kipnis, Swisher, Bourn and Cabrera - all four opened the season at the top of the batting order. But all four have struggled in the second half.
Kipnis' second half struggles come off of a sensational first half, where he hit .301 with 13 HR, 57 RBI and .897 OPS and made the All Star team. It is a near carbon copy of his play last season when he hit .277 with 11 HR, 49 RBI and .764 OPS at the All Star break before only hitting .233 with 3 HR, 27 RBI and .650 OPS after it.
Bourn is heading toward the worst season of his career. His .258 batting average, 22 stolen bases, and .649 OPS are all career lows by far of any season he has been a regular in his career. He is also on pace to finish with the worst strikeout rate of his career.
Swisher is also heading to one of his worst seasons in his career. His .240 batting average and .739 OPS would be career lows, and his walk rate has dropped to a near career low and his strikeout rate has jumped to a near career high.
Cabrera may be the worst offender and his struggles may hurt the most. His .233 average and .672 OPS are career lows, and his strikeout rate has jumped to an alarming career worst 21.1%.
Sooner or later Kipnis, Swisher, Cabrera, and Bourn have to start producing as they were expected. If the Indians are going to squeeze into the playoffs, it is going to be up to the offense to turn itself around these final 17 games. If any combination of them can find a spark these final few games it might just be enough to push the Indians into the playoffs.
Thankfully, the Indians play the White Sox six times, the Astros four times, and the Twins four times, leaving just the Royals (three times) as the only remaining team that is a threat with their pitching. The Astros and Twins have the two worst pitching staffs in the American League, and while the White Sox staff is not as bad they have had their struggles this year as well.
If there was ever a time for this offense to fix itself and for the key cogs in the lineup to start producing, now is the time. If not, then they will be on the outside looking in when the playoffs start in three weeks.
