What is the meaning of the term "sleeper" in 2011?
With the amount of time spent poring through data, roster reports and minor-league splits, virtually no stone is left unturned.
As I pondered the prospective “sleeper” candidates in the starting pitcher position, I found myself scrawling out a veritable laundry list of names. I ran the gamut from late-season callups through those hurlers seeking to reclaim past glory following major injuries.
They also include those pitchers who have taunted or teased us in the past with a short stint of brilliance. You need only check your waive- wire logs of last season to unlock a few of those names.
I’ll start this entry in Boston, where a former ace has owners divided.
Josh Beckett, Boston
Beckett’s 2010 season was an unmitigated disaster. He was limited to 21 games because of a back injury and pitched terribly. Beckett struck out 8.2 batters per nine innings and limited his walk total (2.6 strikeouts per walk), but that’s about the end of the positivity. He allowed more than one hit per inning and allowed 20 home runs in his 127 2/3 innings pitched.
It’s possible that the issues associated with his back injury linger. However, fantasy owners won’t have to undertake a huge risk to find out. Beckett is being drafted as a low-end SP3 or high-end SP4 this spring. If sound, he’ll put up huge numbers behind the reconstructed Boston offense.
Matt Garza, Chicago Cubs
He’s not sexy, and his addition to the Chicago rotation didn’t get quite the fanfare one might have anticipated. Still, Garza’s in a position to take a big step forward upon departing the AL East.
Garza’s numbers didn’t change much at all between 2009 and 2010, but he did register seven additional wins to establish a new career mark with 15. He struck out 7.5 batters per nine innings during this two-year period while surrendering less than a hit per inning pitched.
Garza should see a moderate jump in his strikeout rate in the National League, and I suspect that those palpitation-inducing home run totals drop (53 in the past two years). Of course, duck and cover when the wind is blowing out at Wrigley.
Brandon Webb, Texas
The Rangers are hoping that Webb can find some of the magic that made him a Cy Young Award winner for the Diamondbacks. He hasn’t pitched since making one appearance for Arizona in the 2009 season and will be brought along slowly this spring.
Fantasy owners are obviously considering the fact that Nolan Ryan was part of the process of bringing Webb into the mix as well as Webb’s workhorse status prior to the injury. He’s worthy of a flier in the final rounds of a draft, but don’t invest too heavily.
Javier Vazquez, Florida
Does he still count, or has Vazquez been around too long?
Vazquez returns to the National League following his second failed tenure in New York. He pitched dominant 2.87 ERA and 1.03 WHIP totals with 15 wins in 32 starts. Vazquez struck out 238 batters in his 219 1/3 innings pitched (had 9.8 strikeouts per nine IP).
Vazquez has pitched at least 198 innings in 10 of the past 11 seasons. He’ll slide in your draft, but should produce strong numbers in a highly-advantageous home yard.
Max Scherzer, Detroit
The former first-round selection by the Diamondbacks posted an uneven first year in Detroit. He struggled to a dismal 4.61 ERA in the first half of the season with an equally dismal 1.37 WHIP.
Scherzer didn’t win much in the second half (his six wins tied his first-half total), but he logged a 2.47 ERA and lowered his WHIP by 0.23. He lowered his hit rate and surrendered six fewer home runs. Scherzer may just regain the “Mad Max” hype from his Arizona days.
Dan Hudson, Arizona
Hudson was battered in three starts for the White Sox, but found the mark upon arriving in Arizona. He positively dominated in his 11 starts for the Diamondbacks, producing a record of 7-1 with fantastic ERA (2.45), WHIP (1.00) and strikeout numbers (had 7.9 strikeouts per nine IP). Taken further, Hudson struck out more than four batters per walk issued while allowing 5.8 hits per nine innings.
His upside is immense.
Shaun Marcum, Milwaukee
Marcum joins the middle of a rebuilt Milwaukee rotation. In two years as a full-on starter in Toronto, Marcum tallied 22 wins (56 starts) with a strong 3.53 ERA. He averaged 7.5 strikeouts per nine innings (and 3.1 strikeouts per walk) while allowing eight hits per nine innings.
His departure from the AL East certainly helps Marcum at a very basic level. He allowed 45 home runs during his two-year period as a starter for the Blue Jays. He’s a solid addition to the middle of a fantasy rotation while operating behind a strong offense.
Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco
Bumgarner won seven of 18 starts while generating an even 3.00 ERA for the champion Giants last year. He struck out seven batters per nine innings pitched and averaged 3.3 strikeouts per walk (2.1 walks per nine IP).
One curiosity in Bumgarner’s splits is the fact that he positively dominated on the road. He earned a spectacular 1.91 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP in 10 road starts. Conversely, Bumgarner struggled in his eight home starts (4.60 ERA).
Jordan Zimmermann, Washington
Zimmermann appeared in seven games down the stretch in 2010 and pitched to a 4.94 ERA after returning from Tommy John surgery. He surrendered an alarming eight home runs in 31 innings pitched. Still, Zimmermann rediscovered his strikeout punch and fanned nearly one batter per inning pitched.
Zimmermann struck out nearly one batter per inning in the minor leagues during the 2007 and 2008 seasons and matched the mark in 16 starts during the 2009 season. He’s an intriguing candidate for a breakthrough season. We’ll watch him closely this spring.
Brian Matusz, Baltimore
Matusz’s overall numbers don’t jump off of the page. His 2010 ERA (4.30) and WHIP (1.34) totals are pedestrian at best. However, a review into his splits reveals signs of great potential therein.
Matusz pitched to a strong 3.69 ERA in June with a 1.18 WHIP. He regressed again in July before finishing the season with a strong 11-game run. From August 1 to the end of the season, Matusz posted a record of 7-1 with a 2.18 ERA. I know that it’s difficult to get excited about a member of the Baltimore staff. I’m still intrigued.
Jeremy Hellickson, Tampa Bay
The 23-year old prospect (turns 24 in April) from Iowa appeared in 10 games for the Rays down the stretch and put owners in keeper leagues on notice. Hellickson struck out 33 batters in 36 1/3 innings against eight walks to generate a fantastic 1.10 WHIP.
Jair Jurrgens, Atlanta
Jurrjens struggled through five April starts before spending a long period on the disabled list. He pitched to a solid 3.76 ERA in 12 starts between June 1 and August 31 and then slumped in September. Owners anticipated a regression from his 2009 brilliance, as Jurrjens pitches to contact far more than anyone likes (had 6.4 strikeouts per nine IP). The injuries certainly taxed things more than anticipated. If he can return to his 2008 and 2009 form, Jurrjens represents a solid value play late in the draft.
Ricky Romero, Toronto
Romero improved markedly in his second full season for the Blue Jays. His walk and hit rates decreased, thereby yielding a 0.53 reduction in his ERA. He still walked 3.5 batters per nine innings, so there’s still room for improvement.
Kyle Drabek, Toronto
Drabek represents a potential flier pick in the final rounds of drafts this spring. He’s one of a handful of candidates vying for a spot in the back-end of the Toronto rotation. Drabek has great stuff and has recovered nicely from Tommy John surgery. It’s a function of when, not if, he breaks through on the next level.
Drabek started three games for the Blue Jays last season, registering a weak 4.76 ERA with a bloated 1.35 WHIP.
James McDonald, Pittsburgh
The former Los Angeles prospect pitched well in his introduction to Pittsburgh. He won four of 11 games as a member of the Pirates’ rotation while generating a strong 3.52 ERA. McDonald averaged just less than a strikeout per inning (with 61 strikeouts in 64 innings) and surrendered just three home runs. He did walk 3.4 batters per nine innings, so there is potential for disaster.
Gio Gonzalez, Oakland
Gonzalez demonstrated flashes of great potential in his 15-win season. He pitched to a strong 3.23 ERA overall, but was positively dominant in the second half with a 2.59 ERA. Gonzalez He also dramatically improved his WHIP after the break (he lowered both his walk and hit rates).
Gonzalez has averaged nearly 8.5 strikeouts per nine innings during his major league career. There’s a lot to like about his “stuff.” Unfortunately, he’s also walked an average of 4.7 batters per nine innings pitched. Unless the walk rate decreases markedly, Gonzalez’s ceiling may have been reached.
Anibal Sanchez, Florida
Sanchez earned 13 wins in his first full season with the Marlins last season. He pitched to a strong 3.55 ERA despite registering a bloated 1.34 WHIP (he walks 3.2 batters per nine IP).
I’m intrigued by a couple numbers in his splits. Sanchez allowed only 10 home runs in his 195 innings pitched last season (that home park certainly helps). He pitched to a 2.65 home ERA with a 1.23 WHIP. He may improve this season if he gets more comfortable on the road.
Brett Anderson, Oakland
The 6-foot-4 lefty produced an impressive stat line for the A’s in 2010. He pitched to a strong 2.80 ERA in 19 starts and limited the number of home runs allowed (six). Most importantly, Anderson demonstrates pinpoint control (1.8 walks allowed per nine IP). That’s positively huge given the fact that Anderson struck out only six batters per nine innings. He keeps the ball on the ground (1.2 groundballs per flyball allowed) and pitches in a fantastic home park.
