For the first time since the original "Back to the Future" was in movie theaters, the number 2, 3, and 4 teams all lost. Down went Clemson, Michigan and Washington, tossing what had appeared to be an orderly college football playoff into chaos.
Fortunately Outkick is here to make sense of the mess for you.
So here we go.
Let's start with what we 100% know.
1. Alabama is going to make the playoff.
With Auburn's loss to Georgia Alabama clinched the SEC West title. Now Alabama just has to split the games against Auburn and Florida/Tennessee in the SEC title game and the Tide will be the number one seed in the playoff.
I don't think Alabama will lose either game, but the Tide is such a lock for the playoff that Nick Saban could decide not to show up to play the SEC title game and Alabama would still be the number one overall team.
In fact, this year we don't even need a playoff at all.
Hell, we wouldn't even need a BCS title game.
Alabama is head and shoulders above everyone else in college football. That doesn't mean Alabama is 100% going to win the national title -- one of the playoff teams may have their best game of the season and Alabama might have its worst -- but there is zero suspense this year who the best team is, it's Alabama.
If you want the best case scenario for the SEC, what would happen if Florida ran the table to finish 11-2 and upset Alabama in the SEC title game? Then the Gators are probably in the playoff and Alabama, at 12-1, would probably be in the playoff as well.
So the SEC is not dead from the possibility of putting two teams in the playoff.
2. The Big Ten is going to make the playoff.
The big question now is which Big Ten team.
With Michigan's loss to Iowa, we are now in a three-way tie for first place in the Big Ten East. Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State have all beaten each other and are tied right now.
If you assume that Penn State will beat Rutgers and Michigan State -- two games Penn State will be big favories in -- then the Nittany Lions finish the season 10-2.
Ohio State has at Michigan State and then Michigan to finish its season.
Michigan has Indiana and then finishes at Ohio State.
Assuming that Penn State beats Rutgers and Michigan State and Ohio State beats Michigan State and Michigan beats Indiana then the Michigan at Ohio State game has several intriguing possibilities.
If Michigan beats Ohio State then the Wolverines win the Big Ten East and would advance to play Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game.
If Ohio State beats Michigan then Penn State would win the Big Ten East and advance to play Wisconsin -- assuming Wisconsin beats Purdue and Minnesota -- in the Big Ten title game.
I believe that if Wisconsin or Penn State wins the Big Ten at 11-2 that either of those teams would get a playoff spot. But the biggest question for the Big Ten is this, could Ohio State get a playoff spot as well without winning its division or its conference title if it finishes 11-1? That would be a fascinating question for the committee and depends on what the rest of the college football landscape looks like.
So if you're a Big Ten fan at this point, the best case scenario for your conference is Ohio State beating Michigan and sending Penn State to the Big Ten title game to play Wisconsin for a spot in the playoff. Because if Michigan wins the Big Ten at 12-1 the conference would definitely only get one team.
3. Clemson is still in the playoff if the Tigers finish 12-1.
There's no way the committee is putting 11-1 Louisville, which lost a head-to-head game, in to the playoff over ACC champ Clemson.
Right now Clemson has two regular season games left -- at Wake Forest and South Carolina -- and the ACC title game. If Clemson wins those three games, the Tigers are in the playoff.
If Clemson loses one of these games then I think Louisville, presuming the Cardinals finish 11-1, would leap Clemson and make the playoff instead.
Louisville plays Houston on this Thursday and then gets Kentucky to finish out the season.
So if you're a Louisville fan and you want to make the playoff, you need to root for Clemson to lose, Michigan to win out, and Washington lose again.
Now, I happen to think Louisville would beat Clemson on a neutral field right now, but guess what? Las Vegas isn't seeding this playoff and the committee can't overlook an actual game played on the field. And Clemson won that game.
4. What happens with Washington?
The Huskies are not out of the playoff race despite their loss to USC. In fact, Washington's loss to USC -- who I now have ranked as the ninth best team in the Outkick top ten -- was actually the best loss that any of the five losing top ten teams had this weekend.
Washington has Arizona State and then at Washington State left on its schedule. So long as Washington beats Arizona State then the game against Washington State will be to decide the Pac 12 North title.
If the Huskies beat Arizona State and Washington State to win the Pac 12 Northn then they're likely to get a pretty strong opponent in the Pac 12 title game.
Right now Colorado leads the Pac 12 South at 6-1 in conference, but Colorado hosts Washington State this weekend and the Cougars are presently 8-2, 7-0 in the Pac 12.
Colorado gets Washington State and Utah to finish its Pac 12 season.
USC plays at UCLA.
Utah plays Oregon and at Colorado.
If Colorado wins both games then the Buffs win the Pac 12 South and will be ranked in the top ten for the Pac 12 title game.
If Utah wins out then Utah wins the Pac 12 South.
If Colorado and Utah both lose a game then USC wins the Pac 12 South unless there's a three-way 7-2 tie.
If there is a three-way 7-2 Pac 12 South tie between Colorado, USC, and Utah then Utah would win that three-way tiebreak because the Utes are undefeated in the Pac 12 South.
The best case scenario for Washington is probably that Washington State beats Colorado this weekend to surge into the top 15 and that USC wins the Pac 12 South. Then Washington gets to finish its season with top 15 Washington State and play USC again in the Pac 12 title game and "erase" that loss.
It may be a controversial opinion, but given that 12-1 Washington would finish the season with two top 15 caliber wins back-to-back over Washington State and the Pac 12 South champion, I believe Washington, as the Pac 12 champ, would get in over any at large team.
5. Okay, so how do you rank the playoff contenders right now?
Let's assume that everyone wins out and I'll give you my potential outcomes.
I really think Alabama and Clemson are both in, so let's take both of them off the board. I also think that Washington's in at 12-1. So that leaves the Big Ten getting a single spot in the playoff. There are four potential teams that could claim that spot: 12-1 Michigan, 12-1 Ohio State, 11-2 Penn State or 11-2 Wisconsin.
So to answer your questions, I only believe that a one-loss non-division or conference champion gets in over Washington or Clemson if Washington or Clemson lose another game.
6. So what do 11-1 Louisville or 11-1 Ohio State need to have happen to make the playoff?
You guys need to finish 11-1 and for Washington or Clemson to lose down the stretch, opening up a spot for a non-playoff champion.
This will be, by far, the most contentious debate down the stretch of the season -- would 11-1 Ohio State or 11-1 Louisville get in over 12-1 Washington?
I think the answer is pretty clearly no.
Because I believe the committee is going to reward the conference title over a non-division and non-conference title.
Could I be wrong? Certainly.
Will the committee's decision be considered controversial no matter what they decide to do? Yep.
7. BUT 11-1 OHIO STATE HAS TO BE IN.
YOU HATE THE BUCKEYES! FUCK YOU, CLAY TRAVIS!
Welcome to my mentions as soon as this column goes up.
11-1 Ohio State would have four quality wins over top 15 teams this season: at Oklahoma, at Wisconsin, Nebraska and at home against Michigan.
Would that be demonstrably better than 12-1 Washington having three quality wins over top 15 teams at Utah, at Washington State, and neutral against top 15 USC, Colorado or Utah in the Pac 12 title game?
I just don't think so.
Okay, what about their losses?
Penn State and USC are roughly equivalent teams. (In fact, I think USC would be favored over Penn State right now). Granted Ohio State's loss was on the road and Washington's was at home, but I don't think that matters very much, especially if Washington gets the chance to beat USC on a neutral field to end the season.
The two teams have one common opponent, both teams crushed Rutgers.
So you can toss that detail out too.
I just don't see these resumes being that much different.
And certainly Ohio State's resume is not head and shoulders better than Washington's. And that's what I believe it would have to be to overcome Washington's conference title.
Plainly, Louisville's only quality win all season is over Florida State and the Seminoles are just barely a top 25 team. So I don't think there's any doubt that 12-1 Washington would get in over 11-1 Louisville or that Ohio State's resume at 11-1 would be much better than Louisville's as well.
Assuming Washington and Ohio State both win out, the debate would come down to 12-1 Washington against 11-1 Ohio State and I think Washington, as a conference champion, would be considered the superior resume over Ohio State.
8. Are there any other teams that are still in the playoff mix despite not getting much attention?
11-1 West Virginia, 10-2 Oklahoma and 11-2 Pac 12 champs Washington State, Colorado or Utah could all be in the mix. So could, believe it or not, 11-2 SEC champ Florida and 10-3 Pac 12 champ USC.
How could these teams make the playoff?
All of these teams would need 12-1 Michigan to emerge from the Big Ten. And they would also need Clemson or Louisville, potentially both, to lose additional games.
Then you could end up with a playoff that looked like this:
1. Alabama
2. Michigan
3. Clemson/Louisville
4. Florida/West Virginia/Oklahoma/Washington State/Colorado/Utah/USC
9. So what's the most chaotic scenario you could imagine?
I'm not even going to entertain the idea that Alabama loses to Auburn and the SEC East champ, but that would be the wildest possible outcome.
So in all my scenarios Alabama, at worst, splits these games and is in as the one seed.
In all my scenarios the Big Ten is going to get a team in -- either Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin, or Penn State.
So you have two playoff spots open after the SEC and Big Ten are in.
The cleanest possibility for the Big Ten is Michigan winning out and going 12-1. Then the rest of the Big Ten schools don't really have any at-large arguments. So let's do that and say Alabama and Michigan are in our playoff.
Then if Clemson lost the ACC title game and Louisville lost to Houston or Kentucky, the ACC would probably be left out of the playoff entirely too.
Then if Colorado, Washington State or Utah won the Pac 12 title at 11-2, they'd probably be in. Hell, if USC ran the table and beat Washington for a second time, could 10-3 USC, having won nine games in a row and just won the Pac 12 title actually make the playoff? Maybe.
And could 11-1 West Virginia or 10-2 Oklahoma or, even, 10-2 Oklahoma State with a blown call against Central Michigan that cost them a game end as the undisputed Big 12 champs making the playoff? Certainly.
So you could end up with a final four that looks like this:
1. Alabama
2. Michigan
3. Oklahoma/West Virginia/Oklahoma State
4. USC/Washington State/Utah/Colorado
10. So if you had to predict what you think happens, what would your projected playoff look like at the end of the season?
1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Big Ten champ either Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, or Wisconsin
4. Washington
And, by the way, remember when the people who fought the playoff tried to tell us it would make the regular season matter less?
I believe that ranks as the dumbest argument in college football history.
The playoff has made the regular season in college football matter more than it ever has before.
11. SEC power rankings 1-14:
To be honest, nothing matters after Alabama here. Because the Tide are by far the best team in the nation and then you have a ton of just okay teams. (Also, remember that I'm ranking teams based on the totality of their season. So A&M, despite losing two straight, is still ranked pretty high because the Aggies started off the season so strong.)
1. Alabama
2. LSU
3. Texas A&M
4. Auburn
5. Tennessee
6. Florida
7. Georgia
8. Arkansas
9. Ole Miss
10. Kentucky
11. Mississippi State
12. South Carolina
13. Mizzou
14. Vanderbilt
