I’ve written a lot about Bryce Harper. You’ve written a lot about Bryce Harper. And in the wake of his three-homer game Wednesday, now we’re all going to be writing a lot more about Bryce Harper.
Before doing that, though, I thought I’d see what I’d written about him recently.
First, in October, just after Harper crushed a few fastballs in the Nationals’ losing Division Series:
Finally ... Suggesting that Bryce Harper will bounce back next season and become a great team’s best player is not to suggest that he’ll soon be that guy. Steamer projects a 4.3 WAR next season for Harper if he gets 600 plate appearances ... which is just 19th in the majors. Still excellent, of course, but well behind Mike Trout atop the list. For whatever reasons, Harper’s just not the ridiculously polished tyro that Trout was, or that Alex Rodriguez and Junior Griffey and Ty Cobb were. Harper was supposed to be that sort of player, too.
Which doesn’t mean he can’t become a superstar, and build a career that ranks with those immortals. It just means he’s got some catching up to do. You know, since he's almost 22 and stuff. Still, I wouldn’t bet much against him winning an MVP Award in the next four or five years. Would you?
And then in January:
A commenter points out that Harper, in 98 starts, stole only two bases, was caught stealing twice ... and was also picked off four times.
This seems worrisome to me. Not because Harper’s baserunning is really hurting the Nationals so much. In terms of runs and wins, we’re talking about relatively small numbers here. But Harper was supposed to be a great all-around player, and now he’s become a poor baserunner while still just 21. Oh, and the numbers suggest he didn’t play well in the outfield last season, either.
I remember when Harper was going to become the next big superstar. Now he’s 22 and seems like he might become a one-dimensional power hitter.
I have not seen anything this spring that makes me think any differently about Harper.
Well, not much differently. For whatever reason, he’s drawn a huge number of walks, essentially doubling his walk percentage this season. Is that for real? I wouldn’t be terribly surprised. Players tend to draw more walks as they mature, plus you have to figure a bunch of pitchers were watching television last October when Harper turned around Hunter Strickland’s fastballs.
So, apologies. Now it seems like Bryce Harper might become a two-dimensional power hitter.
Because there’s no reason to think he’ll be a high-average hitter. He’s stolen exactly zero bases this season. And his fielding ... well, that depends on which metrics you like. His UZR is terrible, his Defensive Runs Saved really good. But we know that players do not generally become faster, better fielders as they age.
So I still say Harper’s gonna be a big-time slugger, at least when he’s healthy enough to play. And given enough home runs, he might well be an MVP candidate before long. I just don’t think he’s going to be the same sort of player we expected.
And as I’ve written, the same might be true of Bryce Harper.
Which leads to another point. We have this notion – and it’s a notion that I’ve long propagated, without really meaning to – that young baseball players are essentially the same, improving steadily until their late 20s. All the results I’ve found confirm the general truth of this ... but players like Mike Trout and Bryce Harper are hardly general. When you’ve got immense talent at 20, there’s just not much improvement available. Which is why we can’t just assume that Trout and Harper will actually be better at 27 than they were at 20. Especially Trout.
They’ll have more big seasons, though. Especially Trout. But if Harper can stay healthy, there will be more days like Wednesday.
