SEC Coming Attractions: Five key storylines for No. 1 Alabama-No. 16 Missouri
Oddsmakers and the expected crowd will all be in No. 1 Alabama's favor when it meets No. 16 Missouri in Saturday's SEC Championship Game at the Georgia Dome.
Nick Saban's crew is without question the conference's blue bloods in crimson garb, but the reality is that, despite the perceptions of their respective divisions, this will be a meeting of the SEC's two most dominant programs of the past two seasons.
The Crimson Tide and Tigers are tied for the best SEC records in 2013-14 at 14-2 and both have a league-best 22 victories in that span.
Yes, the West is decidedly tougher than the East that Missouri calls home, but since '13, the Tigers are 4-1 vs. the superior division, which includes three Top 25 wins.
So while the title game feels like a mismatch, it's fitting the two best teams in the SEC these last two seasons will be taking this stage together.
Now, for the last time in this conference season, let's get on to the top storylines for the SEC this week:
A mere week ago we were still contemplating how the SEC could wind up with two teams in the inaugural College Football Playoff, what with it boasting multiple teams in three of the first four editions of the selection committee's rankings. But Mississippi State's loss to Ole Miss nixed that and now the most dominant conference of the BCS era is left with the potential that if the Crimson Tide goes down, so does any chance of making the Field of Four. It's impossible to think that the Tigers can climb high enough to get a playoff berth, even with the possibility that up to seven teams ahead of them could fall (that includes four matchups of ranked teams in No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 7 Arizona, No. 4 Florida State vs. No. 11 Georgia Tech, No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 13 Wisconsin and No. 6 Baylor vs. No. 9 Kansas State) given that 31-27 home defeat to eventual 4-8 Indiana. Should enough chaos reign the committee could still deem that Alabama at 11-2 is worthy or even consider No. 10 Mississippi State, which has three wins over teams ranked eighth or higher, but rational thinking would make it seem those are the last glimmers of hope for the SEC should Missouri pull the upset. And you thought we've seen outrage over the whole TCU/Baylor debate to this point? One of Mike Slive's last acts as commissioner may be lighting the pitchforks on the contingent that marches out of the SEC headquarters in Birmingham.
GRAB YOUR POPCORN: As far as torch-wielding mob scenes go, it gets no better than 'Young Frankenstein' and you can almost hear Slive belting out the final instructions "Get him alive if you can ... but get him." One way or the other, committee chair Jeff Long (the Arkansas athletic director) would be wise to come through.
The latest Heisman Trophy odds still have it down to a two-man race between Oregon's Marcus Mariota and Wisconsin's Melvin Gordon, but it's the debate as to who will join them where it gets interesting (for more on that check back tomorrow for the Heisman Forecast). Given Ohio State's J.T. Barrett suffering a season-ending injury and TCU's Trevone Boykin taking a step back the last two weeks with only lowly Iowa State to play, Alabama's Amari Cooper is one of the most logical choices to move fill up the third line on voters' ballots. He's coming off a record-setting Iron Bowl in which he caught 13 passes for 224 yards and three touchdowns, Cooper could be in for a stat line that looks very similar to Texas A&M's Josh Reynolds, who burned Missouri for five catches for 125 yards and two TDs. Do that and we could be looking at Cooper becoming the first wide receiver to earn a trip to the Heisman ceremony since Pitt's Larry Fitzgerald in 2003.
GRAB YOUR POPCORN: "Look," B-Rabbit/Eminem asked us "If you had one shot, or one opportunity to seize everything you ever wanted. one moment, would you capture it or just let it slip?" Will Cooper take down Papa Doc and book a trip to the Heisman ceremony or vomit spaghetti all over his sweater?
This may be the single most important part of this game considering Missouri's plan is predicated on creating pressure. It is tied for sixth in FBS with 3.33 sacks per game behind ends Shane Ray, who has an SEC-best 14, and Markus Golden (nine) and has five players with at least three QB stops when you factor in tackles Harold Brantley (five), Matt Hoch (three) and Lucas Vincent (three). But only four Power 5 teams have allowed less sacks than the Crimson Tide's 11 and over the last six games, they've given up just five. Alabama quarterback Blake Sims possesses the ability to escape pressure on his own, but if the Tigers are going to have a chance -- Sims threw three picks against Auburn, which Nick Saban afterward said were a byproduct of Sims being "a little anxious early in the game" -- it's going to have to force him into making mistakes (along with blanketing Cooper).
GRAB YOUR POPCORN: Chances are you're lying if you ever saw it, but before 'Sharknado' there was the '2-Headed Shark Attack,' with Carmen Electra and Brooke Hogan. As the tagline said '1 Body, 2 Heads and 6,000 Teeth!' That about sums up Ray, Golden and that vicious Missouri defense.
Maty Mauk went three straight SEC games without throwing a single TD pass (against South Carolina, Georgia and Florida) along with five interceptions and in that span and had a 36.9 completion percentage. That run included two of the conference's best passing defenses in the Bulldogs (No. 1) and Gators (No. 4). The Crimson Tide are 10th in the league, giving up 219.7 yards per game and just gave up 456 yards to Auburn's Nick Marshall, but before that game sat at 198.2 (26th in the nation). The weak link of the Tide's defense is their cornerbacks and while Mauk's overall numbers aren't spectacular (53.5 completion rate), he's thrown two picks in the last five games. If Mauk performs like he has of late, he has the added dimension of his legs (336 yards on the season) to hurt an Alabama D that's been susceptible to running QBs. But if the stage or the pressure of Reggie Ragland and Co. gets to him, it will put even more of an onus on the Tigers defense to set the tone.
GRAB YOUR POPCORN: It's the duality of a person or as Dr. Jekyll put it "man is not truly one, but truly two." The Jekyll/Hyde story has been long adapted, from movies of the original story to Batman's Two-Face, but we'll focus on the Eddie Murphy version and Missouri is going to need Mauk at his Buddy Love smoothest to take down the Tide.
Along with the aforementioned success since joining the SEC, Gary Pinkel's Tigers have five division titles since 2007 in all (three of those came in the Big 12 North in 2007, '08 and '10), but it hasn't won a championship. While Missouri is 4-3 against the vaunted West since joining the SEC, two of those wins are against Texas A&M (2013 and this season) and the other victories were over Ole Miss in '13 when it went 3-5 in the league and last Saturday vs. Arkansas, which despite a late surge was 2-6 in the SEC. The Tigers were steamrolled 42-10 by Alabama on Oct. 13, 2012 and fell to Auburn 59-42 in last year's title game. A victory over one of the West's long-standing powers would go a long way toward getting the selection committee to gloss over that ugly loss to the Hoosiers when putting together the New Year's Six matchups. Should the Tigers suffer another bad loss the biggest repercussion isn't that it will strengthen the thoughts that the East is a mess (having a Georgia team that beat Missouri 34-0 watching from home does that), but that a program that has an enviable resume in the nation's toughest conference isn't going to get the respect it probably deserves.
GRAB YOUR POPCORN: It's a simple wish and one that Aretha Franklin belted out in 'The Blues Brothers,' and well, we'll let The Queen of Soul take it from here.
