PROJECTED ROTATION
RHP Carl Pavano, 9-13, 4.30 ERA, 222.0 IP in 2011; LHP Francisco Liriano, 9-10, 5.09 ERA, 134.1 IP in 2011; RHP Scott Baker, 8-6, 3.14 ERA, 134.2 IP in 2011; RHP Nick Blackburn, 7-10, 4.49 ERA, 148.1 IP in 2011; RHP Jason Marquis, 8-6, 4.43 ERA, 132.0 IP in 2011 (with Washington and Arizona).
When a team loses 99 games in a season, there are usually several reasons why. But, in 2011, the Twins' pitching rotation was certainly a weakness. Minnesota's starters posted a combined 4.64 ERA, third-worst in the American League and fifth-worst in all of baseball.
Like the rest of the team, Minnesota's rotation was not immune to injuries. The Twins' best pitcher in the first half of 2011 was Scott Baker, but the right-hander went on the disabled list in mid-July and again in early August, both times with a right flexor strain. He finished the season with just 134.2 innings after he went 7-5 with a 3.01 ERA in his first 17 starts. Baker has been bothered by elbow tenderness this spring, but the Twins are remaining hopeful that he'll be ready for the start of the season.
Liriano is the rotation's best strikeout pitcher, and he's showing that this spring. In 18.0 innings (five starts), Liriano has struck out 23 batters and walked just three while posting a 2.00 ERA and a WHIP of 0.72. Those numbers are akin to his breakout 2006 season, when he was 12-3 with a 2.16 ERA and 144 strikeouts in 121.0 innings. Liriano hasn't been the same pitcher since then, however, after missing all of 2007 following Tommy John surgery. His spring has been encouraging, but now it's a matter of whether Liriano can carry that into the regular season.
Like Baker, Liriano missed time in 2011 with an injury. But he said earlier this spring that his shoulder that bothered him last season is healthy again.
"The way I feel right now, nothing's bothering me right now," Liriano said.
Marquis is the only addition to the rotation from last season, as he signed as a free agent this winter. Marquis spent 12 seasons in the majors with a total of six teams prior to coming to Minnesota. He's struggled in his first spring with the Twins, allowing 12 runs on 19 hits in 12.2 innings.
"It's a process. Listen, by the end of spring, your last two starts, you do want good results to get you in a positive frame of mind going into the season," Marquis said after a rough start earlier this month. "Not having to be a young guy trying to impress and make the club and have to come in ready and have all my pitches sharp. So it's a different mentality, myself and (Pavano), we have that little bit of leeway and time to get ourselves sharp going into the season."
Speaking of Pavano, he'll be the Twins' Opening Day starter for the second year in a row. The 36-year-old right-hander is in his 14th major league season. His numbers last year weren't particularly impressive — 9-13 record, 4.30 ERA, WHIP of 1.36 — but he was the lone starter to stay healthy all year. His 222.0 innings were the second-most of his career, barely eclipsed only by his 2004 season with Florida when he pitched 222.1 innings.
That 200-inning plateau is something Blackburn is striving to hit this season. He's done so just once in his five-year career, throwing 205.2 innings in 2009. After offseason forearm surgery, Blackburn has pitched seven scoreless innings of Grapefruit League action. He's changed where he stands on the pitching rubber — moving closer to the center of the mound — and said he's seen results already.
Like the rest of the Twins, Blackburn knows health will be pivotal to his individual success in 2012.
"Obviously it's no secret that I haven't been extremely consistent over the last couple years," said Blackburn, who has posted ERAs of 5.42 and 4.49 over the last
two seasons. "That's something that, being a sinkerball pitcher you have to do. If I
can't get to 200 innings, I'm not offering a whole lot. I'm not going to go out there
and strike a lot of guys out. I'm not a power pitcher. I've got to get to where I'm
eating up some innings."
OTHER AL CENTRAL ROTATIONS
Chicago White Sox (John Danks, 8-12, 4.33 ERA; Jake Peavy, 7-7, 4.92 ERA; Gavin Floyd, 12-13, 4.37 ERA; Chris Sale, 2-2, 2.79 ERA (zero starts); Phillip Humber, 9-9, 3.75 ERA); Cleveland Indians (Ubaldo Jimenez, 4-4, 5.10 ERA (11 games); Justin Masterson, 12-10, 3.21 ERA; Josh Tomlin, 12-7, 4.25 ERA; Derek Lowe, 9-17, 5.05 ERA (with Atlanta); Kevin Slowey, 0-8, 6.67 ERA [14 games with Minnesota]); Detroit Tigers (Justin Verlander, 24-5, 2.40 ERA in 2011; Max Scherzer, 15-9, 4.43 ERA; Doug Fister, 8-1, 1.79 ERA (11 games); Rick Porcello, 14-9, 4.75 ERA; Andrew Oliver, 0-1, 6.52 ERA [2 games]); Kansas City Royals (Luke Hochevar, 11-11, 4.68 ERA in 2011; Bruce Chen, 12-8, 3.77 ERA; Jonathan Sanchez, 4-7, 4.26 ERA (with San Francisco); Danny Duffy, 4-8, 5.64 ERA; Felipe Paulino, 4-6, 4.11 ERA).
There are several new faces in the AL Central, but Detroit's Justin Verlander remains the best pitcher in the division. After winning 24 games last season, Verlander won the AL Cy Young Award and the AL MVP. His 2.40 ERA, 251.0 innings and 250 strikeouts were all tops among AL pitchers. He'll again anchor an impressive Tigers rotation in 2012.
Cleveland's first four starters are set, but the No. 5 spot remains a question mark. One candidate is former Twin Kevin Slowey, who was traded to the Colorado Rockies in early December and then traded again to Cleveland in late January. Jeanmar Gomez and David Huff are also candidates for that final rotation spot.
The White Sox lost their best pitcher in Mark Buehrle, who signed with the Miami Marlines in December. Chicago inserted former reliever Chris Sale into the rotation, where he'll join John Danks, Jake Peavy, Gavin Floyd and Phillip Humber.
Kansas City's starters had the second-worst ERA (4.82) in baseball last season. The Royals acquired Jonathan Sanchez this offseason, but their rotation remains a question mark. Bruce Chen was their top starter from a year ago, and he'll likely be their No. 1 or No. 2 starter this season.
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