It is always dangerous to look at the standings too early in the season in any league, but especially in the NHL. We gathered around the laptop in November and saw that up was now down. Down was now up. And resources, payroll and talent levels didn't seem to matter too much as to where the team was in the playoff race.
Of course, when 15 games are played, things haven't sorted themselves out very far, but the Stars were No. 1 in the West on Nov. 8 and feeling like a million bucks (or like a $63 million payroll).
There was a sense of great optimism, but the fact Edmonton and Dallas were tops in the West and Vancouver was near the bottom gave everyone some level of pause about the long grind ahead.
The pace has slowed in Dallas, but everyone had to know that the pace of 22 points in the standings in 14 games (1.57 per game) was impossible to maintain for any team in hockey. Since then, the Stars have 21 points in 24 games (0.875 points per game). That pace will not be enough to find postseason hockey for any squad in the sport.
So where are the Stars as they near the halfway point of 2011-12?
That is against question I asked their new owner, Tom Gaglardi, after his team lost a close game with Detroit on Tuesday.
"I'm not sure yet. It is too soon for me to have an opinion," he said. "We have as good a third line as there is in the league. We like our fourth line, and they get us some scoring and they spend a lot of time in the other team's zone. Our top six just have to be more consistent.
"It has been frustrating because since our 11-3 start we haven't been able to prolong any win streaks and put some wins together like the good teams do. It's still early, but we got to find some consistency and put some wins together."
Gaglardi demonstrated he has hockey knowledge. Second, he hit on maybe the biggest issue with the Stars moving forward. Their "top six" is the department on the team that is largely in charge of scoring and power-play performance. I might also add to that the top pair of defenseman, but let's just keep talking about the "top six."
Gaglardi went on to talk about how strong the line with Jamie Benn (10 goals), Michael Ryder (17), and Loui Eriksson (14) has been recently, but the line with Mike Ribeiro (six goals), Brenden Morrow (seven) and Steve Ott (six) needs to show more scoring. The 41 goals for Benn's line and 19 for Ribeiro's suggest that you might have the dreaded one-line team. This, of course, is problematic for a number of reasons, not the least of which is that you are too easy to defend for the opponent.
Nobody would argue that, but perhaps this is where the puck is passed back to the Stars' new owner.
One could make the case that NHL teams build themselves based on the available resource. Since goal scorers are about the most expensive commodity in hockey, teams with very low payrolls have very few gifted scorers. This also applies to franchise-caliber defensemen, something else the Stars lack.
But, something that can be afforded in great supply for any roster is salt-of-the-earth warriors who are perfect checking line guys and will fight in the corner for every puck and give you everything they have. The Stars have lots and lots of those guys. That is why they are pesky. That is why they can compete with anyone in the league.
They have resolve, heart, and battle in great supply. In fact, you could suggest they have at least six players who would be perfect for the third line. Vernon Fiddler, Radek Dvorak, Eric Nystrom, Adam Burish, Ott and Morrow would all be wonderful third-line guys at this point of their careers.
But how many great "top six" scoring wingers do they have? Two or three. They need at least four.
You could argue that Ott or Morrow are both quite capable of filling one spot, but their offensive zone games are so similar (go to the net, take a beating, battle to the death, score a goal from tight) that it is problematic to put them on the same line around one of the more creative centers to ever pass through town.
They tried splitting them up earlier in the season and putting Ryder at right winger with Ribeiro and Morrow, and Ott at right winger with Benn and Eriksson. That didn't click, and it left nobody to take face-offs when Ribeiro was on the ice. (He is a noted poor face-off man, and the Stars have given all of his face-offs to Ott recently).
So, there is the pickle they are in. The problem is made worse when you note that both specialty teams (power play and penalty kill) are in the bottom third of the league.
And that ties it all together. What is their best trait? Scrappiness. Peskiness. And overall grit. As we saw last season, that can take you a certain distance, but it doesn't leave a whole lot of room for mistakes.
Last year, when injuries started taking their toll, the Stars lost some ground and were never able to fully recover. They seem to be stretched so thin because former owner Tom Hicks' regime reduced resources to a drip.
That is why Gaglardi's job is clear and vital: Turn that faucet of cash on.
Nobody means to spend freely and without strategy, but it will require some bold moves when they are available. The Anaheim Ducks are in the news for suggesting that everything is priced to move with their shattered season. Normally, you would laugh at the idea of the Ducks and Stars doing anything, but with new realignment, the Ducks are no longer rivals. If they are looking to move top-end pricey talent, I wouldn't waste a moment in picking up the phone.
Ryan Getzlaf is available? He's a center, but he is 26 and a monster. I think I would make room. Heck, I might be able to talk myself into 26-year-old Corey Perry to play the wing with Ribeiro.
The beauty with either of those players would be that they address your long-term needs of talent that is still young (as would Bobby Ryan). The Stars are actually a bit old, and as many players as they have under 25 who contribute, they also have a large number of regulars who are well past 30. These are all things for Stars general manager Joe Nieuwendyk to consider as they move forward.
In talking with several NHL personnel people in the past few days, it is clear that the Stars have very promising futures with Benn and Eriksson. Every team would love to add them, but a quick dose of reality also returns that nobody I spoke with placed Benn or Eriksson in the top seven forwards in the Pacific Division.
Patience is needed right now. The Stars will continue to battle on the ice as strategies are hatched. There is a chance that no bold strikes will happen until summer. Then, it will be Gaglardi and Nieuwendyk's job to sell free agents on the idea of coming to Dallas, which is never easy when competing with "original six" teams.
But, know this: After spending 30 minutes talking hockey with the man,
which
you can hear by clicking here, it seems clear to know that
not only is the owner thinking about these very topics, he is also
obsessed with figuring it out. Gaglardi will make changes, but he will also
think them through carefully and deliberately.
Most important, they will be on his mind.
Previous Stars owners cannot compete with that attribute. Even though there is plenty of work to do, there is reason for great optimism yet again for this organization.
