Do your fantasy playoffs start this week? If so, there’s no better time to let our Position vs. Fantasy Defensive Points Allowed tool help you figure out what matchups to target.
As always, please remember that the players listed are mostly meant to be borderline guys, who need reasons for you to play or bench them. You won’t see recommendations to start guys like Aaron Rodgers and Arian Foster, because you should always start Aaron Rodgers and Arian Foster. Also, any league rankings mentioned reference fantasy ranking, and not real ones, unless otherwise noted.
Note: The fantasy points per game (FPPG) referenced below are from FOXSports.com standard leagues.
Thursday game: Browns at Steelers
Quarterbacks
Stay away: Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers (vs. Browns)
Did you know that the Browns have the NFL’s top-ranked pass defense, and the second stingiest against opposing fantasy quarterbacks with 11.9 FPPG allowed? Big Ben has thrown for fewer than 200 yards in two consecutive games, and has a very tough matchup tonight. If he’s a weekly matchup decision for you like he is for many of his owners, your other QB is probably a better option.
Also:
• Andy Dalton makes yet another appearance in this space thanks to his upcoming battle against the tough Texans (12.3 FPPG allowed to opposing quarterbacks). Dalton’s fantasy production has slowed down over the last couple of weeks, and this week’s game isn’t likely to help his owners.
• Colt McCoy has been a decent, dependable QB2 for his fantasy owners, and probably starts more often than not in two-quarterback leagues. Unfortunately, his visit to Pittsburgh tonight presents a matchup with the league’s fifth-best fantasy defense against opposing quarterbacks (13.3 FPPG). No, thanks.
Play, play, play: Rex Grossman, Redskins (vs. Patriots)
Who wouldn’t want a matchup against the Pats, who rank 29th with 21.4 FPPG allowed to opposing quarterbacks, and are last in the league with 310 passing yards allowed per game? Grossman may not be the best signal caller around, but he’s averaged 260 passing yards and a touchdown per game since getting his starting job back. If your QB1 is in a tough spot this week, don’t be shy about resting your fantasy playoff hopes on Rex’s shoulders.
Also:
• With the Ravens showing a renewed dedication to the running game, Joe Flacco has thrown only 73 passes in the last three games. However, he almost can’t help but pick up the pace against the Colts, who rank 30th with 21.6 FPPG allowed to opposing quarterbacks. Flacco won’t throw 40 times, but he’ll be more successful when he does air it out.
• Carson Palmer has a date at Lambeau Field, and while that may be a daunting task in real life, it’s good for his fantasy owners. The Packers win most of their games by a lot of points, which forces opponents to throw a lot in an effort to catch up. As a result, the Pack has the 30th-ranked pass defense in the NFL, and is 21st with 19.5 FPPG allowed to opposing quarterbacks. Don’t panic if Palmer has a bad first half, as he’ll be likely to pile up numbers in the second. Garbage time is your quarterback’s friend.
Running Backs
Stay away: Beanie Wells, Cardinals (vs. 49ers)
Wells’ rushing totals in his last five games: 20-62-33-228-67. Thanks for the predictability, Beanie. This week, Wells has a miserable matchup against the 49ers, who have the best rushing defense in fantasy (9.8 FPPG allowed to opposing RBs), reality (71.8 rushing yards per game) and any form of existence in between. Wells is too good to be a must-bench, but if you have a solid alternative, use it.
Also:
• Cedric Benson is often a reluctant start for fantasy owners: He gets the ball a lot, but averages fewer than four yards per carry. Against the Texans, who rank third in the league with 13.3 FPPG allowed to opposing running backs, he could have a long day. Do you think the Texans’ terrific defense will cause a Bengal to be in every “stay away” section of this week’s article?
• The Panthers’ backfield duo of Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams isn’t bad, but in addition to sharing the workload and competing with Cam Newton for goal-line carries, they’re about to face a Falcons’ defense that has been tough on opposing backs (14.3 FPPG). These guys aren’t likely to help you in Week 14.
Play, play, play: Ryan Grant, Packers (vs. Raiders)
James Starks missed practice on Wednesday, and his nagging ankle injury might keep him out in Week 14. That leaves Grant – and possibly rookie Brandon Saine – with the Pack’s backfield work against a Raiders’ defense that ranks 26th with 21.3 FPPG allowed to opposing runners. If you’re scrambling for a free agent who might have a productive 12-15 carries this week, Grant is an interesting option. Saine is as well for deeper leagues.
Also:
• If you’ve been starting Rashard Mendenhall all along, you’ve been benefitting from his touchdowns (five in the last four games), but worrying about his yardage totals (315 yards in his last six games). Tonight, he’ll run against a Browns’ defense that ranks 27th with 21.4 FPPG allowed to opposing running backs. The Steelers have a better chance for success on the ground than they do through the air in this matchup, so if Mendenhall is going to have a big game at all, it’s likely to be tonight. (Note: He’s listed as probable with back issues, so make sure he’s active before kickoff.)
• Ryan Mathews has two 100-yard games in a row, and gets to face a Bills’ defense that ranks 29th with 22.1 FPPG allowed to opposing running backs. Big game No. 3 seems like a good bet. You don’t need to be reminded to start Mathews at this point, right?
Wide Receivers
Stay away: Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs (at Jets)
Week four of the Tyler Palko Experience isn’t necessarily a bad thing for Bowe, as he’s caught 18 passes for 205 yards in the lefty’s first three starts. Unfortunately, Bowe has a looming date with Jets CB Darrelle Revis and his teammates, who rank third with just 16.3 FPPG allowed to opposing wideouts. If you’re ever going to bench Bowe, this is the spot.
Also:
• Hey, have you heard about the Texans’ defense? Not only are they good against quarterbacks and running backs – they’re ranked eighth with 18.5 FPPG allowed to opposing wide receivers. Cincinnati’s A.J. Green can take a seat for you if you have a solid alternative. We’re now three-for-three on Bengals …
• Bench Mike Wallace? Not in all cases, but maybe in some. Though Wallace has been a top-five fantasy wideout in 2011, over his last five games he’s caught 22 passes for 237 yards (along with three touchdowns), and has played second fiddle to teammate Antonio Brown in terms of targets. Also, he’ll face a Browns’ defense that has been the league’s best against opposing wide receivers (12.3 FPPG). If you have a difficult choice among your wideouts and Wallace is one of them, this is the week to consider sitting him out.
Play, play, play: Santana Moss, Redskins (vs. Patriots)
Moss and the ‘Skins face the Patriots, who are at the bottom of the league with 28.5 FPPG allowed to opposing wide receivers. With TE Fred Davis done for the season due to a suspension, Moss will almost certainly be Rex Grossman’s preferred target in the passing game. He’s caught nine passes for just 71 yards in two games since returning from an injury absence, but matchups don’t get much better than this.
Also:
• Detroit’s Nate Burleson has caught 25 passes for 278 yards and a score over his last four games, and will face a depleted Vikings’ defense that ranks 31st in the league with 25.4 FPPG allowed to opposing wideouts. Heck, this defense made Tim Tebow look like a good NFL passer last week. Calvin Johnson is still the Lions’ stud, but there’s more than enough fantasy goodness to go around for them in this game.
• San Francisco’s Michael Crabtree is here for the second straight week, mainly because he’ll match up against a Cardinals’ defense that has allowed 23.5 FPPG (24th in the league) to opposing wideouts. Crabtree has been emerging as a solid fantasy option lately, with 17 receptions for 270 yards and a touchdown in his last three outings.
• FYI, Cowboys WR Miles Austin is scheduled to return this week after missing four games due to a hamstring injury, and will face a Giants’ defense that has given up 24.5 FPPG to opposing wideouts. Start Austin if you have him.
Tight Ends
Stay away: Jermaine Gresham, Bengals (vs. Texans)
Congratulations to the Bengals for running the “stay away” table this week! The Texans’ defense ranks third with just 5.2 FPPG allowed to opposing tight ends, and even though Gresham has scored in two of his last four games, he’s more in the mix-and-match tier of tight ends than he is an elite, must-start option. Someone on the Bengals is likely to score against the Texans – meaning that one of the four players mentioned in this article should turn out to be a decent play – but those points will be very difficult to come by. If you’re playing the percentages, each Bengal mentioned – on his own – is a bad bet.
Also:
• With Dallas Clark out for the season, Jacob Tamme has been quietly emerging as a playable fantasy option, with 13 receptions for 144 yards over his last three games. Unfortunately, he’s about to battle a Ravens’ defense that has been the second-stingiest in the league against opposing tight ends (4.4 FPPG). If you’ve been thinking about getting Tamme in there, wait until he plays against the Titans in Week 15.
Play, play, play: Kellen Winslow, Buccaneers (at Jaguars)
The injury-ravaged Jaguars’ defense ranks 29th with 9.2 FPPG allowed to opposing tight ends. That bodes well for Winslow, who has caught 18 passes for 225 yards in his last three games. Start him unless your other option is Jimmy Graham, Rob Gronkowski, Antonio Gates, Jason Witten or Tony Gonzalez.
Also:
• Jake Ballard has become a solid if unspectacular safety valve for Eli Manning, with 33 receptions for 537 yards and three touchdowns on the season. This week, the Giants have a big Sunday night matchup against the Cowboys, who rank 23rd with 8.3 FPPG allowed to opposing tight ends. Ballard isn’t a great fantasy play, but if you’re desperate for tight end help, he’s owned in just 18.8 percent of FOXSports.com leagues, and could have a solid game.
Fantasy Football News and Notes | Week 14 Injury Report
