MINNEAPOLIS -- The inaugural big moment in Flip Saunders' executive career is so far out of his control, he's barely even glanced at the particulars.
"I'm not sure what it is," the Minnesota Timberwolves president of basketball operations said Friday during his weekly segment on KFAN 100.3 FM, when asked of his team's chance at landing a top-three pick in next month's NBA Draft. "I don't even want to look at it."
By 9 p.m. Tuesday night, Saunders will have a much better idea of what's possible with the Timberwolves' first pick under his general management. The annual -- and, in Twin Cities circles, dreaded -- ping-pong ball ritual better known as the NBA Draft Lottery has arrived, a drummed-up but ultimately completely chance-based evening where teams' personnel fates hang, somewhat, in the balance.
And, though Saunders may be intentionally unaware, the Timberwolves' odds of selecting high are selectively low.
Not that that's anything new.
After finishing last in the Western Conference's Northwest Division with a 31-51 record this past season, Minnesota's currently slotted ninth in the draft order with only a 6.11-percent chance of moving up. Unless their name is one of the first three drawn Tuesday night at Disney/ABC's Time Square Studios in New York, the Timberwolves likely will stay at No. 9, an 81.31-percent chance, but could fall as far as the 12th slot.
They've a measly 1.7-percent chance at the top pick; the numbers favor 2012-13 cellar dweller Orlando (20-62) with a 25-percent chance at No. 1, though the team with the best odds has picked first just twice in the lottery's 19-year history.
Minnesota's also locked into the 26th overall pick, giving the Timberwolves two first-round attempts to build around point guard Ricky Rubio and forward Kevin Love.
"We are in a good position to add to our current roster," said Love, who will represent Minnesota at the lottery. "Hopefully I can bring us some luck."
The Timberwolves seem due for some yet again.
In 15 lottery appearances, the organization's retained its draft position six times and fallen on eight occasions. Never has it moved up, nor has it picked higher than second.
Ironically, or maybe not, Minnesota's best Draft Lottery fortune came via a three-spot drop in 1995. The Timberwolves picked Kevin Garnett No. 5 overall that year.
"You can get lucky," said a sarcastic Saunders, then the head coach in Minneapolis. "I've been fortunate where I've been in a situation (as head coach of the Washington Wizards in 2010) where we had the five, the fifth pick, and we got No. 1 with John Wall, and I was in a situation where we dropped from No. 2 to No. 5 and, unfortunately, we got Kevin Garnett, which ended up really being the No. 1 pick.
"Whoever, whatever pick we have, we're gonna take the best player at that pick."
Given Minnesota's shooting woes last season and its high chances of drafting ninth Thursday, June 27, that player could be a guard like C.J. McCollum out of Lehigh or Kentavious Caldwell-Pope of Georgia. Saunders also spoke highly of Indiana guard Victor Oladipo, though it's likely he'll be off the board by the time the Timberwolves make their preliminary selection.
The No. 9 pick, historically at least, doesn't guarantee a first-round flop. All-stars Joakim Noah (2007), Andre Iguodala (2004), Amare Stoudemire (2002), Shawn Marion (1999), Dirk Nowitzki (1998) and Tracy McGrady (1997) all were taken ninth overall.But this year's draft class doesn't feature the depth of some past. College one-and-dones Nerlens Noel (Kentucky) and Ben McLemore (Kansas) are widely considered the favorites to be nabbed first overall, with Oladipo, Michigan guard Trey Burke, Syracuse guard Michael Carter-Williams and Georgetown swing man Otto Porter rounding out the perceived top of the heap.
Behind them, it's a crapshoot comparable to the lottery itself.
"I think it goes in clumps," Saunders said. "What I mean by that is you probably have a list of one to 11, and some people that are going to be one in those 11 is probably split up on who they would take. So you're gonna get a player that you might like at seven, eight, nine that some people (had as a) one or two, and vice versa."
The optimist takes Saunders' appointing of Love to make the trip to New York as a Draft Lottery victory in itself given the all-star's somewhat strained relationship with the franchise under former president David Kahn. Starting at 7 p.m. in front of a national ESPN audience, Love will be the Timberwolves community's lead ambassador as it crosses its collective fingers.
What happens after, well, that's for the ping-pong balls to decide.
"Here's what I told our guys: we've got a 50-50 chance," Saunders said. "We're either gonna get (a top-three pick), or we're not. That's how I'm looking at it."
