Turns out all those national spring training prognostications that made the Tampa Bay Rays a favorite to reach the World Series were on the money.
That’s the shame of it as the dust settles on their 2012 season.
This was a team that clearly demonstrated down the final stretch that was it good enough to live up to those early predictions — and perhaps good enough to go the entire distance.
There’s no denying that the Rays were among the best teams in major league baseball when they bowed out Wednesday night with a rousing 4-1 win over one of this year’s Cinderella teams, the Baltimore Orioles. Manager Joe Maddon asserted that much in his final press conference Thursday. And the facts bear it out.
Their furious finish of 12 wins in their final 14 contests made them the hottest team in the game. They were powered by the most dominant pitching in the majors — showcased by 20-game winner David Price and Fernando Rodney’s storybook season in relief — and bats that finally came around to support the talented arms.
This was a team that was peaking at just the right time. Yet they came up short because they were ultimately unable to overcome myriad obstacles — many of them of their own making — that created too deep of a rut in their path.
There was the inexplicably poor defense that cost them games in the season’s first half, the ongoing lack of offense that plagued them until the final hot streak, and poor production from several key lineup spots throughout.
Of course, you could argue that the Rays would be in the postseason if it hadn’t been for the freak injury to the one player who holds the team together: third baseman and slugger Evan Longoria.
There are plenty of numbers to back that belief up, too. And it’s a hard one to dismiss for anyone who witnessed the distinct difference in the Rays once Longoria returned from his 85-game absence due to the hamstring tear he suffered sliding into second base.
His stunning swan song in Game 162 with three blasts into the stands hammered the point home. So did this: The Rays were 47-27 in games he started, 43-45 without him. Other batters in the Tampa Bay lineup suddenly saw better pitches to hit again, and the entire team was energized by his presence.
The Rays, with their small payroll, simply aren’t built to withstand the loss of a Longoria, lacking the funds of a big-market, big-spending club to go out and obtain a high-quality replacement. Their lineup proved to be a house of cards that collapsed without their cornerstone holding to hold everything in place.
Longoria’s absence even affected the defense, which wound up using eight different players at third, no doubt contributing to the team’s fielding instability in the first half.
Factor in the parade of ongoing injuries to key performers before the break — B.J. Upton, Desmond Jennings, Jeff Keppinger, Matt Joyce and a disabled list that kept ballooning — and the Rays never really got traction until it was too late in the game.
But let’s put injuries aside, because many teams had them in droves and the Rays still had plenty of opportunities to succeed even with a patched-together lineup.
In one respect, the offensive struggles that began with Longoria highlights the fact that the Rays’ farm system has to start developing hitters along with the steady march of top-flight pitchers that are the hallmark of the franchise.
No question Keppinger was a smart acquisition by GM Andrew Friedman. He's a player who could play multiple infield positions and provided the most skilled bat on the team in 2012, hitting .325, including a blistering .376 against left-handed pitching.
Still, the Rays need to begin cultivating their own hitters down on the farm (perhaps like 2012 first-round pick Richie Schaffer out of Clemson), given the financial constraints that keep them from competing for marquee free-agent hitters.
Which leads us to another part of the season that took a big hit.
The seeds were likely sown in last year’s ALDS, when the Texas Rangers’ beefier power bats knocked Tampa Bay out of the playoffs for a second straight season — with Adrian Beltre’s three homers in a Game 4 win and Mike Napoli’s key homer in the Game 5 clincher.
Rays ownership clearly felt it needed to increase its own power quotient in order to get deeper into the postseason and get past teams like Texas. That mindset spelled the end of the line for two of the Rays’ top 2011 performers: designated hitter Johnny Damon and first baseman Casey Kotchman.
Damon, even nearing the end of his possible Hall of Fame career, still had 582 at-bats with a .261 average and was known as a terrific clubhouse presence and leader. His downside, however, was his 16 homers as a DH.
Kotchman was one of the game’s top defensive first basemen and a St. Petersburg area product who hit .306 in 500 at-bats, though he only managed 10 homers.
The Rays opted not to bring back either of those players. And that poses one of those interesting 20-20 hindsight questions now that we’ve seen how their replacements fared.
The offseason signings of DH Luke Scott and the return of popular first baseman Carlos Pena certainly seemed intriguing at the time, even if they were taking the spots of two proven performers from 2011.
Each had ample power numbers on their resume but each carried some risk: Scott’s shoulder injury and major surgery that had cut short his 2011 season and kept him rehabbing through much of spring training; Pena’s notoriously low batting average and high-strikeout totals.
The two translated into a lot of outs when hits were needed.
In the end, neither player panned out. Friedman rolled the dice on Scott, banking that he could probably hit 25 homers.
But Scott wound up on the DL twice — with a back and oblique injuries — and, in spite of a strong finish, managed only 314 at-bats with a .229 average (including a team-record 0-for-41 drought), 14 homers and 55 RBI.
Would a healthy Scott have been the player the Rays envisioned? Maybe. And that’ll be one of the decisions they’ll weigh in the offseason.
Pena, meanwhile, began with a bang but eventually fizzled, hitting .197 with 19 homers. And while he got on base with 87 walks, he also fanned 182 times — the most of his career. It was a disappointing conclusion to what had been such a highly anticipated homecoming for the former Rays star.
The upshot of Scott-Pena was that the team wound up with two glaring holes in the power portion of the lineup for much of the season, and both wound up as part-time players in the end.
Now, Friedman’s challenge will be to figure out how to find some quality hitters to give the offense the consistency it lacks, a player or two who will not just get on base, but also provide some pop and move runners home.
The Rays hit .240 as a team. That gave them the rare distinction with Oakland (.238) of being the only two clubs since the 1972 World Champion A’s to win at least 90 games and hit .240 or worse.
Friedman reiterated Wednesday that he won’t dilute his arsenal of starting pitching, simply making a trade for the sake of it. But to get a promising offensive performer or two, he may need to part with one of his big-ticket starters.
And James Shields, who’ll earn $9 million in 2013, would certainly be enticing to a lot of teams given his spectacular work after the trade deadline — and free up some room on the Rays’ limited budget as well.
The good news for the Rays is that they’ve solved their shortstop dilemma. Switch-hitting Ben Zobrist certainly looks like the answer, after being shifted to the position for the stretch run.
Originally a shortstop, he looked right at home at the position and gives the Rays a strong hitter in the spot (.270, 20 homers, 39 doubles, seven triples, 97 walks and 74 RBI). That should make for some helpful stability to the infield, and Keppinger proved to be a solid second baseman.
The Rays also got a glimpse of what Chris Gimenez might do as a part-time catcher, batting .260 overall — including .357 against lefties.
Losing Upton to free agency — a virtual certainty — increases the need to find another right-handed power hitter. And if neither Scott nor Pena return, there’s a hole at first base (though Keppinger could man that spot if needed).
All of the above should make for an interesting — and important — offseason as the Rays return home. As the postseason begins, they’re left to ponder a World Series that might have been, and start thinking about to trying again next year.
