ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. -- Surprise, surprise.
The Tampa Bay Rays entered Opening Day with visions of playing into October and perhaps reaching the World Series for the second time under manager Joe Maddon. But the first half has disappointed in a way beyond most anyone's imagination. There are a number of reasons why: Key rotation injuries to left-hander Matt Moore and right-hander Alex Cobb, an offense that has labored to produce consistently and sustained losing that saw them drop from a 23-28 record on May 25 to 24-42 on June 10.
They're 32-48 to begin a doubleheader Friday in Baltimore that will mark their season's halfway point. The numbers are startling. The Rays must go 58-24 to reach 90 victories by season's end -- a benchmark they had earned in five of the past six years.
"We definitely are plastered against the wall," Rays manager Joe Maddon said. "We don't even have our backs against the wall. So we've got to really turn this thing around quickly. ... It has been frustrating."
That's a fine way to put it. In reviewing the Rays' first half, it's striking to consider why they have sunk among the majors' worst. Early impressions suggested they were supposed to be a playoff contender. Now they face a host of questions about their future.
Here's a review of the Rays' first half:
Pitching -- Overall, the pitching hasn't been bad. The Rays lead the majors with 700 strikeouts. They pace the league with 243 strikeouts in June, and they stand 19th in the majors with a 3.89 ERA. Disabled-list stints by Moore and Cobb hurt, and reliever Grant Balfour has been worse than anticipated after being signed to a two-year, $12 million contract in January. But left-hander David Price has asserted himself in the past month, and right-hander Jake Odorizzi has grown of late. What will right-hander Jeremy Hellickson look like when he returns after rehabbing from arthroscopic surgery on his throwing elbow? This hasn't been a flawless group, but pitching has remained one of the Rays' best areas.
Offense -- Specifically, the offense has failed to produce with runners in scoring position. Consider these grisly numbers: In their slump from May 31-June 20, the Rays batted .129 (21 for 163) with runners in scoring position. That stretch included team slides of 0 for 34 and 0 for 21 in such scenarios. They average 3.69 runs per game, the fewest in the American League. The Rays have lived with a small margin for error for years. This season has been a study in what happens when too many opportunities go missed.
The 1-14 stretch from May 26-June 10 -- This was stunning. The Rays began the span coming off an emotional three-game sweep of the Boston Red Sox from May 23-25 and carried a 23-28 record before starting an eight-game road trip to Toronto, Boston and Miami. But the travel turned into a nightmare. The Rays dropped all eight contests away from Tropicana Field from May 26-June 3. Life didn't become easier in a return home while dropping six of seven games against the Miami Marlins, Seattle Mariners and St. Louis Cardinals from June 4-10.
The record -- Who saw this coming? After all the spring optimism, after all the talk of "eating last," returning Price and keeping the infield intact, the first half has resembled little of what most throughout baseball expected. It wasn't beyond belief to consider the Rays World Series contenders with their core preserved from the team that went 92-71 in 2013 and reached the postseason for the fourth time in six years. But sometimes, reality doesn't meet expectations. Call it bad injury luck. Call it the breaks of the game. Call it a misjudgment of the Rays' potential. Whatever the label, the Rays' first half fooled almost everyone. Perhaps Moore's elbow injury sustained April 7 in Kansas City -- it later required Tommy John surgery -- was a sign that troublesome days were ahead for Tampa Bay. Few could have seen this start coming.
Jake McGee's rise -- There hasn't been a more consistent arm for the Rays this season. Maddon was quick to dub McGee as the team's "one true All-Star," and that assessment sounds strong now. McGee has become a model of consistency this year as the Rays' choice for late high-leverage moments, and the left-handed reliever has earned one save since Maddon chose to use a by-committee approach to the closer role (McGee has a 1.36 ERA in 36 appearances). Perhaps it's revealing of the Rays' struggles that a middle reliever would be considered their midseason MVP. But that's the reality.
Kevin Kiermaier -- In a first half filled with underachievement, Kiermaier has exceeded expectations. He has batted .300 with four home runs and nine RBI in 31 games, but his defensive work in the outfield has been the most impressive part of his profile since his most recent promotion from Triple-A Durham on May 17. Sure, he has room to grow -- he's only 24 years old -- but he has established himself as a major-league-ready threat who should have a home with Tampa Bay for the foreseeable future. Here's one area where he can improve: Cutting down on strikeouts. He has 23 in 90 at-bats.
Kevin Kiermaier
David Price -- His year hasn't been spotless, but he has pitched with strong consistency throughout June. He owns a 6-7 record with a 3.63 ERA and 144 strikeouts. He has walked just 14. After all the offseason uncertainty, a weight was lifted from his psyche when he reported to spring training wearing a Tampa Bay uniform. Still, as the Rays have struggled, trade talk surrounding his name has turned hot again. It's hard to see a scenario where the Rays don't seek value for him before the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline.
David Price
It's difficult to predict a major pivot coming. The Rays could experience change with significant names on the roster gone by the July 31 deadline. Price, second baseman Ben Zobrist and outfielder/designated hitter Matt Joyce are all possibilities to be moved, with Price's name standing as the largest potential prize for a contender to add to their rotation for a late-season push. It's not out of the possibility for the Rays to go on a hot run in July or August, but they have dug themselves such a significant hole that a rally likely wouldn't be enough to reach the postseason. These are unfamiliar times for a franchise that had become a model of consistency since 2008.
You can follow Andrew Astleford on Twitter @aastleford or email him at aastleford@gmail.com.
