I keep up with college football recruiting, but mostly in a generalized way. That is, I'm not obsessing over individual recruit decisions, I'm watching the overall trend lines of recruiting class rankings.
Here are the present Rivals recruiting rankings.
If you are one of those fans who says, "Rankings don't matter!" you're wrong.
Every team that won a BCS title had at least three classes ranked in the Rivals top ten in the preceding four years. So, yeah, they matter.
Right now the SEC has six of the top nine classes and nine of the top 15 classes in the country.
Putting that into context, Ole Miss has the 15th best class in the country, but only the 9th best class in the SEC.
Recently I've stopped paying much attention to actual player announcements and just checked the 247 Sports crystal ball. If you aren't familiar with the crystal ball, 247 Sports allows those in the recruiting business to sign up for accounts and make predictions about where recruits will sign.
It's accuracy rate is pretty astounding.
You can click on the individual predictors and even check their track record.
With signing day one week from today, how many players are still uncommited? And on top of that, how many of the uncommited players truly appear to be in actual recruiting battles?
Not many.
Let's dive into the 247 Sports database.
There are six uncommited five stars based on 247 sports rankings:
10. Marlon Humphrey
95% to Alabama
(Edit, he just commited to Alabama while I was writing this).
11. Rashaan Evans
94% to Auburn
20. Lorenzo Carter
68% to Georgia, 27% to Alabama
21. Matt Elam
64% to Kentucky, 35% to Alabama
24. Adoree' Jackson
81% to USC, 16% to Florida
30. Malachi Dupre
95% to LSU
The biggest "battle" among these six players is Matt Elam, who's announcing tomorrow. Kentucky appears to have a substantial edge here.
But it looks like Alabama, Auburn, and LSU each have one five star in the bag.
And five of the six uncommitted five stars are definitely headed to the SEC.
What about the top four stars?
Just about all of them are decided as well.
34. Ermon Lane
84% to FSU
35. Travonte Valentine
85% to LSU
38. Malik McDowell
68% Michigan State, 26% Michigan
40. Damian Prince
69% Maryland
41. Solomon Thomas
85% Stanford
45. John Smith
77% USC
50. Damian Mama
100% USC
54. Budda Baker
66% Washington, 18% UCLA, 14% Oregon
72. Nifae Lealao
76% Stanford
80. Derrick Nnadi
54% Virginia Tech, 33% FSU
101. Michiah Quick
45% Oklahoma, 40% Notre Dame, 13% UCLA
122. Braden Smith
50% TCU, 33% Auburn, 13% Texas A&M
123. Roderick Johnson
100% FSU
151. Isaiah McKenzie
79% Notre Dame, 13% Florida
172. Kaleb McGary
88% Washington
185. Wesley Green
77% South Carolina, 22% Georgia
196. Isaiah Ford
84% Virginia Tech, 15% Louisville
203. Kenyon Frison
44% Nebraska, 33% Oklahoma, 22% Arizona State
222. Kenny Young
44% UCLA, 44% LSU
232. Steven Parker
95% Oklahoma
247. Jabril Frazier
60% Arizona, 40% USC
...
If you use 247's composite rankings instead of their individual rankings, here are the other four stars that remain uncommitted. Every single one of them is considered 80% or more likely to a certain school.
195. Chris Lammons
95% South Carolina
231. Andrew Williams
87% Auburn, 12% Clemson
245. Raymon Minor
83% Virginia Tech, 13% Marshall
263. Poona Ford
80% Texas
266. Richard Yeargin III
87% Clemson
301. Daniel Cage
86% Michigan State
312. Frank Ragnow
89% Minnesota
..
When you look at all these rankings, how many true uncertainies are there? Seven or eight, maybe? Sure, there will be a suprise or two on signing day, but most of those surprises are overrated for television drama. Remember, the televised hat ceremonies are designed to create a great deal of suspense, drive ratings, and allow the kids to have their "moments."
But lots of people know the decisions beforehand. Because just about every major decision is already made if you look at the crystal ball percentages on 247 sports.
Use this as a guideline, in the time I was writing this column, Marlon Humphrey commited, as predicted, to Alabama.
