Projected lineup
1. 1B: Ben Zobrist
2. LF: Johnny Damon
3. DH: Manny Ramirez
4. 3B: Evan Longoria
5. RF: Matt Joyce
6. CF: B.J. Upton
7. C: John Jaso/Kelly Shoppach
8. 2B: Sean Rodriguez
9. SS: Reid Brignac
Projected rotation
1. SP: David Price
2. SP: James Shields
3. SP: Jeff Niemann
4. SP: Wade Davis
5. SP: Jeremy Hellickson
CL: Kyle Farnsworth
Five tips
• I love the Rays, but they’re a fantasy analyst’s nightmare. You never know what they’re going to do. Zobrist could play five different positions, Damon might be at first base on some nights, and Rodriguez can play the outfield or shortstop when Zobrist plays second base. The lineup will be fluid all year long. That’s just the way they do things.
• And because that’s the way the Rays do things, some players are eligible at multiple positions. Based on 20 games last season, Zobrist and Rodriguez qualify at 2B/OF, and Brignac fits at 2B/SS. That can help in daily lineup leagues.
• It wouldn’t be a Rays preview if we didn’t address my longtime favorite player, Bossman Junior Upton. He’s been a disappointment for many owners that have picked him high, but this year he’ll probably go in the fifth or sixth round of your standard-league draft.
Upton’s batting average has been bad over the last two seasons, but let’s be optimistic and say it returns to his career .260 mark. Can you draft a lot of other guys at that point capable of 18 home runs, 89 runs and 42 stolen bases? Those are the numbers Upton posted last year.
• K/BB ratio is a helpful metric to predict a pitcher’s future performance. Shields’ 187 whiffs against 51 walks (3.67 K/BB) last season was the 10th-best in the majors, better than that of Roy Oswalt, Zack Greinke, Tommy Hanson, Tim Lincecum and even Felix Hernandez. Shields isn’t in that class – he gives up far too many home runs – but he’s not going to post a 5.18 ERA again, either. He has a lot of upside as a SP4.
• Though the usual strategy is not to count too much on rookie pitchers, Hellickson appears to be the real deal. He was terrific in his brief audition last season. He’s being drafted as an SP5 in standard leagues, and that’s about right. He could easily outpitch that draft slot, too.
Plus:
• Odd man out: The Damon and Ramirez signings mean that speedy outfielder Desmond Jennings will start the season in the minors. The Rays aren’t shy about letting youngsters play, so a May or June promotion could be in the cards.
• Top prospects: Aside from Jennings, catcher Robinson Chirinos, who was acquired from the Cubs in the Matt Garza trade, could arrive this season and provide some pop. Left-handed pitcher Jake McGee could be in the mix for some saves.
• Backup closer: Before knowing the backup, we need to know the closer, and right now we don’t. Farnsworth is listed above because he’s the most likely candidate on the current roster, edging out Joel Peralta (remember, the Rays are unconventional).
If J.P. Howell returns from shoulder surgery in May as hoped, he’ll be a logical candidate to take over the role should the incumbents falter. McGee throws gas, so if they want to give a rookie a chance, he’s probably got the stuff to get it done.
That’s a long-winded way of saying that until the Rays make some sort of decision, you should probably avoid these guys in standard leagues on draft day. Farnsworth will get the first shot; McGee is a keeper-league target; and Howell is the best risk-reward option if you’re looking for that. Stay tuned.
