Three Cuts: Braves offense falters in second straight loss to Mets
ATLANTA -- The Atlanta Braves' have eight games remaining on the regular season schedule, but with Saturday night's 4-2 loss to the New York Mets capping their sixth straight series loss any hopes of the postseason have faded.
The Braves are now seven games back in the wildcard race behind the Pittsburgh Pirates, so even the mathematical odds are nearing rock-bottom: if Atlanta finished the season on an 8-0 run, they'll need the Pirates to go 1-7 just to tie. That reality filtered through the Braves' clubhouse on Saturday night, the result of a frustrating September becoming clear. Here are three observations from the game:
When the finality of a 162-game season becomes apparent, the cliches tend to disappear. Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman, who drove in Atlanta's two runs in their eighth loss of the past 10 games, was candid in his postgame remarks, once again falling on the sword with his other hitters, taking the blame for what is now a 76-78 season.
"Same story, just a different day. Hard to win ballgames when you score two runs, you know? That's the name of the game the last few weeks," Freeman said. "We hit the ball hard all night, but it's just one those weeks, months, years that nothing's falling our way."
The Braves are on pace for their worst record since that forgettable 2008 season in which they finished 18 games below .500, scoring fewer than three runs in 38.3 percent of their games. They are 4-13 in September games with little explanation. The offense has sputtered and the pitching could no longer hold up under the zero-margin-for-error expectations.
It has many, including myself, referencing the 2011 season, and Freeman didn't completely shy away from the comparisons.
"I think 2011 was more frustrating. We had like a nine-game lead in 2011 and we lost that one. But we just haven't been able to score runs all year. It's not as frustrating. It's obviously frustrating because we haven't been able to score runs, but I think 2011 was even more because we had a huge lead."
Here's the scenario for the Braves: any combination of two does the trick. Two Braves losses and they're out. Two Pirates wins and they're out. One Pirates win and one Braves loss and they're out. Put any of those together and the season is officially ending at 162.
There's been one constant: lineup problems and a lack of scoring.
"I thought we had good at-bats up and down the lineup," manager Fredi Gonzalez said of the Braves loss, "but the first column is the one you worry about: the runs."
Freeman nailed it: Same story, different day.
Braves left-hander Mike Minor, who has turned things around of late and was even complimented by Gonzalez in the pregame, left the game after just one inning complaining of shoulder soreness.
"I could tell in warmups," Minor said of the shoulder. "I just thought maybe it would get a little bit better as I threw my bullpen or even when a batter steps in and you get that little extra adrenaline, (the pain) kinda goes away a little bit, and tonight it didn't. Every pitch, I could feel something."
Added Gonzalez: "It's a shame. The young man had some pretty good starts going into that one there, and he had to come out with the shoulder thing. ... He's had a little bit of history with that. He's been fighting it a little bit. We didn't wanna push him any further than that."
Things got off to a rocky start for Minor on Saturday night, one in which he gave up a walk and hit a batter in the first two plate appearances before the Mets sent their first runner home on two sacrifice flies, and it wasn't worth taking the risk by putting more stress on the shoulder. The Mets would go on to score two additional runs in the second inning off reliever David Hale -- setting up the practically insurmountable three-run lead -- but Minor walked away without any further discomfort.
Still, it would have been encouraging for the franchise if Minor could have finished off his final two regular seasons starts problem-free. Since the team skipped Minor's second August start to give him some time to figure some things out, he had put together a solid end-of-the-season stretch: 46 1/3 innings pitched, 3.30 ERA with 33 strikeouts and 14 walks. Those seven outings weren't enough to distance himself from the replacement-level tag he's carried throughout the 2014 season, but it was enough to keep Atlanta within relative striking distance most of the time.
Now, it's back to Square One.
Minor was coming off a terrible outing against the Texas Rangers, giving up five earned runs and three walks in 4 2/3 innings pithed to what was at the time (and arguably still is) the worst team in baseball, and now he leaves his second-to-last start with shoulder soreness with his final start in jeopardy. Basically, very little has gone right for the lefty throughout the campaign and just when things were coming together they fell off the rail again.
"There were some times when (the shoulder) was barking a little bit, but I can't write that off as all year long it hurting every game. Maybe some starts, but not every single game," Minor said. "It's very frustrating. But I guess on a positive side hopefully it's nothing and I can get it taken care of in the offseason and I don't go into spring training behind like I did this year."
Other than Julio Teheran and Alex Wood, there's expected to be a lot of unknown and movement in the Braves' rotation this offseason. Minor still has a couple years of arbitration left coming off his worst professional season, Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy are each coming off their second career Tommy John surgery and Ervin Santana, Aaron Harang and Gavin Floyd are set to be free agents. Throw in David Hale, who looks like a No. 5 starter at best in the majors, and that's the entire starting staff this season. Having Mike Minor finish strong -- or at least stronger -- would've helped clear some of that up.
The Braves' talented left fielder had a feel-good moment on Friday night when he reached base and good-naturedly asked to keep the ball in celebration of the rare occasion. That's the kind of month Upton, who remains one of the team's three best hitters over the course of the year, has slogged through.
According to FanGraphs, Justin Upton qualified as one of the five least valuable players in the month of September with a negative-0.4 WAR entering Saturday night's action -- ahead of only Will Middlebrooks (Red Sox), Matt Dominguez (Astros), Mark Trumbo and Miguel Montero (Diamondbacks). The Braves standout was hitting just .135/.224/.250 for 36 weighted runs created plus, the 10th-worst offensive numbers in the majors on top of below-average fielding metrics. His strikeouts have spiked and his patience at the plate is waning.
On Saturday, it was more of the same. Upton finished the night 0 for 4, including a rally-killing groundout with two on and one out in the eighth inning (when Freddie Freeman had just driven home the only two runs of the game). In a vacuum, Atlanta would want little more than a middle-of-the-order run of Freeman and Upton with runners in scoring position ... but this September is not a reflection of Upton's true effectiveness as a player. Gonzalez did, however, outline some bad luck for his struggling outfielder:
"Justin hit two balls right on the screws with people on base," Gonzalez said. "I thought the next one (he hit) in the eighth inning was gonna get through."
More times than not, he's hurt Atlanta's chances of making up ground in the wildcard this month, and it's only been amplified because of how high he bats in the lineup.
Forgettable month for Upton. Forgettable month -- and season -- for the team.
