We love to discuss and analyze hitting and we love to discuss and analyze pitching, but when it comes to fielding, we often just lump it in with pitching and move on to cleaning the kitchen or preventing the kids from setting the TV on fire. Well put down that sponge and don that flame-retardant suit because we’re going to talk about fielding!
A quick perusal of the AL Central standings reveals a few things. The Royals still think they are in the 2014 playoffs. The Twins don’t know they’re not very good. The Tigers don’t know they’re too old. The White Sox can apparently sign whomever they want and they’ll still be the White Sox. And at the bottom, Cleveland fields the ball like their gloves are made of actual gold. Contrary to anything awards-related you might have heard, this is not good. It is a problem for more reasons than irony and it is a primary reason the Indians are where they are in the standings.
But I’m presupposing here. Cleveland is allowing 4.6 runs per game. Only Boston (4.8) is giving up more among American League teams. The problem doesn’t sound like fielding; it sounds like pitching! Let’s see.
The Indians have the seventh-worst ERA in baseball so you’d think their pitching would be less hot and more hot garbage, but look at their Fielding-Independent Pitching (FIP). If you take the fielding out of it, which is what FIP seeks to do, Cleveland’s pitching staff has been seventh-best in baseball. This gap between ERA and FIP is telling us Indians pitchers have done their job effectively while Indians fielders have resembled pinball flippers in both range and sure-handedness.
But maybe FIP isn’t your bag. In that case, let’s consider the two ways a team can get outs. The first is strikeouts. Indians pitchers have struck out 421 opposing hitters, tops in baseball. So it’s not that. The other way is to turn batted balls into outs and, as it turns out, the Indians are, technically speaking, awful at this. This season they’ve converted 67.5 percent of balls in play into outs. That’s worst in baseball. You never want to be worst in baseball in anything, let alone something important like, say, fielding the ball.
In fact, it’s even worse than that. The Indians are historically awful at fielding baseballs. Since 1950, only the 2007 Tampa Rays have been worse than the Indians’ current 67.5 percent mark. For context, the Royals are best this season at 73.6 percent. The difference between the Indians and Royals is like giving the other team two hits each game. Just giving them extra hits. Extra hits are going to lead to extra runs and (if you play it out to the end) extra sad Cleveland fans and goodness knows there are more than enough of those already.
The 2004 Red Sox famously traded franchise icon Nomar Garciaparra for two lesser hitters in Orlando Cabrera and Doug Mientkiewicz because Theo Epstein felt the team’s defense, with Garciaparra at shortstop, would prevent them from being able to win a championship. Cabrera and Mientkiewicz played important roles in strengthening Boston’s defense, which helped them win their first World Series win in 86 years. The Indians aren’t in the same position at the end of May that Boston was at the trade deadline, but coming into the season Cleveland was picked by many experts to reach the postseason. They might still make it despite their slow start, but unless their defense improves, this does seem awfully unlikely.
The good news is this isn’t a fatal flaw. Like any aspect of a club, it can be overcome provided the other aspects are good enough. Last season the Tigers were second to last in turning batted balls into outs but they still made the playoffs, while the Mariners were second best but didn’t make the playoffs. Still, it makes intuitive sense that it would be difficult to make the playoffs while consistently getting fewer outs on batted balls than your opponents. Doing so involves likely both an elite offense, and it helps if the pitching staff is particularly good at striking out opposing hitters. Of course, last year’s Tigers had both. The Indians have a nice start with their pitching staff, but their offense doesn’t yet measure up to the 2014 Tigers. The important point is defense is not destiny, just a component of it.
As for who specifically is at fault for Cleveland’s woeful defense ... well, the list would be shorter if we ticked off who isn’t at fault. Going by UZR (available at FanGraphs.com!), the worst offenders to receive regular playing time are Michael Bourn, Jose Ramirez, Michael Brantley, Carlos Santana, and David Murphy. When you consider that only seven fielders back up the pitcher at any given time, having five very bad ones, even if they are not always playing at the same time, constitutes a lot.
The Indians are stuck with Carlos Santana at first base, unless they want to shift him to DH in place of Nick Swisher. At shortstop, they could call up super-prospect Francisco Lindor to replace Ramirez. We don’t have numbers for Lindor, but the scouting reports have been very good so it’s relatively safe to assume he would be better than Ramirez. However, unless Lindor can cover the entire outfield, too, the Indians’ problems will remain. Brantley is obviously too good a hitter to not play, and the team remains committed to Bourn, who’s signed for big money through next season. Unless there are some trades to be made for better defenders, the best the Indians can do might be improving from historically awful to just bad. The thing is, if the offense improves a bit and the pitching staff continues to perform as they have, that might be enough.
Today’s fielding stats can be unreliable, especially in small doses, but even so they’re more reliable than errors, assists, and fielding percentage. They should be considered and weighed with knowledge of the sample involved and, when possible, compared to what you see on the field yourself. With the Indians though, there shouldn’t be much of an argument. They simply don’t make enough outs when the ball’s put in play.
